f total expenses, and is dwarfed by labor costs. Michael Cembalest J.P. Morgan Asset Management ' Proposed changes affec

rings, measuring 2.5 inches square. The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not b

cap growth stocks Post-dividend free cash flow margin ‘71 ‘74 ‘77 '80 '83 ‘86 '89 '92 '95 '98 ‘01 '04 ‘07 '10 Source: Empirical Research Partners. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer CBO Congressional Budget Office OMB Office of Management and Budget EFSF European Financial Stability Facility FICA Federa

y among multinationals with strong balance sheets, high dividends and which trade at very low multiples, something we reviewed earlier in the week.” Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Ce

y among multinationals with strong balance sheets, high dividends and which trade at very low multiples, something we reviewed earlier in the week.” Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Ce

n debt None Bank lending te HH/NFC, last 12 months None AANFC = households and non-financial corporations Sources: (MF, OECD, EU, World Bank, CEPS Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer [a] Example: here’s a link to a 2007 article by Austan Goolsbee, former Chairman of the Council of Economic advisors and a

al aid and ECB financing to prevent another one. _| Bank lending to HH/NFC, last 12 months None . HH/NFC = households and non-financial corporations Michael Cembalest Sources: IMF, OECD, EU, World Bank, CEPS Chief Investment Officer Sources “States of Bankruptcy, Part I: The Coming State Pensions Crisis”, Jot Eco

What to do next? McGovern's article suggests that an overly interventionist public sector may be the wrong answer, given the unintended consequences. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030007 --- PAGE BREAK --- Notes [a] I like the idea of extending the holding period for short term capital

240% 220% US 200% 180% 160% 140% 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Source: Federal Reserve, Office for National Statistics. UK Data as of 2009. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cem

across the region; and expect a Greek sovereign debt restructuring within the next 18 months (see chart from "Five Stages of Greece", June 30, 2011). Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer * JP Morgan's Prime Money Market Fund is indicative of industry concerns about a liquidity squeeze. The fund holds no Greece

cy hurdle rate for renewable projects, and fiscal problems in the West may reduce the subsidies that underpin many renewable projects and valuations. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer Notes Vaclav Smil is a Distinguished Professor in the Faculty of Environment at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg and a

J.P. Morgan Private Bank. I've been part of the investment and strategy team at the Private Bank since 2004, when I returned to the firm to work with Michael Cembalest as he assembled a global strategy team to work on behalf of private clients. I was responsible for global multi-asset investment strategy and asset a

ted in discussions about reducing reliance on foreign oil: we do a lot more with it than just drive cars. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031149 --- PAGE BREAK --- Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer [Note a] Austin Long at Columbia University walked me through the geodynamics of the MOP and how many would be needed to pen

ly among multinationals with strong balance sheets, high dividends and which trade at very low multiples, something we reviewed earlier in the week." Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cem

s been below consensus, which would be consistent with the recent batch of reports indicating a slowdown in manufacturing and service sector surveys. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer Notes [a] Bundesbank President Weidmann, in response to last week's package: "By transferring significant risks to the suppo

What to do next? McGovern's article suggests that an overly interventionist public sector may be the wrong answer, given the unintended consequences. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031166 --- PAGE BREAK --- Notes [a] I like the idea of extending the holding period for short term capital

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going to be a smooth one. The global private sector still inhabits a world more affected by government policy than any other in the last 300 years. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer I The new 5-year plan calls for a 7% growth target. Barry Eichengreen at Berkeley notes that the transition to slower grow

* PMI data areindexlevel. Housingprice toincome, cement production and steel productionare as of Dec. 2011. All the other data are as of Feb. 2012. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer “What a diffrence a day makes’, Dinah Washington, 1959, Mercury Records “Banks Deleveraging and Real Estate”, Morgan Stanle