1981 1995 2008 Source: DepartmentofLabor, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payrolls. After adjusting for better weather,

of demand being pulled forward, so we will have to see how consumer spending, housing and payrolls behave in the months ahead. As our Chief Economist Michael Vaknin reminds me, other distortions come from the “catch-up” effect from Japan’s tsunami. As shown below, some strength in auto sales came from pent-up dem

3.148 3.662 130 EMU 7.145 2.386 2.704 145 Latin America 2.747 754 1.010 28 Source: Haver. Data as of CA 2010. 2008 Ow chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payrolls. After adjusting for better weather,

n response t= a badly managed fiscal cliff. We still think this possibility is =ore likely to materialize around the turn of the year.=/p> =/span> Michael Vaknin =p class="MsoNormal">Chief Economist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank<frp> (1] To quote from=the minutes: "Many [of the 12 voting] me=bers judged that add