Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff use historical data from 66 co

ernational Macroeconomics, by Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff, MIT Press, 1996. e This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, Princeton University Press, 2009, (selected chapters). Readings: Readings can be accessed online or are available on Reserve at

ivate investment, dragging growth down. Yet economists have struggled to specify when a country needs to worry about its debt load. In a 2010 paper Carmen Reinhart, now a professor at Harvard Kennedy School, and Kenneth Rogoff, an economist at Harvard University, seemed to provide an answer. They argued that G

two main studies providing the alleged intellectual justification for austerity — Alberto Alesina and Silvia Ardagna on "expansionary austerity" and Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff on the dangerous debt "threshold" at go percent of G.D.P. The problem is that the studies did not hold up under scrutiny. Becaus

5 percentage points, more than in any other country; at this rate, they could reach sustainable debt levels in two years or so." Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, the leading experts on financial crises, argue that the United States is performing better than most countries in similar circumstances. U.S. consu

programmes and letting down foreign creditors, countries may find it easier to disappoint the foreigners. Defaults have been common in the past, as Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff showed in their book, "This Time is Different". Adam Smith, a founding father of economics, noted in "The Wealth of Nations" that "w

) showed Federal revenue sufficient to support entitlement spending + interest payments until ZOG0E — 35 years later than current projection. Note: *Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff observed from 3,700 historical annual data points from 44 countries that the relationship between government debt and real GDP gr

change. — Foreigners own 46% (and rising) of USA Inc.’s debt, per Treasury Department — Are they going to keep funding USA Inc.’s spending? Note: *Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff observed from 3,700 historical annual data points from 44 countries that the relationship between government debt and real GDP gro

aBaNAGAANANA OG AA 1 1 6 7 1 2 4 3 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 Top 1-25 Global $32,438 $47,081 -3% 81% $2,790 34,632 57,937 -2 100 2,885 Note: “Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff observed from 3,700 historical annual data points from 44 countries that the relationship between government debt and real GDP gro