Epstein Secrets

1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1954 1967 1981 1995 2008 Source: DepartmentofLabor, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payroll

Eye on the Market | March 15, 2012 J.P Morgan Topics: Is US data as good as it looks? Is Chinese data as bad as it looks? Is European data as bizarre as it looks? What a diff’rence a day makes.

oduction Source: Nationa Bureau of Statistics, PROC, China Automotive Information, China Economic Information Network, CLSA-Markit, Haver Analytics. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. * PMI data areindexlevel. Housingprice toincome, cement production and steel productionare as of

ient and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A, and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), Member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or

tained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the views ex

ment income Shenzhen Electricity Cement production production production Source: Nationa Bureau of Statistics, PROC, China Automotive Information, China Economic Information Network, CLSA-Markit, Haver Analytics. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. * PMI data areindexlevel. Housingprice toincome, ceme

Statistics, PBOC,ChinaAutomptive Infonnatbn, China Economic Information Network, CLSA•Marbt. HaverAnalytics. J.P. Morgan Securities 11O, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. • PMIdata are index levet Housingprice to income. cementpiodudion and steel productional.° as of Dec.2011. All theother dataareas of Feb.2012. Mic

ere is China heading? There is a roiling epistemological debate as to whether China's current decline is structural or cyclical. As an aside, two of JP Morgan's investment banking analysts (one an economist, the other an equity market strategist) have taken opposite sides of the debate, which is in and of it

tained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further. the views expressed

ient and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank. N.A. and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC(JPMS). Member NYSE. FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchase

) is not intended or written to be wed. and cannot be wed. in connection with the promotion. marketing or recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with JPAforgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Note that J.P. Morgan is nor a licensed insurance

forcrVA.A.N1 Electricity production Cement production Steel production Source: National Bureau& Statistics, PBOC,ChinaAutomptive Infonnatbn, China Economic Information Network, CLSA•Marbt. HaverAnalytics. J.P. Morgan Securities 11O, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. • PMIdata are index levet Housingprice to income. ceme

EU leaders meeting to finalize a deal March 1 - 30 Central Bank meetings in Brazil, Mexico, Norway, Indonesia, India, Taiwan, Korea, etc Source:. Morgan Prrvate Bank Instead of the traditional EoTM commentary, this week I wanted to share some charts on oil, Europe, equity markets and monetary policy that speak

and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed or or specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by Morgan Chase Bank. • and its affiliates. Securities are offered through.. Morgan Securities LLC (MIS). Member NYSE. FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or s

ment risks. including possible loss of the principal invested. Not all investment ideas referenced are suitable for all investors. Speak with your.. Morgan Representative concerning your personal situation. This material is nor intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Note that. Morgan is not a licensed insurance provider. 0 2011 !Morgan Chase & Co 5 EFTA00610628

Past performance not i ndicative of future results. 17% Fixed asset investment M2 money supply 12% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 So urce:121300, China Economic Information Network 2010 equity markets during Fed tightening periods =500 Index, January. 100 120 115 110 105 100 95 2011 1988 2005 1994 The largest oil d

mained undeterred in its rise from 2% to 5.4%. A stronger currency would help curb some of the inflation imported from other countries: according to J.P. Morgan's Greater China Economics team, every 1% of appreciation lowers headline inflation by about 10.12 bp per year. As inflation continues to grind higher

tion has been prepared for information purposes only. Nothing in this material is intended to be a solicitation for any product Cf service offered by J.P. Morgan's Private Bank or any of its affiliates. Information contaked herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee it

the RMB. Chinese Inflation vs. FX Appreciation 12% 10% II% 6% 4% 2% 0% .2% '00 72 14 —Mims OM Illi la —IbIrlilligs 0011 IS Source: China Economic Information Network. Bloomberg. Data as of 3/31/11. MPORTANT INFORMATION This presentation and the material contained herein is not a product of the J.P. Morgan Resear