Epstein Secrets

mptions going forward federal revenue by 2030 won't be able to cover much more than spending on interest and the big entitlement programs (Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and health insurance subsidies). By 2040, it won't even adequately cover those. Barring serious reforms, the numbers would worsen

iding the alleged intellectual justification for austerity — Alberto Alesina and Silvia Ardagna on "expansionary austerity" and Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff on the dangerous debt "threshold" at go percent of G.D.P. The problem is that the studies did not hold up under scrutiny. Because in late 2010, the

unded liabilities on top of that. Chris Watling of Longview Economics reckons that the net present value of spending commitments under the Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security programmes is 276% of GDP. The Democrats resist cuts in entitlements and the Republicans resist tax increases, so nothing much g

ure on items such as unemployment benefits. The hawks counter that there comes a point when further deficits are self-defeating. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff suggest that the crunch arrives when the debt-to-GDP ratio reaches around 60% in emerging markets and 90% in developed economies. In rich countries

ic corporation, USA Inc.’s financials are discouraging. True, USA Inc. has many fundamental strengths. On an operating basis (excluding Medicare and Medicaid spending and one-time charges), the federal government’s profit & loss statement is solid, with a 4% median net margin over the last 15 years. But ca

enue sufficient to support entitlement spending + interest payments until ZOG0E — 35 years later than current projection. Note: *Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff observed from 3,700 historical annual data points from 44 countries that the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for de

ffice (CBO) Long-Term Budget Outlook (6/10). Note that entitlement spending includes federal government expenditures on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Data in our chart is based on CBO’s ‘alternative fiscal scenario’ forecast, which assumes a continuation of today’s underlying fiscal policy. Note t

rs own 46% (and rising) of USA Inc.’s debt, per Treasury Department — Are they going to keep funding USA Inc.’s spending? Note: *Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff observed from 3,700 historical annual data points from 44 countries that the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for deb

T TT TT TTT TT (1 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Note: Total government spending on healthcare includes Medicare, Medicaid and other programs and total government spending on education includes spending on pre-primary through tertiary education programs. Source: Dept. of

1 1 6 7 1 2 4 3 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 Top 1-25 Global $32,438 $47,081 -3% 81% $2,790 34,632 57,937 -2 100 2,885 Note: “Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff observed from 3,700 historical annual data points from 44 countries that the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for deb