Merkel is returned at the head of a coalition government in Germany. Chart 19: German polls show a consistent lead for Merkel’s CDU party Chart 20: Fillon well ahead of Le Pen in polls showing a potential run-off 40 100 : 90 " Oy On%@ gate 20 tHe “008 as” “ehan 46 06 4 80 30 +4 4 a aa a a4 a4 4 70 2 1 a

European politics. Will Europe follow the route to populism (revolt from the voters) or will we find relief for the markets by the end of 2017 from a Fillon/Merkel duo being in charge of the Euro area’s two largest economies. We think investors will demand a higher risk premium until the French Elections

ce should stay in the European Union, and, should she win, questions about the viability of the Eurozone will surface immediately.°* While polls show Fillon well ahead of Le Pen, polls have been wrong on the UK and Italian referenda and the US election. The Eurasia Group, for one, assigns a 30% probabilit

Party. In France, only 1 out of 20 people approves of Hollande’s performance. (3) The Presidential race in France is now between the Centre Right (Mr Fillon from the Republican Party) and the Far Right (Ms Le Pen from National Front). The pendulum in Europe, in my view, will swing to the right, and possib