Epstein Secrets

r a bit of R&R The new paper, by Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash and Robert Pollin of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, sought to replicate the Reinhart-Rogoff result for the post-war period. They reckon that mistakes in the analysis led Ms Reinhart and Mr. Rogoff to understate average growth at hig

ggled to specify when a country needs to worry about its debt load. In a 2010 paper Carmen Reinhart, now a professor at Harvard Kennedy School, and Kenneth Rogoff, an economist at Harvard University, seemed to provide an answer. They argued that GDP growth slows to a snail's pace once government-debt levels ex

l Monetary Fund had reworked Alesina-Ardagna with better data and reversed their findings, while many economists raised fundamental questions about Reinhart-Rogoff long before we knew about the famous Excel error. Meanwhile, real-world events — stagnation in Ireland, the original poster child for auster

iding the alleged intellectual justification for austerity — Alberto Alesina and Silvia Ardagna on "expansionary austerity" and Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff on the dangerous debt "threshold" at go percent of G.D.P. The problem is that the studies did not hold up under scrutiny. Because in late 2010, the

old of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We note that while Reinhart and Rogoff’s observations are based on ‘gross debt’ data, in the U.S., debt held by the public is closer to the European KP countries’ definition of

enue sufficient to support entitlement spending + interest payments until ZOG0E — 35 years later than current projection. Note: *Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff observed from 3,700 historical annual data points from 44 countries that the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for de

shold of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We note that while Reinhart and Rogoff’s observations are based on ‘gross debt’ data, in the U.S., debt held by the public is closer to the European countries’ definition of gov

rs own 46% (and rising) of USA Inc.’s debt, per Treasury Department — Are they going to keep funding USA Inc.’s spending? Note: *Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff observed from 3,700 historical annual data points from 44 countries that the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for deb

old of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. . We note that while Reinhart and Rogoff's observations are based on ‘gross debt’ data, in the U.S., debt held by the public is closer to the European countries’ definition of gov

1 1 6 7 1 2 4 3 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 Top 1-25 Global $32,438 $47,081 -3% 81% $2,790 34,632 57,937 -2 100 2,885 Note: “Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff observed from 3,700 historical annual data points from 44 countries that the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for deb

Department of Economics, Harvard University, v. November 9, 2009 Economics 1545: International Financial and Macroeconomic Policy Professor Kenneth Rogoff Time and Place: Fall 2009; M, W, 1—2:30 pm., Sever Hall 203 Office Hours: Littauer Center 216. Mondays 3-4 PM, or by appointment Email: SE (V8. Whe

Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 34 (2003), volume 1, 139-235 XI. INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISES *Reinhart, Carmen and Kenneth Rogoff, “Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison,” American Economic Revie