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Investment Strategy
Jan-15 memes Industrial production - inventory (3m mva yoy%) —— SCI Japan cyclical/defensive Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Haver Cyclical = Industrials, consumer discretionary, IT, materials Defensive = Healthcare, telecom, consumer staples, utilities Calculated cyclical and
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014405 →sives June '12 Fundamentals June '14 Production June '13 Contraction Recovery Cyclicals Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Haver 23 09 07 05 e SF SF SF 9 eee TSE Bank/ TSE REIT Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Exhibit 4: Reactions to US Treasury curve
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014406 →rities, Moscow, regulated by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; Merrill Lynch DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch}, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by Comisi6n Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (B
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014408 →uwait SaudiArabia Dubai RRS RRRKRKRKCKKRRKRKKAA Source: Haver, IMF, Saudi Ministry of Finance, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. 2015 data, Source: Haver, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Implied rate of return on SAMA reserve assets Investment income and transfer of profits of public entities for K
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_016117 →Cc fo?) f=] —_ N oO t+ wo . . 7 : : oS SoS o oo So So oS So Oo x x x x —- x Qatar Abu Dhabi Kuwait SaudiArabia Dubai RRS RRRKRKRKCKKRRKRKKAA Source: Haver, IMF, Saudi Ministry of Finance, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. 2015 data, Source: Haver, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Implied rate of re
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_016117 →Menkul Degerler AS., regulated by the Capital Markets Board of Turkey; Merrill Lynch (DIFC): Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch), regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.A.S.V., regulated by Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_016194 →earnings data for production and nonsupervisory employees, ~80% of the private sector, is available back to 1964. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Haver. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Haver. Of course, the recent backup in interest rates is providing equity investors with another source of angs
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026897 →es. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026905 --- PAGE BREAK --- Sources: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver. Endnotes: (1) Kate Davidson and Sarah Chaney, “Fed Chair Powell Sees ‘Remarkably Positive Set of Economic Circumstances,” The Wall Street Journal,
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026906 →lica mientras no sean inscritos en el Registro de Valores correspondiente. Dubai: Goldman Sachs International (“GSI”) is authorised and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA’) in the DIFC and the Financial Services Authority (“FSA”) authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Co
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026907 →Investment Strategy
1000 60 900 40 800 =— Percentage of Countries with J. ——MSCI EM, RS 20 700 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Haver, Bloomberg Chart 29: EM cyclicals outperform as China’s NOMINAL GDP recovers. More to go. eee SCI EM cyclicals/EM defensives price index, LS 180 =
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014447 →rities, Moscow, regulated by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; Merrill Lynch DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch), regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by Comision Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (B
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014457 →S2SSZFSSSRSPESPSLZESS 5 8 gpg = 8 & & & Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Haver, EPFR Bankof America “2 Global Rates, FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016 27 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014757 --- PAGE BREAK --- Best V
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014758 →nch Securities, Moscow, regulated by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; Merri DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch}, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by ill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A. regulated by Comissdo de Va
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014785 →1% | 0% t t t t t t t t t t t t t t 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: Investment Strategy Group, Haver. Of course, the recent backup in interest rates is providing equity investors with another source of angst. Yet our work suggests there are several
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026912 →lica mientras no sean inscritos en el Registro de Valores correspondiente. Dubai: Goldman Sachs International (“GSI”) is authorised and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (““DFSA’”) in the DIFC and the Financial Services Authority (“FSA”) authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026922 →Entities connected to both the Dubai Financial Services Authority and Haver

Deutsche Bank
ORGANIZATION
Malaysia
LOCATION
United Kingdom
LOCATION
New Zealand
LOCATION
Frankfurt
LOCATION
Michael Bloomberg
PERSONThe Monetary Authority of Singapore
ORGANIZATION
Donald Trump
PERSON
Seoul
LOCATIONthe Prudential Regulation Authority
ORGANIZATIONBaFin
ORGANIZATIONthe Capital Market Authority
ORGANIZATION
the Financial Services Agency
ORGANIZATIONMerrill Lynch Canada Inc
ORGANIZATION
Bank of America
ORGANIZATIONBank of America Merrill Lynch International Limited
ORGANIZATIONMerrill Lynch International Bank Limited
ORGANIZATION
Merrill Lynch
ORGANIZATIONThe Financial Service Board
ORGANIZATIONMerchant Bank
ORGANIZATION