Epstein Secrets

ns that abut it suggest a process of ethnic cleansing to prepare the way. An Alawite coastal ministate that folds in the port cities of Latakia and Tartus, home to the Russian navy's key warmwater port, may not be viable in the long run, but that doesn't mean the regime's core won't try for one. Even

sustainable outcomes, of course, but they could map the outlines of a next phase of warfare after Assad loses control of the Syrian state. But the Alawites aren't the only breakup threat. The consensus among Syria's Kurdish political factions, encouraged by Iraqi Kurd leader Massoud Barzani, who has ho

e Assad clan, and the country's majority of Sunni Muslims. That's why the opposite of the Assad dictatorship could be the breakup of Syria — as the Alawites retreat to their coastal redoubt — and a permanent civil war. There are two things that could divert us from that outcome. One is the Iraq alterna

f the Assad regime would almost inevitably decrease Russian power in the Middle East and the Mediterranean. Syria has hosted Russia's naval base in Tartus for several decades and, since 1971, Syria has been Moscow's closest Arab ally. Syria is the largest Arab purchaser of Russian weapons and is seen

wites who adhere to a form of Islam derived from the Shiism practiced in Iran. Many orthodox Sunni, who form the majority in Syria, do not consider Alawites to be legitimate Muslims. The Islamic Republic's attempts to expand Shiism throughout the Arab world, especially in Syria, have fostered intense ha

tal areas around the city of Lattakia -- where, incidentally, the last remaining Russian military base outside the former Soviet Union, the port of Tartus, happens to be located - - are their strongholds. Indeed, during the French Mandate period, there was a separate Alawite state based on these territ

in the 1990s, could surface here. As in Iraq, there are different geographic regions where Syria's minority groups form the local majority. For the Alawites, the coastal areas around the city of Lattakia -- where, incidentally, the last remaining Russian military base outside the former Soviet Union, th

ossible, for the opposition to topple him. At the UN and elsewhere, Syria enjoys the protection of Russia -- perhaps concerned for its naval base at Tartus. The Russian view is that the Syrian crisis poses no threat to international peace and EFTA_R1_02031589 EFTA02690698 15 security. China, India,

the country's majority Sunni population. Four decades in power is not a long time, and vengeance is a powerful force in this part of the world. The Alawites understand that they face an existential crisis, and if they allow their grip over the Baath-dominated political system - and most importantly the

al areas around the city of Lattakia -- where, incidentally, the last remaining Russian military base outside the former Soviet Union, the port of Tartus, happens to be located -- are their strongholds. Indeed, during the French Mandate period, there was a separate Alawite state based on these territ

in the 1990s, could surface here. As in Iraq, there are different geographic regions where Syria's minority groups form the local majority. For the Alawites, the coastal areas around the city of Lattakia -- where, incidentally, the last remaining Russian military base outside the former Soviet Union, t