Epstein Secrets

across the region; and expect a Greek sovereign debt restructuring within the next 18 months (see chart from "Five Stages of Greece", June 30, 2011). Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer * JP Morgan's Prime Money Market Fund is indicative of industry concerns about a liquidity squeeze. The fund holds no Greece

k since there are no binding committments at all 110% 100% 90% Little progress on debt reduction despite 20 years of primary budget surpluses 80% 70% Maastricht limit 60% 50% 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: International Monetary Fund. So to be clear, the Twilight of the Gods has not

stark contrast with the West, Asia's fiscal accounts are in excellent shape should they be needed to respond to another round of global weakness. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer Sources "A Peace Dividend for North Korea? The Political Economy of Military Spending, Conflict Resolution, and Reform",

anking system? [3] This crisis is not just about sovereign debt/deficits. Ireland and Spain were model EMU citizens, with deficits inside of the 3% Maastricht level for years. The problem: total sovereign, corporate, financial and household debt, and each country's ability to service it. Despite reductions

n stark contrast with the West, Asia's fiscal accounts are in excellent shape should they be needed to respond to another round of global weakness. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer Sources "A Peace Dividend for North Korea? The Political Economy of Military Spending, Conflict Resolution, and Reform",

banking system? 3. This crisis is not just about sovereign debt/deficits. Ireland and Spain were model EMU citizens, with deficits inside of the 3% Maastricht level for years. The problem: total sovereign, corporate, financial and household debt, and each country's ability to service it. Despite reductions

ize their banks * Language (with no specifics) regarding the use of EU structural funds to boost growth in Greece What the EU gets: more austerity, Maastricht with teeth (?) and private sector involvement in Greek debt rollover * Legally binding national fiscal framework to be developed by end of 2012; fisc

rings, measuring 2.5 inches square. The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not b

ize their banks * Language (with no specifics) regarding the use of EU structural funds to boost growth in Greece What the EU gets: more austerity, Maastricht with teeth (?) and private sector involvement in Greek debt rollover * Legally binding national fiscal framework to be developed by end of 2012; fis

cap growth stocks Post-dividend free cash flow margin ‘71 ‘74 ‘77 '80 '83 ‘86 '89 '92 '95 '98 ‘01 '04 ‘07 '10 Source: Empirical Research Partners. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer CBO Congressional Budget Office OMB Office of Management and Budget EFSF European Financial Stability Facility FICA Federa