Epstein Secrets

6 2.0% • -8 1.5./. • -10 1.0% 12 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1954 1967 1981 1995 Source: Depanmentot Labo r, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BE ,OMB. Morg an Private Bank The importance of the US consumer Private Investment Gov. Net Billions of USD Consumption Spend

Unfortunately, the ECB can't create jobs Employment percent change, O0O, saar 3% .3% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: EurostaL Bundesbank. After four years that challenge some of the basic assumptions of efficient markets and laissez-faire capitalism, there is a pent-up demand for nor

-2 25% “4 2.0% 6 < 0 -8 1.5% 10 1.0% -12 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1954 1967 1981 1995 2008 Source: DepartmentofLabor, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau

™ undexd -05 875 90 -0.6 775 -0.7 675 -3% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Citigroup, Bloomberg. Source: Eurostat, Bundesbank. After four years that challenge some of the basic assumptions of efficient markets and laissez-faire capitalism, there is a pent-up demand for norm

ain & Portugal 16% 105. 14% 100 17% i 10% od B% 85 G% Germany ad Ao, a aa 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0% aa ae ; Source: INE, CSO, ISTAT, NSS, Eurostat, Bundesbank, J.P. Morgan Ve7O gf TOG 188 TO 1D ZO aT Securities LLC, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Periphery =Portugal, Ireland, lialy, Source: J.P. Morgan Private B

on. Attractive valuations for US large cap growth stocks Percent g% 7 70, 70 Nominal free cash yield Post-dividend free cash flow margin Source: Empirical Research Partners Q2 earnings season in the US is off to a good start. Nearly 30% of the S&P has reported, and results have generally been positive. Earnings are beat

me to fail. Industrial production Index, 100 = January 2007 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 15 2007 2009 2010 2011 Source: INE, CSO, ISTAT, NSS, Eurostat, Bundesbank, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Periphery = Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain. 2008 * The current EFSF lending capacit

ctive valuations for US large cap growth stocks Post-dividend free cash flow margin ‘71 ‘74 ‘77 '80 '83 ‘86 '89 '92 '95 '98 ‘01 '04 ‘07 '10 Source: Empirical Research Partners. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer CBO Congressional Budget Office OMB Office of Management and Budget EFSF European Financial Stability F