Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] Japan Investment Strategy Nikkei to 20,000: Inventory cycle upturn — cyclicals; inflation — banks, insurance Investment Strategy Bullish equities 2017; rotation into cyclicals, banks, insurance We are bullish Japan equities for 2017 and we estimate the Nikkei 225 index will recover to 20,000 by end-2017 (see $/¥’s eventual surge: Buy Nikkei 06 September 2016). Our new Chief Japan Economist Izumi Devalier forecasts above-consensus Japan GDP growth and inflation in 2017, which is also supportive of our bullish equities scenario (see Ready for ignition 18 November 2016). We expect rotation into cyclicals, banks and insurance as explained below. 1) Upturn in inventory cycle: Defensives—Cyclicals We expect cyclicals to outperform defensives, premised on our end-2017 $/¥ estimate of ¥120, and this is supported by our above-consensus economic growth outlook. Our Japan economist sees a shift to fiscal easing, firms countering the tight labor market by increasing capex, and estimates industrial production to grow 3.5% and 3.6% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. With the inventory cycle exiting a “contraction” phase and entering a “recovery” phase, conditions are likely to remain conducive to cyclicals outperforming defensives (Chart 1, Exhibit 3). 2) Higher inflation, rates: Deflation stocks— Inflation stocks Up to 1H16, the Japan equity market saw continued preference for deflationary stocks as domestic inflation remained subdued and the JGB curve underwent excessive bull flattening. Defensives outperformed cyclicals (Chart 1), growth outperformed value (Chart 2), and stocks that benefit from a low-yield environment (REITs) outperformed the converse (banks, insurance; Chart 3). However, we expect conditions to reverse into 2017. We see US Treasury yields rising and Japanese core CPI inflation recovering to +1.4% yoy by 2018 and core-core to +1.1% yoy. Stronger inflation and higher foreign yields should steepen the JGB yield curve abovelQyr, while below 10yr should escape from downward pressure as Bo) rate cut expectations recede. Against this backdrop, we expect to see a rotation from deflation to inflation stocks, which in addition to cyclicals means banks and insurance should outperform REITs within the financial sector (Chart 3). This is also in line with the global rotation expected by Michael Hartnett (The Flow Show: The Inflation Era Begins 10 November 2016). 3) Nikkei winner of steeper UST and strong macro In a scenario of strong external demand and US rate hikes (particularly with curve steepening), Japan equities tend to be the winner on a local currency basis, led by cyclicals, banks and insurance stocks (Exhibit 4). Resurgence in the “Japan macro trade” of short yen / buy equities is also a possibility. Our Buy-rated stocks in bank, insurance and cyclical sectors are listed in Table 1. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of MLPF&S and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Merrill Lynch entities that take responsibility for this report in particular jurisdictions. BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 5 to 6. 11687576 Timestamp: 17 November 2016 03:30PM EST Bankof America Merrill Lynch 18 November 2016 Investment Strategy Japan Shusuke Yamada, CFA >> FX/Equity Strategist Merrill Lynch (apan) +81 3 6225 8515 [email protected] Exhibit 1: Sector rotation and inventory cycle Slowdown Inventory Expansion 8 Defensives = ee June "12 faite fea See | June ‘15 k ‘| Phe Fundamentals 2 ow June ‘14. i . axGt Beg Prod action 2 4 6 8 10 Contraction Recovery Cyclicals Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Haver Exhibit 2: Shares rated Buy by our analysts in cyclical, bank and insurance sectors* Company i Ticker Company Ticker Company Ticker Mitsubishi UFJ FG Japan Post MS8AD 7182.JP 8725JP | JRCental | 9022JP Bank Holdings Sompo SMFG 8316 JP 8630 JP Nintendo | 7974JP Holdings ResonaHo = ezoeJp | S™*ESY | anes up | Recruit | 6008 JP Chem Mitsubishi Elec: 6503JP | FUJIFLM | 4901JP | Onentalland | 4661 JP Nidec 6594 JP Sony 6758 JP_| Fuji Heavy Ind} 7270 JP Hitachi 6501JP | NTTDATA | 9613JP | Suzuki Motor | 7269 JP Panasonic : 6752 JP NSSMC 5401 JP 8306 JP. Dai-ichi Life 8750 JP JR East 9020 JP Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research *Market cap above 1.5trn JPY except bank, insurance shares HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014404

Risks: Geopolitics, diplomacy and US economic cycle The biggest risk to our scenario is the implications for Japan’s diplomatic and geopolitical environment of the Donald Trump presidency in the US. The likelihood of agreement on the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) has already declined and been priced into the market, but any downward spiral in Japan-US relations would likely be further negative for Japan equities near-term. A rise in protectionism would be negative for stocks with high US export exposure. Meanwhile if the US economy slows or enters recession and the protectionist response weakens USD, it would be negative for Japanese cyclicals, particularly exporters, due to stronger JPY and potential trade conflicts. Moreover, a potential improvement in US-Russia (US-China) relations under the new US President most likely implies a relative worsening in Japan-Russia (Japan- China) relations. On the other hand, we expect Japan to move closer to Europe under such a scenario, raising the incentive to sign the Japan-EU EPA (Economic Partner Agreement), positive for related stocks. If the Trump presidency tips the US towards isolationism, we expect Japan’s spending on defense to increase. If this results in higher spending on Japan’s Self Defense Forces (rather than compensating for US spending on Japan-based US military), Japan’s defense-related stocks would be beneficiaries, and it could reshape the arms industry in Japan. Chart 1: Sector rotation and inventory cycle 130.0 40 125.0 4 120.0 115.0 20 110.0 ! I 40 100.0 iif rh Ine pet pol UT Lome 0 90.0 | /\ Defensive Defensive 85.0 ¥ | 80.0 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 memes Industrial production - inventory (3m mva yoy%) —— SCI Japan cyclical/defensive Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Haver Cyclical = Industrials, consumer discretionary, IT, materials Defensive = Healthcare, telecom, consumer staples, utilities Calculated cyclical and defensive % change using monthly index return and index weight Chart 2: Japan — High Beta PB vs. Low Beta PB 2.0 High Beta PB / Low Beta PB 0.4 5 0.2 a 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Quantitative Strategy, MSCl, IBES Global Quant Panorama: Surf for longer 14 November 2016 BankofAmerica <2 2 Japan Investment Strategy | 18 November 2016 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014405

Exhibit 3: Sector rotation and inventory cycle Chart 3: Higher inflation/yields suggests banks will outperform REITs Slowdown Inventory Expansion Defensives June '12 Fundamentals June '14 Production June '13 Contraction Recovery Cyclicals Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Haver 23 09 07 05 e SF SF SF 9 eee TSE Bank/ TSE REIT Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Exhibit 4: Reactions to US Treasury curve moves (%, simple average of past 43 quarters) — Japan equities have outperformed during bear-steepening led by cyclicals, banks and insurance 12 5 10 + 8 4 Japan Sector = cyclical outperform on UST bear-steepening 44 34 0 4 USDJPY DXY MSCI JP MSCIJP/ ex JP m Bear steep = Bear flat Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg. Discretionary Financials IT Industrials Energy Telecom Staples Utilities | Health care m Bull steep m Bull flat Curve movements based on 2yr move and 2s10s move (Bloomberg US Treasury yield index), so includes twist movements, but even if we exclude these implications do not materially change. Bear steepening (2yr + 16bps, 2510s +33bps) = 11 quarters, bear flattening (2yr +26bps, 2510s -20bps) = 10 quarters, bull steepening (2yr -48bps, 2510s +28bps) = 10 quarters, bull flattening (2yr -27bps, 2s10s -30bps) = 12 quarters Bankof America Merrill Lynch Japan Investment Strategy | 18 November 2016 3 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014406

Table 1: Shares rated buy by our analysts in cyclical, bank and insurance sectors* , rr ‘ MKT CAP Company Name Ticker Industry (JPX definition) Price ‘Billion Yen) Analyst Name Mitsubishi UFJ FG 8306 JP Banks 683 9.674 Futoshi Sasaki Japan Post Bank 7182 JP Banks 331 5,990 Futoshi Sasaki SMFG 8316 JP Banks 4190 5,925 Futoshi Sasaki Resona HD 8308 JP Banks 538 1,251 Futoshi Sasaki Mitsubishi Elec 6503 JP Electric Appliances 592 3,418 Mikio Hirakawa Nidec 6594 JP Electric Appliances 10460 3,035 Masashi Kubota Hitachi 6501 JP Electric Appliances 588 2,658 Mikio Hirakawa Panasonic 6752 JP Electric Appliances 033 2,033 Mikio Hirakawa Dai-ichi Life 8750 JP Insurance 850 2,202 Futoshi Sasaki MS&AD Holdings 8725 JP Insurance 3405 2,085 Futoshi Sasaki Sompo Holdings 8630 JP Insurance 3684 1,506 Futoshi Sasaki Shin-Etsu Chem 4063 JP (Chemicals 8328 3,599 Takashi Enomoto FUJIFILM 4901 JP (Chemicals 4095 1,906 Hiroyasu Eguchi Sony 6758 JP Electric Appliances 3226 4,075 Mikio Hirakawa NTT DATA 9613 JP Information & Communication 5530 1,551 Hiroyasu Eguchi NSSMC 5401 JP lron & Steel 2384 2,266 Takashi Enomoto JR East 9020 JP Land Transportation 9542 3,/43 Yasuhito Tsuchiya JR Central 9022 JP Land Transportation 17825 3,672 Yasuhito Tsuchiya Nintendo 1974 JP (Other Products 26050 3,129 Hiroyasu Eguchi Recruit HD 6098 JP Services 4340 2,453 Yoshiyuki Kinoshita Oriental Land 4661 JP Services 5957 1,991 Rie Sakai Fuji Heavy Ind 1270 JP [Transportation Equipment 4320 3,371 Kei Nihonyanagi Suzuki Motor 1269 JP [Transportation Equipment 3711 1,637 Kei Nihonyanagi Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research *Cyclical sectors = Industrials, consumer discretionary, IT, materials in GICS definition *Market cap above 17.5trn JPY except bank, insurance shares *Exclude Fast Retailing Bankof America 4 Japan Investment Strategy | 18 November 2016 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014407

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