Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Health Care Equipment & Supplies Buy Health Care Equipment & Supplies Buy Health Care Equipment & Supplies Buy Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals Airlines Airlines Airlines Airlines Information Technology Communications Equipment Information Technology IT Services IT Services Electric Utilities Electric Utilities Electric Utilities Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor EquipmentBuy Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor EquipmentBuy Buy Buy Buy Price Target 19 72 132 101 49 47 60 138 EFTA01476503
49 393 83 53 90 112 308 84 66 187 54 55 54 74 35 341 69 20 95 62 37 112 Source: Deutsche Bank, Compustat, Thomson Reuters *Net Buyback Yield is calculated as (trailing 12-month buyback expenditures less option exercise proceeds and less stock option expense) / Market Cap Note: The list has the following changes from our previous US Equity Insights report based on the screening rules: additions (CTSH), deletions (ACN). Price 125.43 95.10 43.60 44.15 114.97 43.83 359.09 76.38 45.73 Mkt Cap ($m) 17.69 186,626 67.66 249,385 22,277 48,297 22,306 77,924 55.97 284,352 20,105 48,090 59,141 19,206 EFTA01476504
68,321 75.75 109,640 95.41 36,530 302.05 122,494 59.41 51.22 154.63 42.30 48.51 46.87 58.50 286.07 65.24 18.20 77.92 56.32 28.16 100.99 13,435 25,571 22,786 28,049 37,554 30,118 21,515 27.37 137,964 17,589 39,683 21,767 12,423 27,196 25,858 46,450 P/E on 2015 EPS 12.6 11.3 16.7 12.9 12.3 14.0 13.4 12.4 15.4 18.6 16.7 21.3 17.7 18.7 EFTA01476505
19.0 13.1 11.9 20.2 4.7 10.5 13.1 4.9 15.7 19.0 21.4 15.3 15.4 15.0 11.3 17.9 2015 EPS 2016 EPS Growth Growth 297% 13% 1% 1% 10% 0% 10% 2% 2% 9% 17% 0% 0% 9% 12% 8% 13% 6% 21% 22% 57% 41% 78% 137% 17% 19% 17% 12% 14% 9% EFTA01476506
4% 7% 14% -1% 0% 5% 4% 14% 12% 6% 8% 10% 2% 10% -4% 27% 12% 22% -39% 0% 2% -40% 4% 13% 14% 0% 23% -1% -2% 9% Dividend Payout Ratio 34% 30% 38% 26% 22% 31% 33% 26% 27% 40% 39% 44% 29% 26% 0% 0% 0% 8% EFTA01476507
7% 7% 10% 0% 48% 0% 0% 37% 4% 59% 52% 55% 2015 DPS Growth Div Yield 67% 9% 0% 7% 31% 5% 9% 15% 3% 6% 132% 9% 9% 10% Net Buyback Yield Total Yield 1.1% -7.3% -6.1% 2.6% -0.9% 1.7% 2.2% -0.9% 1.4% 2.1% 4.2% 6.4% 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.0% 4.3% 2.7% 0.7% 3.4% 2.3% 6.8% 9.1% 1.5% 1.2% 2.7% 2.4% 1.3% 3.7% 2.7% 2.5% 5.2% 2.1% 0.9% 3.0% 2.0% 0.5% 2.4% 100% 50% 19% 11% EFTA01476508
0% 300% 6% 0% 6% 1.4% 0.8% 2.2% 0.0% -7.9% -7.9% 0.0% -18.0% -18.0% 0.0% -0.8% -0.8% 0.3% -4.7% -4.4% 1.0% 3.8% 4.7% 1.1% 5.4% 6.5% 0.6% 3.2% 3.8% 0.0% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 1.0% 4.1% 0.0% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 2.0% 4.2% 1.5% 2.9% 4.5% 4.0% -1.3% 2.7% 4.4% -0.6% 3.8% 3.1% -3.0% 0.1% EFTA01476509
US Equity Insights 20 November 2015 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 41 Figure 70: What to buy now (mid and small caps)? DB Buy-rated non-S&P 500 stocks in our OW industries with market cap > $800m, PE on 2015 EPS < 25, 2015 EPS growth > 8%, net debt/market cap < 30%, price upside > 5% DB DB Ticker Company Name LOPE Grand Canyon Education Inc LOCK Lifelock Inc VIPS FL AKRX JAZZ BABA IACI GPN NXPI NUAN SNCR VRNT Vipshop Holdings Ltd Foot Locker Inc WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc QGEN Qiagen Nv Akorn Inc Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc Alibaba Group Holding Ltd Iac/interactivecorp HAWK Blackhawk Network Holdings Inc FLT Fleetcor Technologies Inc Global Payments Inc WNS Wns (holdings) Ltd MXL Maxlinear Inc Nxp Semiconductors Nv SPWR Sunpower Corp MSTR Microstrategy Inc Nuance Communications Inc Synchronoss Technologies Inc Verint Systems Inc GICS Sector GICS Industry Consumer Discretionary Diversified Consumer Services Consumer Discretionary Diversified Consumer Services Consumer Discretionary Internet & Catalog Retail Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail EFTA01476510
Consumer Staples Food & Staples Retailing Health Care Health Care Health Care Life Sciences Tools & Services Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals Information Technology Internet Software & Services Information Technology Internet Software & Services Information Technology IT Services Information Technology IT Services Information Technology IT Services Information Technology IT Services Rating Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Price Price Target Upside 45.0 25.0 18.3 80.0 95.0 31.0 40.0 Buy 173.0 98.0 90.0 50.0 Buy 184.0 Buy 139.0 Buy 36.0 20.0 43.0 65.0 66.0 Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Buy Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Buy 100.0 Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Buy Information Technology Software EFTA01476511
Information Technology Software Information Technology Software Information Technology Software Buy 220.0 30.0 Buy Buy Buy Source: Deutsche Bank, Compustat, Thomson Reuters Note: The list has the following changes from our previous US Equity Insights report based on the screening rules: addition (AKRX, NUAN), deletions (NTES, ON). For screening purpose, our over-weight industries for mid and small caps are all industries in Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Tech. DB Analyst 16% Paul Ginocchio, CFA 72% Nandan Amladi 28% 30% 15% Alan Hellawell Paul Trussell George Hill 16% Gunnar Romer 23% 19% 26% 45% 11% Gregg Gilbert Gregg Gilbert Alan Hellawell Ross Sandler Bryan Keane 21% Ashish Sabadra 95% 15% 23% 24% 88% 27% Bryan Keane Bryan Keane Ross Seymore Ross Seymore Vish Shah Karl Keirstead 49% Nandan Amladi 66% Nandan Amladi EFTA01476512
36% Nandan Amladi Price 38.71 14.53 14.31 61.53 82.83 26.73 32.46 145.04 45.21 151.57 71.27 31.41 16.25 80.92 22.93 173.00 20.20 39.25 48.38 Mkt Cap ($m) 1,844 1,381 8,357 8,519 92,090 6,221 3,783 8,973 77.87 195,190 62.26 5,158 2,483 13,983 9,209 1,681 1,035 20,621 3,232 1,987 6,267 1,731 3,039 Net Debt / Mkt Cap -6% -24% -7% -10% EFTA01476513
14% 11% 28% 5% -6% 4% 9% 20% 16% -8% -7% 13% 9% -22% 27% 0% 12% P/E on 2015 EPS 14.0 23.3 4.1 17.2 21.4 24.8 16.8 17.5 6.0 18.1 19.8 24.4 14.1 18.1 18.7 16.6 11.3 19.2 15.8 17.9 14.5 2015 EPS Growth 17% 35% 69% 24% 18% 8% 81% 12% 10% EFTA01476514
35% 29% 21% 22% 26% 100% 15% 54% 440% 14% 23% 18% 2016 EPS Growth 6% 20% 43% 18% 18% 10% 25% 35% 30% 38% 14% 11% 17% 8% 24% Div Yield Net Buyback Yield Total Yield 0.0% -0.6% -0.6% 0.0% -2.9% -2.9% 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% 1.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% -0.7% -0.7% 0.0% -1.2% -1.2% 0.0% -6.5% -6.5% 2.2% 0.0% -1.5% -1.5% 0.0% -0.6% -0.6% 0.1% 0.0% -3% 0.0% EFTA01476515
10% 14% 3% -9% 0.0% -0.3% -0.3% 2% 0.0% -1.1% -1.1% 0.0% 0.0% -3.7% -3.7% 0.0% -2.5% -2.5% 0.9% 0.9% 3.6% 5.2% 0.8% 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 2.3% 4.5% 2.7% 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% -2.5% -2.5% 3.3% 3.3% EFTA01476516
20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Figure 71: S&P 500 sector performance (total returns) 12 Month YTD S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities Note: 3.7% 17.2% 4.4% 3.0% 12.5% 3.7% -19.1% -13.1% 4.2% 5.4% 0.7% 9.5% -6.4% -4.1% -1.9% 1.1% 4.8% 0.2% Since 3 Month 1 Month 1 Week 6.2% 8.5% 8/25/2015 Mkt Trough 3.3% 1.8% 2.6% 0.5% 4.2% -0.8% 2.4% 8.0% 4.2% -0.7% 8.6% 8.2% 12.8% -4.5% 2.0% -6.1% EFTA01476517
6.4% 1.8% 0.4% 2.0% 4.9% 2.1% 3.9% 1.7% 4.1% 2.3% 5.7% 1.4% 5.1% 4.1% 1.2% 2.4% -3.2% -3.8% 1.2% Two biggest outperforming (underperforming) sectors are highlighted in green (red) All sectors within 5% of their 5 year high are highlighted in yellow Source: Deutsche Bank, Thomson Reuters 12.0% 13.4% 9.1% 15.5% 11.2% 4.9% 14.2% 18.3% 13.0% 7.5% 3.8% Current Price vs. 5yr High 2015 PE 97.7% 17.5 98.2% 21.1 12.9% 97.2% 20.7 67.2% 27.4 9.4% 6.9% 96.1% 14.0 16.2% 91.8% 17.0 14.2% 95.9% 16.6 10.1% 98.6% 17.6 20.6% 87.6% 17.7 87.6% 12.5 86.8% 15.8 2.8% 2.3% 2.8% Sector Wt. by Mkt Cap Figure 72: S&P 500 sector 12m vs. 3m performance -6% -4% EFTA01476518
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Tech ex. AAPL Tech Lagging but gaining Industrials Energy Materials Cons. Disc S&P 500 Financials Telecom Cons. Staples Health Care Utilities Lagging and slipping -20% -15% Source: Deutsche Bank, Thomson Reuters -10% -5% 0% 5% 12 Month Total Return Figure 73: S&P 500 sector ytd vs. mtd performance -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% Lagging but gaining Industrials Materials S&P 500 Tech ex. AAPL Tech Financials Leading and gaining 10% EFTA01476519
15% Leading but slipping 20% Leading and gaining Energy Telecom Health Care Cons. Staples Lagging and slipping -15% -10% Source: Deutsche Bank, Thomson Reuters Utilities -5% 0% YTD Total Return 5% 10% Leading but slipping 15% Cons. Disc. Page 42 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. MTD Total Return 3 Month Total Return EFTA01476520
20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Figure 74: Russell 2000 sector ytd vs. mtd performance (price returns) 12 Since 3 Month Russell 2000 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financial Services Health Care Materials & Processing Producer Durables Information Technology Utilities Note: YTD 1 0.8% -3.2% 0.9% 1.9% 1.0% -4.7% -9.9% -5.4% -3.8% -0.8% 8.2% 1.7% 5.7% 1.2% 1.2% -46.2% -33.3% -0.9% -6.1% 0.7% 4.3% 0.9% 3.5% 2.4% 1.0% 14.7% 5.2% -4.9% 6.8% 0.9% -7.6% -10.1% 1.3% 2.4% 3.3% -7.3% -10.0% 1.3% 1.8% 2.0% 11.2% 4.3% 7.5% 4.4% 1.4% 0.2% -4.3% 2.6% -0.5% 1.0% 8/25/2015 Month Month 1 Week Mkt Trough Current Price vs. 5yr High 5.7% 90.0% -1.7% 84.1% 9.3% 98.6% 5.8% 34.0% 9.5% 96.9% -1.1% 83.4% 7.6% 83.7% 5.7% 85.7% 12.0% 92.7% 8.0% 92.4% Two biggest outperforming (underperforming) sectors are highlighted in green (red) All sectors within 5% of their 5 year high are highlighed in yellow Source: Deutsche Bank, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP 2015 PE (ex. Neg EFTA01476521
EPS) 18.4 17.5 14.4% 3.6% 2.8% 20.4 17.2 17.1 26.1% 22.3 16.5% 5.7% 18.6 16.8 11.6% 22.2 14.8% 4.5% 18.5 Sector Weight Figure 75: Russell 2000 sector 12m vs. 3m performance Lagging -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% -50% Tech but gaining Leading and gaining Cons. Staples Utilities Materials & Proc Producer Dur Energy Health Care Lagging and slipping -40% -30% Source: Deutsche Bank, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP -20% -10% 12 Month Price Return Figure 76: Russell 2000 sector ytd vs. mtd performance -5% -4% -3% EFTA01476522
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% -40% Health Care Lagging but gaining Russell 2000 Materials & Proc Producer Dur Utilities Lagging and slipping Energy Cons. Disc. -30% Source: Deutsche Bank, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP -20% -10% YTD Price Return 0% 10% Leading but slipping Tech Leading and gaining Financial Svcs Cons. Staples Cons. Disc. Leading but slipping 0% 10% 20% Financial Svcs Russell 2000 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 43 MTD Price Return 3 Month Price Return EFTA01476523
20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Figure 77: Thematic plays — YTD total returns -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% Source: S&P, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP Figure 78: Thematic plays, underlying sectors and baskets — YTD total returns Cyclicals YTD Total Returns 0.9% Consumer Discretionary Energy Financials Industrials Materials Defensives Utilities Telecommunication Services Consumer Staples Health Care Information Technology Domestic Cyclicals Consumer Discretionary Financials DBUSDMST (US Domestic Strength) * Global Cyclicals Energy Industrials Value DBUSCICG (Challenged Cap Goods) * Information Technology Energy Materials Financials Cyclical Growth Consumer Discretionary Industrials Secular Growth Health Care Information Technology S&P 500 ex. Secular Growth * Returns of stock baskets are price returns ** Equal-weighted total return Source: S&P, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP 12.5% EFTA01476524
-13.1% 1.1% 0.2% -4.5% 3.0% -6.1% 2.0% 3.7% 4.8% 8.2% 5.9% 12.5% 1.1% -3.2% 0.9% -13.1% 0.2% -9.9% -4.5% 8.2% -3.6% -13.1% 1.1% 6.8% 12.5% 0.2% 6.8% 4.8% 8.2% 1.0% Credit vs. Commodity Play Financials Energy Capex Industrials Energy Equipment & Services Information Technology DBUSBRTE (Reasonable PE Tech) * Consumer Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Dividend Growth Financials Information Technology Dividend Yield (Bond Substitutes) Utilities Telecommunication Services REITs Consumer Staples Share Buybacks Consumer Discretionary EFTA01476525
Information Technology Industrials Health Care Repatriation Holiday Beneficiaries Strong Dollar No foreign sales (139 Cos) ** Small Cap vs. Large Cap Russell 2000 S&P 500 DBUSHIFC (High Foreign Cash) * High foreign sales (139 Cos) ** 1.1% -13.1% 4.7% 0.2% -11.6% 8.2% -10.1% 8.6% 12.5% 3.7% 4.9% 1.1% 8.2% 1.4% -6.1% 2.0% 1.5% 3.7% 6.8% 12.5% 8.2% 0.2% 4.8% 3.7% -0.8% 0.2% -2.0% 3.0% Page 44 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. EFTA01476526
20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Figure 79: Historical sector performance Beta > 1 Beta = 1 US Value Credit Plays Financials 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 EFTA01476527
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD Financials 2.4% 48.7% -14.4% 14.6% 2.6% -5.6% 1.4% 2.0% 50.2% -10.8% 6.4% 10.1% 32.3% -5.9% -35.1% 19.3% 35.5% -8.9% 5.9% 18.2% 14.7% 11.4% 20.4% 14.8% 8.8% 41.7% 8.2% -16.1% 18.0% 32.5% -20.8% 49.1% 23.3% 10.6% -3.5% 54.1% 35.2% EFTA01476528
48.2% 11.4% 4.1% 25.7% -9.0% -14.6% 31.0% 10.9% 6.5% 19.2% -18.6% -55.3% 17.2% 12.1% -17.1% 28.8% 35.6% 15.2% 1.1% Global Value Commodity Plays Global Growth Capex Plays Energy Materials Industrials Energy Materials Industrials -4.4% 25.4% -6.4% 31.6% 11.9% -10.5% 22.1% 26.7% 1.5% -7.1% -16.9% 17.9% 22.0% -24.1% -15.3% 17.5% 4.8% 22.2% 8.1% -23.7% -22.3% 27.0% 36.5% -3.4% -27.7% 9.2% 46.8% 62.2% -20.2% -6.8% 30.3% EFTA01476529
25.0% 10.6% 18.8% 39.7% 15.9% 3.7% 31.0% 25.9% 25.3% 0.6% 18.7% 20.8% 22.5% 12.8% 23.6% 6.6% 11.0% 0.7% 14.1% 5.7% 41.1% 19.0% 3.8% 50.4% 23.5% 2.3% 1.9% 33.0% 19.8% -16.9% 22.3% 22.3% 19.3% 46.5% 19.3% 22.4% 2.9% -10.7% 6.9% 2.3% 25.5% 10.3% 13.5% 5.8% 20.0% 15.8% 8.4% -6.2% 25.3% 15.7% -15.7% -10.4% -11.1% 25.6% EFTA01476530
31.5% 31.4% 24.2% 34.4% -34.9% -45.7% 13.8% 20.5% 4.7% 4.6% 25.1% -7.8% -13.1% 3.5% -5.5% 38.2% 13.2% 4.4% 18.6% 22.5% 48.6% 22.2% -9.8% 15.0% 25.6% 6.9% -4.5% Source: Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, Thomson Reuters -10.2% 18.7% Tech Tech -15.9% -33.2% 25.6% 13.2% 38.1% -20.8% 42.0% 16.8% -28.8% Consumer Growth Consumer Plays Con Disc Cons. Disc. 33.1% -10.1% 47.6% 31.3% 2.4% 31.9% 73.8% -0.1% 16.6% EFTA01476531
17.2% -16.3% 23.0% 27.8% 23.7% 30.3% 40.7% 39.1% 19.3% 13.4% 19.0% 24.1% 54.1% 40.3% -7.9% 15.9% -9.2% 7.7% 1.7% -1.3% 47.1% Staples 33.6% 36.3% 13.6% 14.4% 9.6% -29.5% 33.9% 10.3% -3.8% 16.2% 19.9% 11.5% 65.6% 29.0% -9.4% 0.2% 3.2% -4.5% 31.4% 16.4% 10.2% 14.6% 20.5% 20.2% -9.3% -21.9% -17.2% -9.8% -13.2% -14.5% -1.5% 31.3% 63.7% -9.9% -21.1% -2.2% EFTA01476532
27.2% -5.0% 27.5% 12.7% 21.0% 12.4% 18.4% -7.6% 29.5% 9.6% 18.6% -2.4% 39.1% 25.1% 27.0% 10.9% 21.5% -6.7% -0.1% 79.0% 30.0% 5.1% 24.4% 20.2% 4.1% 37.5% 12.4% 3.0% -12.2% 9.1% 2.9% 21.7% 19.9% 39.4% 43.9% 28.5% 78.1% 78.7% 13.3% 12.0% 47.2% 2.6% 1.0% 8.4% 61.7% 10.2% 2.4% 40.7% 9.8% 0.2% 14.8% 28.4% EFTA01476533
20.1% 8.2% 41.5% 19.7% 14.6% -8.3% 20.3% 12.4% 34.4% 41.1% 5.9% -40.9% -20.0% -5.7% -25.9% -26.3% -37.4% -23.8% 32.2% 18.0% 2.3% 16.3% -13.2% 41.3% 27.7% 6.1% 23.9% 43.1% 9.7% 12.5% 2.8% 37.4% 13.2% -6.4% 18.6% 38.2% 10.9% -5.4% 7.2% -0.3% 11.6% 14.4% 41.2% 14.7% 13.5% 44.6% 31.9% 13.8% 28.7% 49.4% 15.3% 41.7% 39.6% 25.9% 32.9% 15.8% Growth EFTA01476534
Health Care Staples Healthcare Utilities Cons. Utilities 7.3% 26.1% -7.0% -17.6% -18.6% 30.9% 30.5% 5.3% 20.9% 16.5% 30.4% 0.1% 25.1% 8.6% 19.8% 29.0% -2.7% 12.2% 15.6% 4.7% -4.6% -0.6% 5.5% 23.6% -11.3% -2.7% 19.8% 32.4% 5.0% -4.0% -9.2% 12.0% 16.0% 24.0% 2.4% 18.5% 9.5% 15.3% 43.5% 38.1% 11.0% 12.4% 44.9% 17.3% 53.7% 5.3% -16.2% -3.9% 9.8% -8.2% EFTA01476535
-7.9% -17.7% -26.9% -36.5% -42.3% -28.8% -18.2% 25.4% 24.9% 42.9% 30.2% 8.1% -3.7% 13.0% 14.0% 11.0% 24.5% 19.2% 28.1% -2.5% 17.8% 45.8% 13.7% 13.7% -11.8% 58.0% 21.0% 43.7% 43.9% 25.2% -15.1% -10.7% 16.8% 37.1% 14.4% 14.2% 14.9% 14.1% 14.0% 10.8% 26.1% 16.0% 3.7% 15.1% 1.7% 6.5% 7.5% 7.2% 19.7% 2.9% 12.7% 17.9% 41.5% 25.3% 4.8% 32.7% 5.7% 24.7% 14.8% -21.4% EFTA01476536
-9.2% 26.3% 24.3% 16.8% 21.0% 19.4% 15.7% 2.2% 7.5% Beta < 1 Low Beta Defensives Domestic (Bond Subst.) Telecom Telecom S&P 500 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.4% 0.9% -8.0% 10yr Tsy TR 0.3% 26.6% -8.8% 22.5% 16.3% 12.3% -5.8% -10.0% -4.3% 10.0% -3.6% 5.9% -3.1% 23.9% 3.9% 4.1% 3.9% 1.6% 3.7% 0.7% 5.0% 23.7% -3.2% 10.8% 2.2% -8.3% -5.5% 3.5% 18.4% 14.3% 11.1% 19.0% 0.5% -14.7% -4.5% -26.5% EFTA01476537
21.6% 32.3% 1.9% 7.6% -5.6% 1.4% 34.0% 10.3% 13.4% 24.3% -66.3% 31.7% 35.7% 16.4% 7.8% 23.3% 61.8% -0.6% -13.9% 23.9% 6.6% 13.2% 16.2% 15.1% -4.8% 42.3% 1.1% 41.2% 52.4% 19.1% 57.2% -38.8% 7.1% 19.9% -5.6% 36.8% 11.9% 8.9% 19.9% 1.3% 13.2% 29.0% -6.1% 19.0% 6.3% 18.3% 11.5% 3.0% 2.0% 37.2% 2.3% 3.3% 3.9% 5.4% EFTA01476538
23.9% 15.2% -7.2% 0.4% 18.6% 6.6% -0.9% 1.8% 32.5% -1.6% -4.9% 4.8% 21.5% 39.1% 22.6% 2.0% 6.3% 14.6% 31.7% 29.6% 18.7% 21.3% 5.3% -2.8% 6.8% 16.6% 31.7% 17.7% -3.1% 7.6% 7.1% 0.0% 30.5% 18.8% 7.6% 10.1% 12.9% 1.3% -7.3% 37.6% 25.4% 23.0% -6.4% -11.9% -30.4% -12.2% -11.9% 33.4% 11.9% 28.6% 14.6% 21.0% -7.9% -9.1% 17.2% 5.4% -4.3% -18.8% -30.0% -34.1% -22.1% 15.4% 11.6% 8.2% 3.6% 28.7% 10.9% 4.9% 15.8% 11.9% 5.5% 0.2% 4.5% 3.0% 2.2% 5.5% 10.4% -39.9% -43.1% -33.5% -15.4% -22.8% -29.0% -30.5% -37.0% 20.5% EFTA01476539
20.9% 26.7% -0.6% 15.3% 26.5% -10.2% 15.1% 16.0% 7.9% 2.1% 16 1% 2.7% 32.4% -8.5% 13.7% 10.6% 3.0% 1.1% Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 45 EFTA01476540
US Equity Insights 20 November 2015 Page 46 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Figure 80: List of DB US Equity Strategy research notes Research Title Date S&P should finish the year in black, but more red ahead for Energy Amazing margins, but mind the GAAP A structural slowing of Industrials: Investing around this late cycle risk Don't pull the plug on Health Care Corporate debt and Bank EPS outlook Portfolio Health Advisory: Premature rotation into Energy & Industrials Window for 2015 liftoff slams shut: Cut S&P 2015 end target to 2050 Debt ceiling showdowns: A new twist to the election cycle? Fed delays: Less S&P upside for 2015 Stocks will leave hike decision to the Fed, but dollar likely gains either way First back to school assignment: Stress test 2016 S&P EPS estimates Post correction: Better without the froth, but still real risks to monitor Further downside for global cyclicals Stretching to hit numbers? GAAP vs. non-GAAP S&P EPS spread widens Secular growth shines as acceleration hopes fade A chance to go away until Labor Day Another "fish hook" earnings season The Hulk vs. the Amazing Euro Hero: Has the Euro found bottom at $1.10? Got your 2H sector strategy ready? Consider Utilities over regional Banks Yellen keeps equities on bullish path Bullish if dollar and yields settle here Dear Fed, avoid 1994 by hiking in Sep 10 themes to watch this summer S&P hits record high on 18 trailing PE, PE will be sensitive to Treasury yields What if Fed relents on hikes for 2015? A little EPS upside, but more PE risk Ascent of S&P margins continues: 1096+ net margin survives Energy dip Jobs suggest: Fed hikes, stronger $, low inflation, flatter curve still ahead Midway 10 earnings season update: Barely clearing a low bar Meet & Maintain is new Beat & Raise: Results/guides support $118 S&P EPS What to expect for 10 and guidance? Burden on 2H for up 2015 S&P EPS The many measures of S&P EPS Banks are the last cheap stocks left: But what if the yield curve goes flat? 2015's S&P 500 tug-of-war intensifies: Dimmer EPS vs. brighter PE outlook The Hulk flexes, S&P EPS shrinks Is S&P ready for Fed hikes?: 10 FAQs Reaching for small caps, selectively: Prefer small Retailers vs. small Banks Tech Titans can overcome the Hulk Why should investors look through it? Repatriation holiday: Good step to a territorial system, but not a substitute Finding Domestic S&P 500 stocks: Both Domestic Cyclicals & Defensives US equity strategy 2015 Outlook * Chartbook publications EFTA01476541
Source: Deutsche Bank Research Title 8-Nov-15 2015 S&P gains now PE expansion dependent 8-Nov-15 S&P 500 Industrial Capital Goods: High risk, low reward - we prefer Tech 1-Nov-15 Seven Signs: 2 Red, 4 Yellow, 1 Green 23-Oct-15 The PE tug-of-war continues in 2015: Slow EPS growth vs. low bond yields 16-Oct-15 2015 S&P Outlook: Better time for consumers, but tougher for producers 12-Oct-15 What's a profit recession? 2-Oct-15 Happy Thanksgiving: US GDP vs. S&P 28-Sep-15 Macro trends favor Retailers over Industrial Capital Goods, so do we 18-Sep-15 Dollar and oil snip S&P 4Q EPS 11-Sep-15 Slow growth, but strong payouts: Definitive dividend vs blurry buybacks 4-Sep-15 Trick or treat? Skip the dark houses 25-Aug-15 Post-bounce strategy into yearend 21-Aug-15 Better time for consumers ahead, tougher time for producers 14-Aug-15 Dollar Hulk? A somewhat stronger greenback ok, but beware the beast 6-Aug-15 Midterm elections matter, but no reason for correction 19-Jul-15 Catching a falling knife? 12-Jul-15 PE expansion is rare as the Fed hikes 2-Jul-15 S&P EPS growth after the super-cycle 26-Jun-15 The Seven Signs: Interest Rates, Oil Prices & the Dollar * 21-Jun-15 2Q EPS finishes with S&P at its top 12-Jun-15 Good reasons to return to the top 5-Jun-15 Dog days of August: Heat from interest rate and geopolitical anxiety 29-May-15 Lo and behold: Participation rate ticks up, mitigating interest rate risk 22-May-15 The pressure release valve gets stuck: Treasury yields climb as stocks sell off 15-May-15 The Seven Signs: Has the climb in yields begun? * 10-May-15 2Q growth better, as expected, but leaves market PE driven 1-May-15 Thematic sector strategy update: OW Secular Growth sectors & Financials 26-Apr-15 The hunt for sales growth 17-Apr-15 Help wanted: A participation spurt with reliable productivity needed 12-Apr-15 2Q EPS: A moment of truth for EPS acceleration 2-Apr-15 The Golden Ratio: Real GDP / Inflation 27-Mar-15 Summer Flip-book * 22-Mar-15 S&P 500 Valuation: Sum of Sectors 13-Mar-15 S&P Valuation Chartbook - Snapshot at another record high * 9-Mar-15 Chasing in the summer: Is it worth it? 27-Feb-15 Standing on the shoulders of bonds 18-Feb-15 GDP is a deceptive denominator: Several popular charts improved 6-Feb-15 Bank those Energy gains 3-Feb-15 Yields are key to S&P PE & Styles: Watch Participation & Productivity EFTA01476542
30-Jan-15 Signature Charts * 2015 S&P Outlook: Better time for consumers, but tougher for producers Date 25-Jan-15 18-Jan-15 13-Jan-15 11-Jan-15 15-Dec-14 5-Dec-14 26-Nov-14 21-Nov-14 14-Nov-14 7-Nov-14 31-Oct-14 26-Oct-14 19-Oct-14 10-Oct-14 9-Oct-14 26-Sep-14 19-Sep-14 12-Sep-14 11-Sep-14 24-Aug-14 15-Aug-14 8-Aug-14 1-Aug-14 1-Aug-14 31-Jul-14 25-Jul-14 18-Jul-14 13-Jul-14 2-Jul-14 30-Jun-14 20-Jun-14 18-Jun-14 13-Jun-14 13-Jun-14 6-Jun-14 30-May-14 22-May-14 16-May-14 11-May-14 9-May-14 15-Dec-14 EFTA01476543
20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Appendix 1 Important Disclosures Additional information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/- ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. David Bianco/Ju Wang/Winnie Nip Equity rating key Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock. Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total shareholder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell. Notes: 1. Newly issued research recommendations and target prices always supersede previously published research. 2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were: Buy: Expected total return (including dividends) of 10% or more over a 12-month period Hold: Expected total return (including dividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12month period Sell: Expected total return (including dividends) of -10% or worse over a 12-month period Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships 100 150 200 250 300 EFTA01476544
350 400 450 500 50 0 Buy Companies Covered Hold 50 % 54 % 41 % 2 %35 % Sell Cos. w/ Banking Relationship North American Universe 48 % Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 47 EFTA01476545
20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Regulatory Disclosures 1.Important Additional Conflict Disclosures Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. 2.Short-Term Trade Ideas Deutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that are consistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found at the SOLAR link at http://gm.db.com. Page 48 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. EFTA01476546
20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively "Deutsche Bank"). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within Deutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differ from recommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies or otherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates may also be holding debt securities of the issuers it writes on. Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates, which includes investment banking revenues. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof if any opinion, forecast or estimate contained herein changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. This report is provided for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Target prices are inherently imprecise and a product of the analyst's judgment. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed investment decisions. Prices and availability of financial instruments are subject to change without notice and investment transactions can lead to losses as a result of price fluctuations and other factors. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investor's currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Unless otherwise indicated, prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session, and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and in EFTA01476547
some cases, other parties. Macroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments that promise to pay fixed or variable interest rates. For an investor who is long fixed rate instruments (thus receiving these cash flows), increases in interest rates naturally lift the discount factors applied to the expected cash flows and thus cause a loss. The longer the maturity of a certain cash flow and the higher the move in the discount factor, the higher will be the loss. Upside surprises in inflation, fiscal funding needs, and FX depreciation rates are among the most common adverse macroeconomic shocks to receivers. But counterparty exposure, issuer creditworthiness, client segmentation, regulation (including changes in assets holding limits for different types of investors), changes in tax policies, currency convertibility (which may constrain currency conversion, repatriation of profits and/or the liquidation of positions), and settlement issues related to local clearing houses are also important risk factors to be considered. The sensitivity of fixed income instruments to macroeconomic shocks may be mitigated by indexing the contracted cash flows to inflation, to FX depreciation, or to specified interest rates — these are common in emerging markets. It is important to note that the index fixings may -- by construction -- lag or mis-measure the actual move in the underlying variables they are intended to track. The choice of the proper fixing (or metric) is particularly important in swaps markets, where floating coupon rates (i.e., coupons indexed to a typically short-dated interest rate reference index) are exchanged for fixed coupons. It is also important to acknowledge that funding in a currency that differs from the currency in which coupons are denominated carries FX risk. Naturally, options on swaps (swaptions) also bear the risks typical to options in addition to the risks related to rates movements. Derivative transactions involve numerous risks including, among others, market, counterparty default and illiquidity risk. The appropriateness or otherwise of these products for use by investors is dependent on the investors' own circumstances including their tax position, their regulatory environment and the nature of their other assets and liabilities, and as such, investors should take expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 49 EFTA01476548
20 November 2015 US Equity Insights to or inspired by the contents of this publication. The risk of loss in futures trading and options, foreign or domestic, can be substantial. As a result of the high degree of leverage obtainable in futures and options trading, losses may be incurred that are greater than the amount of funds initially deposited. Trading in options involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option investors must review the "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options", at http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character- risks.jsp. If you are unable to access the website please contact your Deutsche Bank representative for a copy of this important document. Participants in foreign exchange transactions may incur risks arising from several factors, including the following: ( i) exchange rates can be volatile and are subject to large fluctuations; ( ii) the value of currencies may be affected by numerous market factors, including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equity and debt markets and changes in interest rates; and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government imposed exchange controls which could affect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are affected by the currency of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the investor's home jurisdiction. United States: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Incorporated, a member of FINRA, NFA and SIPC. Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Deutsche Bank Securities Incorporated and therefore may not be subject to FINRA regulations concerning communications with subject company, public appearances and securities held by the analysts. Germany: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank AG, a joint stock corporation with limited liability incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany with its principal office in Frankfurt am Main. Deutsche Bank AG is authorized under German Banking Law (competent authority: European Central Bank) and is subject to supervision by the European Central Bank and by BaFin, Germany's Federal Financial Supervisory Authority. United Kingdom: Approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank AG acting through its London Branch at Winchester House, 1 Great Winchester Street, London EC2N 2DB. Deutsche Bank AG in the United Kingdom is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial EFTA01476549
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