Epstein Secrets

alth Care Consumer Staples Financials Financials IT Cons Discretionary Industrials Industrials Financials Industrials Financials Telecome Utilities IT Cons Discretionary Health Care IT Consumer Staples Utilities Industrials Utilities Consumer Staples Financials EFTA01470806 28 Secto

alling oil prices will see basket underperform Implementation: Buy European Oil Sensitivity Basket via Delta One note or Total Return Swap Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research European Oil Sensitivity Basket Outperforms market when Brent rises (1) For additional detail on basket holdings please se

strials remain a significant concern. Most of the rest of the market, both the S&P and the Russell 2000, seems fully valued except a few big Banks, Utilities, Airlines, and some of our specific stock picks. We do not believe that a recession looms or that S&P profits will fall again in 2016. We also do

Rising means easier, falling means tighter # of standard deviations 20140101 20140618 20141203 20150520 20151104 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Bloomberg Finance LP, Haver Analytics LP Figure 7: Bottom-up fiscal stance estimates underestimating extent of fiscal easing in 2016 1.5 0.5 1 -0.5 0 -1.5 -1

(China —5%) A continued profit recession, Foreign Cons Disc Cons Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Tech Materials Telecom Utilities S&P 500 per share Avg oil price Euro Avg FF rate US UE yr end US GDP Global GDP Source: Deutsche Bank Sales % Profits % 27% 28% 41% 18%

015YTD EUR avg: 1.11 2012 avg: 80.6 2013 avg: 80.4 2014 avg: 82.6 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 DXY (lhs) Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank EUR/USD (rhs) Figure 2: Oil prices (1st month futures) 105 115 125 EFTA01476307 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 WTI Source: Bloom

ncials Health Care Industrials Tech ex. Fin ex. En Disc. S&P Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Tech Materials Telecom Utilities Health Care Industrials Tech Materials Telecom Utilities Ex. En, Fin, HC Disc. Staples Energy Financials ex. Fin ex. En ex. Tech En, F

n Up Up Up Down Down Down Up Up Up Up Up Up Down Down Down Up Down Down Up Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Source: FRB, Bloomberg Finance LP, I/B/E/S, Deutsche Bank A signal's risk aversion is based on its current level expressed as a percentile of all the observations in its long-term h

ng 20% Leading and gaining Energy Telecom Health Care Cons. Staples Lagging and slipping -15% -10% Source: Deutsche Bank, Thomson Reuters Utilities -5% 0% YTD Total Return 5% 10% Leading but slipping 15% Cons. Disc. Page 42 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. MTD Total Return 3 Month Total

sectors are highlighted in green (red) All sectors within 5% of their 5 year high are highlighed in yellow Source: Deutsche Bank, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP 2015 PE (ex. Neg EFTA01476521 EPS) 18.4 17.5 14.4% 3.6% 2.8% 20.4 17.2 17.1 26.1% 22.3 16.5% 5.7% 18.6 16.8 11.6% 22.2 14.8% 4.5%