Epstein Secrets

reland 96 Commercial RE exposure % of bank assets None 12/30/2011 01/31/2012 02/29/2012 03/28/2012 Encumbered banking system assets, % Greece Source: FactSet. World Bank labor rigidity, Europe None The place that worries me the most: Spain. It ranks at or |!ntra-European real effective exchange rate Italy

al aid and ECB financing to prevent another one. _| Bank lending to HH/NFC, last 12 months None . HH/NFC = households and non-financial corporations Michael Cembalest Sources: IMF, OECD, EU, World Bank, CEPS Chief Investment Officer Sources “States of Bankruptcy, Part I: The Coming State Pensions Crisis”, Jot Eco

ions (1925) 1991) transtfar union 1998 20000 anne 2004 2006 2008 anid Source: Carl-Ludwig Holtirerich, Hallelnstitute for Economic Research, Source: Factset, MSCL Zentrum fur Europaische Politik (Freiburg), J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Bottom line. At atime when European equities are trading close to 2009

rings, measuring 2.5 inches square. The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not b

tions (1929) 1991) transfer union 1998 2000 2002 9004 2006 2008 2010 Source: Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich, Halle Institute for Economic Research, Source: Factset, MSC. Zentrum fur Europaische Politik (Freiburg), J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Bottom line. At a time when European equities are trading close to 2009

cap growth stocks Post-dividend free cash flow margin ‘71 ‘74 ‘77 '80 '83 ‘86 '89 '92 '95 '98 ‘01 '04 ‘07 '10 Source: Empirical Research Partners. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer CBO Congressional Budget Office OMB Office of Management and Budget EFSF European Financial Stability Facility FICA Federa

by quarter Index, 12/30/2011 = 100 101 4QE+1% 100 SQE -1% 99 FYI2-1% a8 2QE -2% of 1QE -3% O68 12/30/2011 OVSV2012 O2/2o/2012 OS282012 Source: FactSet The place that worries me the most: Spain. It ranks at or close to the bottom in a lot of categories (see table), and its growth outlook is poor. Hi

n debt None Bank lending te HH/NFC, last 12 months None AANFC = households and non-financial corporations Sources: (MF, OECD, EU, World Bank, CEPS Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer [a] Example: here’s a link to a 2007 article by Austan Goolsbee, former Chairman of the Council of Economic advisors and a