Epstein Secrets

Sachs expect unemployment to reach 10.5% by 2010. To put this number in perspective, unemployment peaked at 10.8% in the 1980-82 recession. In the Eurozone, preliminary PMI for Germanys manufacturing and services sectors rose, and the Ifo Index which is a survey-based business index rose for the fourth

(The Wall Street Journal, July 24, 2009). Sources: Investment Strategy Group, Dow Jones, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Bloomberg, Datastream, Platts. The Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research referred to in this email may be available by requesting a copy from your Private Wealth Prof

10 Global Cross Asset Strategy - Year Ahead | 30 November 2016 Bankof America 2 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014441 --- PAGE BREAK --- Chart 15: Eurozone PMI's point to solid growth Chart 16: Japanese growth expected to accelerate in 2017 60.0 3.0 58.0 —_.,. = 2.0 Forecasts 56.0 54.0 1.0 52.0 50.0 0.0

d long RUB/ZAR. The former has dropped as the EUR has weakened against the USD. We continue to think that the Swedish economy is more robust than the Eurozone and that the Riksbank will sooner or later have to adjust monetary policy accordingly. We see a lot more room for this pair to move in 2017, particul

tedtt yield 12/80 12/84 12/88 12/92 12/96 12/00 12/04 12/08 12/12 200 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, MSCI, Datastream Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Datastream European Yield Screen The rising rates backdrop has left yield not quite as scar

, PMI’s and consumer confidence pointing to a solid Q4 to follow. That quarter is currently tracking at 3.6% according to the Atlanta Fed. Chart 13: Eurozone PMI’s have picked up of late... Chart 14: US Consumer Confidence now at post-GFC highs 60.0 120 100 59.0 80 50.0 60 40 45.0 ———US Consumer Confidence

0 066 = G/99—s—«<OG/O2—sC«OG/OS.s«OG/OS=—OG/11 (06/14 06/96 8606/99) (OG/02—sCO6/NSsC«G/OSS(G/11 S(O /14 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Datastream, MSCI, IBES Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Datastream, MSC The other metric that illustrates the valuation overhang in Europe is the ri

n for investors as we enter a busy year for European politics (see table opposite} is whether the populism train will gather pace or terminate at the Eurozone. Italy risks elevated, but risks two way and banks the bigger issue Although Italy goes to the polls this year, it is worthwhile starting with this

k 26 Pace of Federal Reserve Tightening 27 Low Expectations of a US Recession 28 29 30 30 31 33 Rising Influence of Populist Parties in the Eurozone Geopolitical Hot Spots Get Hotter Terrorism Escalates Cyberattacks Continue China Submerges Under Its Debt Burden and Capital Outflows US-China Re

isis highs. % 700 639 600 500 + 400 300 + 1951 1959 1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 Data through 03 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Datastream. The anemic (but steady) pace of this recovery has fueled a debate about its causes. The theories fall into six categories: e A “hangover” from the

wth of 4.6%, aided by healthy domestic growth, and a particularly well-capitalized® banking sector that has a lower nonperforming loan ratio than the Eurozone bank average. Furthermore, Spain is unlikely to face the same political uncertainty as Germany, France and Italy in 2017. We expect high single-digit