Epstein Secrets

-2 25% “4 2.0% 6 < 0 -8 1.5% 10 1.0% -12 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1954 1967 1981 1995 2008 Source: DepartmentofLabor, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau

1981 1995 2008 Source: DepartmentofLabor, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payrolls. After adjusting for better weather,

2005 2007 2000 2011 Lennar KBHome Toll Hovnanian OR Horton NVR Pultegroup Source: Corporate Reports. Empinaal Research Partners. Source: BuildFax, Empirical Research Partners Has the data really been that good? I heard better US economic data has a lot to do with the weather. Parts of the US experienced the warmest March

of demand being pulled forward, so we will have to see how consumer spending, housing and payrolls behave in the months ahead. As our Chief Economist Michael Vaknin reminds me, other distortions come from the “catch-up” effect from Japan’s tsunami. As shown below, some strength in auto sales came from pent-up dem

6 2.0% • -8 1.5./. • -10 1.0% 12 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1954 1967 1981 1995 Source: Depanmentot Labo r, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BE ,OMB. Morg an Private Bank The importance of the US consumer Private Investment Gov. Net Billions of USD Consumption Spend

3.148 3.662 130 EMU 7.145 2.386 2.704 145 Latin America 2.747 754 1.010 28 Source: Haver. Data as of CA 2010. 2008 Ow chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payrolls. After adjusting for better weather,