Epstein Secrets

1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1954 1967 1981 1995 2008 Source: DepartmentofLabor, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payroll

Eye on the Market | March 15, 2012 J.P Morgan Topics: Is US data as good as it looks? Is Chinese data as bad as it looks? Is European data as bizarre as it looks? What a diff’rence a day makes.

1981 1995 2008 Source: DepartmentofLabor, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payrolls. After adjusting for better weather,

oduction Source: Nationa Bureau of Statistics, PROC, China Automotive Information, China Economic Information Network, CLSA-Markit, Haver Analytics. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. * PMI data areindexlevel. Housingprice toincome, cement production and steel productionare as of

ient and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A, and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), Member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or

tained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the views ex

Statistics, PBOC,ChinaAutomptive Infonnatbn, China Economic Information Network, CLSA•Marbt. HaverAnalytics. J.P. Morgan Securities 11O, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. • PMIdata are index levet Housingprice to income. cementpiodudion and steel productional.° as of Dec.2011. All theother dataareas of Feb.2012. Mic

ere is China heading? There is a roiling epistemological debate as to whether China's current decline is structural or cyclical. As an aside, two of JP Morgan's investment banking analysts (one an economist, the other an equity market strategist) have taken opposite sides of the debate, which is in and of it

tained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further. the views expressed

ient and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank. N.A. and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC(JPMS). Member NYSE. FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchase

) is not intended or written to be wed. and cannot be wed. in connection with the promotion. marketing or recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with JPAforgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Note that J.P. Morgan is nor a licensed insurance

3.148 3.662 130 EMU 7.145 2.386 2.704 145 Latin America 2.747 754 1.010 28 Source: Haver. Data as of CA 2010. 2008 Ow chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payrolls. After adjusting for better weather,

think this possibility is =ore likely to materialize around the turn of the year.=/p> =/span> Michael Vaknin =p class="MsoNormal">Chief Economist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank<frp> (1] To quote from=the minutes: "Many [of the 12 voting] me=bers judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warrant=d fairly

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has been prepared by personnel in the (Sales and Trading Departments)of=one or more affiliates of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and is not the=product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department. It is =OA not a research report and is not intended as such. This materia= is for the general information of our clients and is

the marketing name for JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiari=s and affiliates worldwide. This material may not be reproduced or circu=ated without J.P. Morgan's authority. O 2012 JPMorgan Chase =amp; Co. All rights reserved. =OA =OA This email is confidential and subject to imp=rtant disclaimers and condit

n response t= a badly managed fiscal cliff. We still think this possibility is =ore likely to materialize around the turn of the year.=/p> =/span> Michael Vaknin =p class="MsoNormal">Chief Economist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank<frp> (1] To quote from=the minutes: "Many [of the 12 voting] me=bers judged that add

of demand being pulled forward, so we will have to see how consumer spending, housing and payrolls behave in the months ahead. As our Chief Economist Michael Vaknin reminds me, other distortions come from the “catch-up” effect from Japan’s tsunami. As shown below, some strength in auto sales came from pent-up dem

million units 1.0 id 0.5 0.0 nn oS Ss oo BJapan -1.0 BUS+Other 4 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 4 2009 2010 2011 2012 source: BEA Wards DB, J.P. Morgan Privale Bank. Box indicates impact Source: DB, JP. Morgan Private Bank. Shadings indicate Cash for of Japanese earthquake, Clunkers and Japanese earthquake, respe