es. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026905 --- PAGE BREAK --- Sources: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver. Endnotes: (1) Kate Davidson and Sarah Chaney, “Fed Chair Powell Sees ‘Remarkably Positive Set of Economic Circumstances,” The Wall Street Journal,

earnings data for production and nonsupervisory employees, ~80% of the private sector, is available back to 1964. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Haver. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Haver. Of course, the recent backup in interest rates is providing equity investors with another source of angs

Cc fo?) f=] —_ N oO t+ wo . . 7 : : oS SoS o oo So So oS So Oo x x x x —- x Qatar Abu Dhabi Kuwait SaudiArabia Dubai RRS RRRKRKRKCKKRRKRKKAA Source: Haver, IMF, Saudi Ministry of Finance, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. 2015 data, Source: Haver, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Implied rate of re

uwait SaudiArabia Dubai RRS RRRKRKRKCKKRRKRKKAA Source: Haver, IMF, Saudi Ministry of Finance, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. 2015 data, Source: Haver, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Implied rate of return on SAMA reserve assets Investment income and transfer of profits of public entities for K

sives June '12 Fundamentals June '14 Production June '13 Contraction Recovery Cyclicals Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Haver 23 09 07 05 e SF SF SF 9 eee TSE Bank/ TSE REIT Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Exhibit 4: Reactions to US Treasury curve

Jan-15 memes Industrial production - inventory (3m mva yoy%) —— SCI Japan cyclical/defensive Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Haver Cyclical = Industrials, consumer discretionary, IT, materials Defensive = Healthcare, telecom, consumer staples, utilities Calculated cyclical and

e US economy could not withstand a withdrawal Latin America 2,747 754 1,010 28 of stimulus right now, but I also do not see the Fed actively Source: Haver. Data as of Q4 2010. withdrawing it. Whatever rain dance the Fed is doing to keep inflation low, they better keep doing it. A chart I saw on the hi

1% | 0% t t t t t t t t t t t t t t 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: Investment Strategy Group, Haver. Of course, the recent backup in interest rates is providing equity investors with another source of angst. Yet our work suggests there are several

evaluation for the Turkish lira in 2018. (1) 2019 inflation as of April 2019. 10 Source: Investment Strategy Group, IMF, Statistical Center of Iran, Haver, Bonbast, Bloomberg. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026954 --- PAGE BREAK --- Investment Management US Military Signals Readiness to Respond Division Abraham L

1000 60 900 40 800 =— Percentage of Countries with J. ——MSCI EM, RS 20 700 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Haver, Bloomberg Chart 29: EM cyclicals outperform as China’s NOMINAL GDP recovers. More to go. eee SCI EM cyclicals/EM defensives price index, LS 180 =

S2SSZFSSSRSPESPSLZESS 5 8 gpg = 8 & & & Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Haver, EPFR Bankof America “2 Global Rates, FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016 27 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014757 --- PAGE BREAK --- Best V