Epstein Secrets

3.148 3.662 130 EMU 7.145 2.386 2.704 145 Latin America 2.747 754 1.010 28 Source: Haver. Data as of CA 2010. 2008 Ow chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payrolls. After adjusting for better weather,

ank. • PMIdata are index levet Housingprice to income. cementpiodudion and steel productional.° as of Dec.2011. All theother dataareas of Feb.2012. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer "What a dirrenee a day makes", Dinah Washington, 1959, Mercury Records "Banks Deleveraging and Real Estate", Morgan Stanl

1981 1995 2008 Source: DepartmentofLabor, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payrolls. After adjusting for better weather,

* PMI data areindexlevel. Housingprice toincome, cement production and steel productionare as of Dec. 2011. All the other data are as of Feb. 2012. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer “What a diffrence a day makes’, Dinah Washington, 1959, Mercury Records “Banks Deleveraging and Real Estate”, Morgan Stanle

of demand being pulled forward, so we will have to see how consumer spending, housing and payrolls behave in the months ahead. As our Chief Economist Michael Vaknin reminds me, other distortions come from the “catch-up” effect from Japan’s tsunami. As shown below, some strength in auto sales came from pent-up dem

n debt None Bank lending te HH/NFC, last 12 months None AANFC = households and non-financial corporations Sources: (MF, OECD, EU, World Bank, CEPS Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer [a] Example: here’s a link to a 2007 article by Austan Goolsbee, former Chairman of the Council of Economic advisors and a