Epstein Secrets

Iraq's Sunnis or by their patrons in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. Sunni-Shi'ite tensions have simmered across the region, flaring up in Lebanon and Bahrain — but Syria could prove to be a game changer. There are signs that Lebanon's fragile peace may not survive the fall of Assad, with Saudi-backed Sun

sustainable outcomes, of course, but they could map the outlines of a next phase of warfare after Assad loses control of the Syrian state. But the Alawites aren't the only breakup threat. The consensus among Syria's Kurdish political factions, encouraged by Iraqi Kurd leader Massoud Barzani, who has ho

e Assad clan, and the country's majority of Sunni Muslims. That's why the opposite of the Assad dictatorship could be the breakup of Syria — as the Alawites retreat to their coastal redoubt — and a permanent civil war. There are two things that could divert us from that outcome. One is the Iraq alterna

giving women the right to drive, or extending equality rights to the minority Shia. He was a prime mover behind the Saudi military intervention in Bahrain a year ago to smash an incipient Shia reform movement. He hated Iran with a passion intense even by Saudi standards. Nayif was also the most skepti

sition, rather than Assad's forces, that was responsible for the massacre at Houla. On this reading, it wasn't Sunnis who were killed en masse, but Alawites and other minorities. The facts are otherwise. As this list of casualties from the Houla killings shows, the dead were Sunnis, with the majority of

cluding elements of al Qaeda. Subsequently, there's worry that the Sunnis will target the Christian community and take their vengeance against the Alawites, from whom the ruling Assad regime is drawn. The idea then, EFTA00712537 now corroborated by this Syrian disinformation campaign, is that the opp

inst Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, as well as what they perceived as Washington's hostile attitude toward the governments in Egypt and Bahrain. In response to these disagreements, Saudi Arabia has embarked on an independent effort to train Syrian rebels - even enlisting Pakistani trainers

ity to remain, even if Syria has already been carved up into enclaves - Sunni rebels in the north and east, secessionist Kurds in the northeast and Alawites and others in the capital and north-western coastal area. According to these sources, U.S. and Russian officials have privately been discussing wh

convey that wish, seeing how direct clashes are taking place between Iran and its Arab opponents on more than one Arab arena, from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain, the Emirates, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine, among other locations scattered here and there. And unless the Arab states feel that Tehran has

ome sort of a settlement granting tripartite attention to Syria's Sunnis, while Tehran and Moscow will find a way to tend to their interest and the Alawites' affairs. But is it too late for settlements? The New Yorker Two Presidents find a mutual advantage Ryan Lizza September 10, 2012 -- Barack Obama

s Prophet"? Or, alternatively, will we look back and see photos of Saudi anti-riot vehicles cruising across the causeway to support the crushing of Bahrain's "Arab spring" moment as the most consequential image of the past 18 months? The reality is that that the "Arab spring" -- a misnomer of olympian

wites who adhere to a form of Islam derived from the Shiism practiced in Iran. Many orthodox Sunni, who form the majority in Syria, do not consider Alawites to be legitimate Muslims. The Islamic Republic's attempts to expand Shiism throughout the Arab world, especially in Syria, have fostered intense ha

elationship. The king during those years publicly called on Iran not to interfere in Arab affairs. As you can see from Lebanon to Syria, to Iraq to Bahrain, there is a chain of actions taken by Iran to interfere in Arab affairs.... The other aspect is the issue of nuclear nonproliferation. Saudi Arabia

t they continue to say, 'We are afraid these weapons will fall in the wrong hands.' Do you see Syria splitting up? I hope it doesn't split up. The Alawites are not confined to Syria. You have Kurds in Turkey, Iran and Iraq. ... There will be this incentive to reach out to fellow ethnics — and then it w

it would be a strong blow to Iran. Up to now, Iran has mainly benefitted from the recent developments in the region. Mubarak's fall, the events in Bahrain, and the pressure on Saudi Arabia worked to strengthen the axis of opposition and also drew international attention away from Tehran's nuclear prog

to American interests, he firmly believes Lebanon should be within Syria's sphere of influence, and he is a member of a minority Islamic sect, the Alawites, that has had a chokehold on power in Syria for decades. SONY_GM_00078425 JPM-SDNY-00001552 EFTA_00188892 Confidential Treatment Requested by JP

de is built Shiite/Sunni antipathy; and upon both is loaded national competition for regional influence. Their tensions recently came to a head in Bahrain, when the majority Shi'ite population arose to protest felt discrimination by King Isa Al-Khalifa and his Sunni elite advisors. Fearing that the me

ernizing Shah. The Syrian government has no such psychic resources. It is held together in its presidential family and its top military echelons by Alawites-a religious minority that may be characterized as Shi'ite or syncretist, depending on who is articulating its beliefs. And those Alawite leaders h