tedtt yield 12/80 12/84 12/88 12/92 12/96 12/00 12/04 12/08 12/12 200 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, MSCI, Datastream Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Datastream European Yield Screen The rising rates backdrop has left yield not quite as scar

0 066 = G/99—s—«<OG/O2—sC«OG/OS.s«OG/OS=—OG/11 (06/14 06/96 8606/99) (OG/02—sCO6/NSsC«G/OSS(G/11 S(O /14 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Datastream, MSCI, IBES Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Datastream, MSC The other metric that illustrates the valuation overhang in Europe is the ri

isis highs. % 700 639 600 500 + 400 300 + 1951 1959 1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 Data through 03 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Datastream. The anemic (but steady) pace of this recovery has fueled a debate about its causes. The theories fall into six categories: e A “hangover” from the

Saudi 12m Fwd PE 27 EM 12m Fwd PE 25 Average 23 eoccccce Average 2.1 1.9 nhs 1.5 1.3 14 09 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0 10 (12181 8H Source: DataStream, |/B/E/S, Bloomberg, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Source: DataStream, |/B/E/S, Bloomberg, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Research Interestingly, no

ients maintain their strategic allocation to US equities. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026905 --- PAGE BREAK --- Sources: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver. Endnotes: (1) Kate Davidson and Sarah Chaney, “Fed Chair Powell Sees ‘Remarkably Positive Set of E

ation to US equities. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026920 --- PAGE BREAK --- Sources: Investment Strategy Group, Bank for International Settlements, Bloomberg, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver, International Monetary Fund, Teneo Intelligence. Endnotes: (1) Kate Davidson and Sarah Chaney, “F

(The Wall Street Journal, July 24, 2009). Sources: Investment Strategy Group, Dow Jones, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Bloomberg, Datastream, Platts. The Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research referred to in this email may be available by requesting a copy from your Private Wealth Prof

• Am Feb Mar Apt May in JJ Aly Sep Oct Nov Dec ■ Median MSCI US performance (%mom) ■% of line market is up 'Median since 1970. Source: Datastream, J.P. Morgan. 60% 80% At% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Our portfolio continues to trade at a forward EV/EBITDA (gross cash flow) multiple di

• Am Feb Mar Apt May in Ad Atm Sep Oct Nov Dec ■ Median MSCI US performance (%mom) ■% of line market is up 'Median since 1970. Source: Datastream, J.P. Morgan. 60% 80% FO% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Our portfolio continues to trade at a forward EV/EBITDA (gross cash flow) multiple di

• Jan Feb Mar Apt May an JJ Ac Sep Oct Nov Dec ■ Median MSCI US performance (%mom) ■% of line market is up 'Median since 1970. Source: Datastream, J.P. Morgan. 60% 80% At% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Our portfolio continues to trade at a forward EV/EBITDA (gross cash flow) multiple di

(RHS) 80 60 40 20 0 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Dec/09 Dec/10 Dec/11 Dec/12 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/16 Dec/17 Source Datastream Sales by end-market (2016) Mining. Chemical & Water 1% Other steel 11% Packaging 4% Transformation 12% Some: Deutsche Bank Auto 20% Other sal

• Am Feb Mar Apt May in JJ Aly Sep Oct Nov Dec ■ Median MSCI US performance (%mom) ■% of line market is up 'Median since 1970. Source: Datastream, J.P. Morgan. 60% 80% At% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Our portfolio continues to trade at a forward EV/EBITDA (gross cash flow) multiple di

ted real bond yield, inverted (rhs) -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Datastream, Bloomberg Finance LP Figure 2: We expect 14% EPS growth in the Euro area in 2016, driven by a cyclical rebound in earnings Euro area EPS growth U

3.48 12.50 * High inflation regime and controls prevent to have a valid market reference. Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloomberg Finance LP, Datastream; as of Dec 07 0.72 7.46 EFTA01476212 9.25 9.29 1.09 1.46 1.49 1.63 27.0 313.1 4.20 334.8 4.32 4.49 73.88 15.7 3.14 25.17 6.96