Epstein Secrets

+ February LTRO, estimated at 2x net December LTRO ---tr • 30% Japan 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: FRB, BEA, ECB, Eurostat, BoE, UKOffice for National Statistics. BoJ, Japan Cabinet Office. Italy's sovereign yield curve Pe cent 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Nove

reserve requirement ratios, from 2% to 1% Spain's sovereign yield curve Pe cent 8% November 29,2011 January 24. 2012 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y Source: Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg. It should not be lost on anyone that first prize in the Central Bank balance sheet expansion race is not necessarily one you w

A_R1_02049745 EFTA02696367 Macro ...But This Is Not 2008 0 0 CO z z z cc O a. cc O. a a. 0 Source: Bloomberg Sources: FRB, BEA, ECB, Eurostat, BoE, Office for National Statistics. BoJ. Cabinet Office. Data as of O4 2011. U.S. Households Deleveraging %GDP 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80%

nt. J.P. Morgan EFTA_R1_02049742 EFTA02696364 Macro Global Growth At A Turning Point TOP OPPORTUNISTIC INVESTMENT THEMES FOR 1O '7012 Source: Bloomberg As of: 1/12111 Global Purchasing Manager Indices 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 - 30 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jan-08 —Japan —US — Europe —Chi

igure 1: The basic balance has turned positive... Figure 2: ...as current account surplus outweigh the net FDI outflows Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Figure 3: EUR/USD strongly correlated (0.88) with bilateral basic balance with the US Figure 4: Bilateral bas

s) 200 100% 150 100 50 0 20% 40% 60% 80% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg The significance of the USD/JPY turn higher should not be understated. It is perhaps the only currency pair that has captured all the major macro

3.0 3.5 4.0 2012 2013 PCE deflator Compensation per employee Employment Real total compensation 2014 2015 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Eurostat 2016 2017 Figure 3: Investment spending recovery has flattened EA non-construction investment spending (lhs) German mfg orders from EA ex heavy

roughly consistent with alternative projections Our downgraded global growth forecast is about in line with outside alternatives from the IMF and Bloomberg through 2017. However, this consistency masks significant regional differences. In particular, while our US growth forecasts are nearly one-half o

long term real rates Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg EFTA01476084 Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Eurostat, BEA, CAO Similarly, the output gap has mirrored the dynamics of credit, as the unemployment rate peaked mid-2013 in the euro area vs. late 2009 i

90, Euro area and US Q4-07 Vertical lines indicate the peaks in easing for long term real rates Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg EFTA01476084 Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Eurostat, BEA, CAO Similarly, the output gap has mirrored the dynamics of credit,

gure 35: The basic balance remains in an uptrend... Figure 36: ...as current account surplus outweighs the FDI outflows Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Page 30 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc EFTA01464361 30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Fina

.0 130.0 140.0 80.0 90.0 1.0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: DB FX Research Source: DB FX Research *Sources: BIS, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank. Notes: For details on model, see Exchange Rate Perspectives, Jan-13. BEER model is relative PPP adjusted for terms-of-trade and pro

ll public sector employees e Reduce state payroll via attrition e 50% bonus tax on top bank executives e Privatize state-owned industries Source: Eurostat, European Commission, IMF, New York Times, Financial Times, BBC, Wall Street Journal. USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 426 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_02105

P 500MKtCap (ST) $5 _-$6_—$8_$10_$12_$12_ $10 $8_$10 Sit _$i1 S13 sis se $10 $11 (@E) www.kpcb.com Note: 2010 data as of 12/31/10. Source: FactSet, Bloomberg. USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 370 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_021026 But USA Inc. Has Steadily Scaled Back Investment in Technology R&D

ase the overall costs to the healthcare system by reducing reliance on equally costly, but less effective and more toxic treatments, by @ CMS, OECD, Eurostat 4 CONTROL NUMBER 257 - CONFIDENTIAL HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024015 reducing clinic visits and hospital admissions and by controlling or curing disease so

es for the foreseeable future. 29 eValuatePharma 3° Burrill Biotech 2012 Report " New Leaf Analysis of public company financial data as provided by Bloomberg » Battelle R&D Magazine Annual Global R&D Funding Forecast 37 CONTROL NUMBER 257 - CONFIDENTIAL HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024048 The Fund Managers expect th

2016 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg Bankof America Merrill Lynch Global Rates, FX & E

e 2% proportionate to index weights 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 — 2% —<0% 4 0.5 1 1.5 2 Source: Eurostat, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Source: Eurostat, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Core inflation at 0.8% is barely above the 2015 low of 0.6%