, PMI’s and consumer confidence pointing to a solid Q4 to follow. That quarter is currently tracking at 3.6% according to the Atlanta Fed. Chart 13: Eurozone PMI’s have picked up of late... Chart 14: US Consumer Confidence now at post-GFC highs 60.0 120 100 59.0 80 50.0 60 40 45.0 ———US Consumer Confidence

n for investors as we enter a busy year for European politics (see table opposite} is whether the populism train will gather pace or terminate at the Eurozone. Italy risks elevated, but risks two way and banks the bigger issue Although Italy goes to the polls this year, it is worthwhile starting with this

k 26 Pace of Federal Reserve Tightening 27 Low Expectations of a US Recession 28 29 30 30 31 33 Rising Influence of Populist Parties in the Eurozone Geopolitical Hot Spots Get Hotter Terrorism Escalates Cyberattacks Continue China Submerges Under Its Debt Burden and Capital Outflows US-China Re

wth of 4.6%, aided by healthy domestic growth, and a particularly well-capitalized® banking sector that has a lower nonperforming loan ratio than the Eurozone bank average. Furthermore, Spain is unlikely to face the same political uncertainty as Germany, France and Italy in 2017. We expect high single-digit

10 Global Cross Asset Strategy - Year Ahead | 30 November 2016 Bankof America 2 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014441 --- PAGE BREAK --- Chart 15: Eurozone PMI's point to solid growth Chart 16: Japanese growth expected to accelerate in 2017 60.0 3.0 58.0 —_.,. = 2.0 Forecasts 56.0 54.0 1.0 52.0 50.0 0.0

d long RUB/ZAR. The former has dropped as the EUR has weakened against the USD. We continue to think that the Swedish economy is more robust than the Eurozone and that the Riksbank will sooner or later have to adjust monetary policy accordingly. We see a lot more room for this pair to move in 2017, particul

important contributor to US GDP growth. Growth has also begun to pick up in key areas of the emerging markets, including China and Brazil. While the Eurozone economy remains weak, we expect Q3 2012 to mark the bottom, and that growth will begin to get "less bad" from Q4 2012. Equities Equity markets have

continue to tap the primary market if they ask for a support program? ¢ How much more support will Greece receive and will it be able to stay in the Eurozone next year? CIO View (Probability: 70%*) Austerity and weak growth ¢ We think the Eurozone economy troughed in 3Q. We expect flattish growth in 4Q 20

ions of the indignados, as they are called in Spain, and the aganaktismenoi (the outraged), as they say in Greece, are growing. And it's not just the Eurozone. Every single major project of the European Union is faltering. France and Italy are suggesting that the achievement of the Schengen area, in which 2

r more than a year now, Merkel has attempted to find the narrow — perhaps nonexistent — line where the minimum that can be done to save the embattled Eurozone periphery meets the maximum she thinks German public opinion will bear. She has then tried to win her Eurozone partners to that course. So far, it ha

incipal. Bonds exchanged at par will carry low coupons (4.25% effective), while bonds with higher coupons will be exchanged at a 20% discount Source: Eurozone draft proposal July 21, 2011, IIF press release July 21, 2011 In addition to execution risk in Greece, we are left with 3 other concerns. First, whi

y explained by Puerto Rico. = Chinese trade growth moderated; deals announced during President Trump’s visit are unlikely to reduce trade deficit. = Eurozone data came in mixed relative to consensus expectations, but still points to above-trend growth in the region. 27 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025690 Source: Inv

rmore, liability sovereigns explained that if the eurozone were to disband, Germany's role as the financial

erman unified state without some friends." So the eurozone was flawed from the outset, a structure awaiting

erman unified state without some friends." So the eurozone was flawed from the outset, a structure awaiting

erman unified state without some friends." So the eurozone was flawed from the outset, a structure awaiting

day.. | am 23 Jun 2016, | Nebrask 13 | positive rs confident.. #Brexit #Voteleave #Bluehand 03:13 -CEST | a, USA netzlesen [AMTV] BREXIT to Collapse Eurozone (WARNING!!) 23 Jun 2016, 0 | negative a€“ #NWO hitps://t.co/fDsOimD2cW 03:13 - CEST AK47_LFC RT @MoAnsar: Incredibly, I've heard of some poor 23 Jun

Unfortunately, most concerns we expressed last year have been borne out, and are getting much worse (I spent the weekend reading legal documents on a Eurozone break-up, just in case). Like Don Quixote, Europe went on its journey for all the wrong reasons, adopting a half-pregnant monetary union to support a

tem from abroad. Specifically, we see higher uncertainty over global trade, risk sentiment, and FX as a result of political transitions in the US and Eurozone. We consider multiple policy scenarios under a Trump presidency. Trump’s campaign promises have mixed implications for Japan. On a positive note dere

ad | 16 November 2016 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014735 --- PAGE BREAK --- target. It is possible that Trump’s election could weaken fiscal discipline in the Eurozone over the medium term, but we are more concerned by the non-trivial risk that the ECB may disappoint in the December meeting by either not extending q

36 UBS Economy The successful formation of a Greek government after the June 17 elections has reduced the risk of an imminent Greek exit from the Eurozone. However, the Euro debt crisis persists, and further reform and consolidation efforts in Spain and Italy are needed. In the US, economic data weakene

ncipal. Bonds exchanged at par will carry low coupons (4.25% effective), while bonds with higher coupons will be exchanged at a 20% discount Source: Eurozone draft proposal July 21, 2011, IF press release July 21, 2011 In addition to execution risk in Greece, we are left with 3 other concerns. The current