Epstein Secrets

10 Global Cross Asset Strategy - Year Ahead | 30 November 2016 Bankof America 2 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014441 --- PAGE BREAK --- Chart 15: Eurozone PMI's point to solid growth Chart 16: Japanese growth expected to accelerate in 2017 60.0 3.0 58.0 —_.,. = 2.0 Forecasts 56.0 54.0 1.0 52.0 50.0 0.0

Merkel is returned at the head of a coalition government in Germany. Chart 19: German polls show a consistent lead for Merkel’s CDU party Chart 20: Fillon well ahead of Le Pen in polls showing a potential run-off 40 100 : 90 " Oy On%@ gate 20 tHe “008 as” “ehan 46 06 4 80 30 +4 4 a aa a a4 a4 4 70 2 1 a

d long RUB/ZAR. The former has dropped as the EUR has weakened against the USD. We continue to think that the Swedish economy is more robust than the Eurozone and that the Riksbank will sooner or later have to adjust monetary policy accordingly. We see a lot more room for this pair to move in 2017, particul

European politics. Will Europe follow the route to populism (revolt from the voters) or will we find relief for the markets by the end of 2017 from a Fillon/Merkel duo being in charge of the Euro area’s two largest economies. We think investors will demand a higher risk premium until the French Elections

, PMI’s and consumer confidence pointing to a solid Q4 to follow. That quarter is currently tracking at 3.6% according to the Atlanta Fed. Chart 13: Eurozone PMI’s have picked up of late... Chart 14: US Consumer Confidence now at post-GFC highs 60.0 120 100 59.0 80 50.0 60 40 45.0 ———US Consumer Confidence

n for investors as we enter a busy year for European politics (see table opposite} is whether the populism train will gather pace or terminate at the Eurozone. Italy risks elevated, but risks two way and banks the bigger issue Although Italy goes to the polls this year, it is worthwhile starting with this

k 26 Pace of Federal Reserve Tightening 27 Low Expectations of a US Recession 28 29 30 30 31 33 Rising Influence of Populist Parties in the Eurozone Geopolitical Hot Spots Get Hotter Terrorism Escalates Cyberattacks Continue China Submerges Under Its Debt Burden and Capital Outflows US-China Re

wth of 4.6%, aided by healthy domestic growth, and a particularly well-capitalized® banking sector that has a lower nonperforming loan ratio than the Eurozone bank average. Furthermore, Spain is unlikely to face the same political uncertainty as Germany, France and Italy in 2017. We expect high single-digit

ce should stay in the European Union, and, should she win, questions about the viability of the Eurozone will surface immediately.°* While polls show Fillon well ahead of Le Pen, polls have been wrong on the UK and Italian referenda and the US election. The Eurasia Group, for one, assigns a 30% probabilit