ment Strategy Group, Datastream, Global Financial Data. * We define “severe” recessions according to those identified by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in “Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes” (2014), as well as the 1937 recession (a continuation of the 1929 recession) and the

cent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We note that while Reinhart and Rogoff’s observations are based on ‘gross debt’ data, in the U.S., debt held by the public is closer to the European KP countries’ definition of government