Epstein Secrets

ast time the term Maestro got thrown around, it was a case of premature exaltation. The latest from Europe: my head is hot and my feet are freezing Angela Merkel described Europe as being ‘“‘a good way up the mountain path” regarding the debt crisis. Courtesy of the ECB, there has been a dramatic improvement i

: my head is hot and my feet are freezing Angela Merkel described Europe as being ‘“‘a good way up the mo

much harder to find. In contrast to improving labor markets in the US, Europe still looks pretty bad outside Germany (see chart above; the declining Euro Area line includes the better data from Germany). Other variables related to production and consumption show the same regional divergences. The challenge

n politics. Will Europe follow the route to populism (revolt from the voters) or will we find relief for the markets by the end of 2017 from a Fillon/Merkel duo being in charge of the Euro area’s two largest economies. We think investors will demand a higher risk premium until the French Elections in May

from the voters) or will we find relief for the markets if by the end of 2017 froma Fillon/Merkel duo being in charge of the two largest economies in the Euro Area. Recovery - the world looks a better place going into 2017 Reflation has been the big theme of the second half of the year. As we had noted in previ

obal Research Reversal: There is good taper and bad taper The outcome of that would likely affect ECB behaviour too. Our central expectation is for Euro Area growth of around 1 %% and inflation nudging only modestly higher. A much more robust global economy and a stronger USD (presumably weaker EUR} would

ur China ACT indicator continues to indicate steady growth there too. Our economists forecast 3.5% global GDP growth with EM growth around 4.7%. Our Euro Area growth numbers have been nudged back up towards 1 %% with Brexit not proving to be as much of a drag as feared. We still expect the UK economy to see

een improving Growth indicators have been improving around the world of late. Data since the US election would seem to support that with the PMIs in the Euro Area improving again and their equivalent in the US sustaining the gains seen last month. Our EM indicators remain robust and our China ACT indicator con

ancial markets. Our central case is that centre right President is elected in France (with Francois Fillon now the official Republican candidate) and Merkel is returned at the head of a coalition government in Germany. Chart 19: German polls show a consistent lead for Merkel’s CDU party Chart 20: Fillon