2000 + Growth from net share repurchases 2109 = Long-term S&P 500 EPS/DPS growth 2.05% + Fair normal dividend yield 1.94% = Total shareholder return at constant PE 2000 Value added growth premium in fair value est. S&P 500 Cost of Equity & Fair Book Multiple 15.9% Fair long-term nominal return on S&P 500 index $750 Components of estimated fair S&P 500 return: 14.7% + Long-term real risk free interest rate + Long-term fair S&P 500 equity risk premium* 39% = Long-term real S&P 500 cost of equity 7.50% + Long-term inflation forecast 0.00% = S&P 500 nominal cost of equity 2.00% 2.13% Fair S&P 500 Market Value and Book Value Multiple 0.00% 2014 end S&P 500 book value per share 4.13% Fair PB = Fair PE * normal aggregate ROE 1.33% Fair PE = (ROE-g) / (real ROE*(real CoE-real g)) 5.45% Implied S&P 500 fair value of book at 2015 start 2.05% Steady-state PB = normal agg. ROE / real CoE 7.50% Confirmed by fair steady-state PE = 1 / real CoE 0% Normal 2015E economic profit per share S&P 500 EPS discount model 5 steps to value: 1) Estimate normalized S&P 500 EPS 2) Adjust normalized EPS for pro forma accounting quality 3) Estimate a fair long-term real return on S&P 500 ownership (CoE) 4) Capitalize normalized and accounting quality adj. EPS at real CoE 5) Consider long-term potential for value added growth opportunities Source: Deutsche Bank Real cost of equity Sensitivity matrix of S&P fair value at 2015 yearend to normalized EPS and Real CoE Normal 2015E S&P 500 EPS 5.00% 5.25% 5.50% 5.75% 6.00% $118 2227 2124 2031 1945 1867 $120 2270 2165 EFTA01476403

2070 1983 1903 $122 2313 2206 2109 2020 1939 $125 2377 2267 2168 2077 1993 $130 2484 2370 2265 2170 2083 $135 2591 2472 2363 2264 2173 $750 2.67 18.2 2000 2.67 18.2 $68.75 7.50% 1.50% 4.00% 5.50% 2.00% 7.50% * S&P 500 ERP usually 300-400bps, w/ real CoE 5.5% 6.5% EFTA01476404

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights What's normal S&P EPS growth? It depends on EPS retention. Figure 44: S&P nominal and real trailing 4-qtr EPS growth (y/y % chg) -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% S&P 500 EPS CAGR from 1960-2013 was Nominal: 6.7% Real: 2.8% 1960-2013 Nominal CAGR: 6.7% 1960-2013 Real CAGR: 2.8% Series2 Nominal lyr EPS growth Source: S&P, Deutsche Bank Real lyr EPS growth Figure 45: Rolling 3yr and 10yr Real EPS growth -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Median Rolling Real EPS Growth: 1960-1993: 3yr CAGR 1.2%; 10yr CAGR: 1.9% 1994- 2013: 3yr CAGR 7.3% ; 10yr CAGR: 5.4% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Rolling 3 yr Real EPS CAGR Source: S&P, Deutsche Bank Rolling 10yr Real EPS CAGR Rolling 3yr and 10yr CAGR of real EPS growth show higher EPS growth since mid 1990s than from 1960 to 1990 Page 22 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. EFTA01476405

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 EFTA01476406

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Figure 46: S&P 500 dividend payout ratio and subsequent EPS growth trend 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% Median Forward 10yr TrendEPS Growth: 1960-1984: 1.4% 1985-2004: 4.5% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 3yr Avg. Div Payout (lhs) Subsequent 10yr Real EPS Trend Growth (rhs) Note: EPS trend growth is the regressed exponential growth rate that best explains all observed EPS over the subsequent 10yr period Source: S&P, Deutsche Bank Is the empirical proof that retained earnings affect long-term EPS growth? The empirical evidence on earnings retention and long-term EPS growth is inconclusive. However, the theory is robust and consistent with DCF based corporate finance. Figure 47: S&P div payout ratio vs. subsequent 10yr rolling real EPS growth (1960-2004) -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 30% 1990 1986 1992 2003 EFTA01476407

2004 2000 1996 1997 1994 1995 1988 1984 1978 1998 1979 1980 1999 1974 1976 1973 35% 40% 1981 45% 50% 55% 60% Dividend payout ratio (%) Source: Deutsche Bank 65% 70% 75% 80% 1972 1965 1966 y = 0.1055x - 0.0228 R2 = 0.1718 1977 1975 1989 1987 1983 1985 1993 1971 1968 1969 1982 1963 1961 1964 1962 1967 1960 2002 2001 1970 EFTA01476408

1991 The chart above shows a positive relationship between payout ratio and subsequent 10 year real EPS growth. However, the data includes recessions, which causes payout ratios to surge and associated subsequent EPS growth to be measured from depressed levels. The regression is inconclusive if one excludes years with payout ratio > 60% or 10yr EPS growth <1% (chart below). Deutsche Bank Securities Inc Page 23 Subsequent 10yr rolling real EPS growth 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 EFTA01476409

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Figure 48: S&P 500 div payout ratio vs. subsequent 10yr real EPS growth (1960-2004, excluding years with EPS growth <1% or dividend payout >60%) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% y = -0.0044x + 0 0382 R2 = 0.0005 1986 1996 1995 2003 1997 2004 1988 1983 1984 1982 2000 1978 1998 30% 35% 40% 45% Dividend payout ratio <60% Source: Deutsche Bank, S&P, IBES 50% 55% 60% 1975 1969 1971 1964 19681967 1962 1960 1963 1994 1989 1987 1985 2002 1993 Years excluded in Figure 149 are: 1961, 1965, 1966, 1970, 1972, 1973, 1974, EFTA01476410

1976, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1999 and 2001. The years in bold are the ones which were recession at start of the 10yr period and the years underlined were recession at the end of the 10yr period. Figure 49: Real S&P 500 earnings growth and dividend yield -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Real Trailing EPS y/y Growth Source: Deutsche Bank, IBES, S&P In concept, the higher the payout the more the fair PE converges with a steady-state PE of 1/real CoE. The S&P PE is often above average when its dividend payout ratio is high, but this is usually because its EPS is cyclically depressed following recessions. Some studies suggest that high dividend payout ratios lead to strong EPS growth, but this fails to account for the distortion of cyclically peaked payout ratio and then EPS growth measured from depressed levels. long and strong growth periods -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Real Trailing EPS y/y Growth + Div Yield Page 24 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 EFTA01476411

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Subsequent 10yr rolling EPS growth >196 EFTA01476412

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Figure 50: S&P 500 trailing PE vs. dividend payout ratio (1960-2014) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Recession Dividend Payout Ratio (trailing 4-qtr, lhs) Source: I/B/E/S, S&P, Deutsche Bank 10 15 20 25 30 35 5 5 25% S&P 500 Trailing PE (rhs) 30% 35% Source: I/B/E/S, S&P, Deutsche Bank 40% 45% 50% Dividend Payout Ratio (trailing 4-qtr) 55% 60% 65% Figure 51: S&P 500 trailing PE vs. dividend payout ratio (1960-2014, ex. recessions and 1 year after recessions) 10 15 20 25 30 35 y = -1.8307x + 16.679 R2 = 0.0015 1960-2014 (excluding recessions and the year followign recessions) Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 25 1960 1965 1970 1975 EFTA01476413

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 S&P 500 Trailing PE EFTA01476414

US Equity Insights 20 November 2015 Page 26 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Figure 52: Our S&P Intrinsic Valuation Model S&P 500 Capitalized EPS Valuation Deutsche Bank's 2015E S&P 500 EPS DB's "normal 2015E" S&P 500 EPS "Normal 2015E" EPS / 2015E EPS Accounting quality adjustment to pro forma EPS Normal 2015E S&P 500 EPS fair to capitalize Key principle: steady-state value = normal EPS / real CoE S&P 500 EPS Capitalization Valuation Normal EPS / (real CoE - (EM/payout) - EM): S&P 500 intrinsic value at 2015 start S&P 500 intrinsic value at 2015 end Implied fair fwd PE in early 2015 on 2015E $119 EPS Implied fair trailing PE at 2015 end on 2015E $119 EPS Normal EPS / (real CoE-value added EPS growth) S&P 500 Dividend Discount Model S&P 500 Long-term EPS & DPS Growth $119 Deutsche Bank's 2015E S&P 500 DPS 2015E dividend payout ratio $122 DB's "normal 2015E" S&P 500 DPS 103% Normal dividend payout ratio -$12.00 EPS directed to net share repurchases Normal share repurchase payout ratio $110 Total payout of S&P 500 EPS Total payout rate S&P 500 DPS Discount Model Normal DPS / (nominal CoE - DPS growth): 2000 S&P 500 intrinsic value at 2015 start 2109 S&P 500 intrinsic value at 2015 end 16.8 17.7 2000 Implied fair forward yield on 2015E DPS of $41.0 Implied fair trailing yield on 2015E DPS of $41.0 DPS discount model using true DPS (all payout) $41.00 Deutsche Bank's 2015E S&P 500 aggregate ROE 34% 2014 end S&P 500 book value per share $41.00 DB's "normal 2015E" S&P 500 aggregate ROE 37% S&P 500 EPS retained for true reinvestment $26.50 Estimated ROE on reinvested S&P 500 EPS 24% Economic margin (EM) or ROE-CoE $67.50 Sources of long-term earnings growth: 61% + Long-term inflation forecast + Fair return on true reinvestment + Value added return on true reinvestment = Long-term earnings growth EFTA01476415

2000 + Growth from net share repurchases 2109 = Long-term S&P 500 EPS/DPS growth 2.05% + Fair normal dividend yield 1.94% = Total shareholder return at constant PE 2000 Value added growth premium in fair value est. S&P 500 Cost of Equity & Fair Book Multiple 15.9% Fair long-term nominal return on S&P 500 index $750 Components of estimated fair S&P 500 return: 14.7% + Long-term real risk free interest rate + Long-term fair S&P 500 equity risk premium* 39% = Long-term real S&P 500 cost of equity 7.50% + Long-term inflation forecast 0.00% = S&P 500 nominal cost of equity 2.00% 2.13% Fair S&P 500 Market Value and Book Value Multiple 0.00% 2014 end S&P 500 book value per share 4.13% Fair PB = Fair PE * normal aggregate ROE 1.33% Fair PE = (ROE-g) / (real ROE*(real CoE-real g)) 5.45% Implied S&P 500 fair value of book at 2015 start 2.05% Steady-state PB = normal agg. ROE / real CoE 7.50% Confirmed by fair steady-state PE = 1 / real CoE 0% Normal 2015E economic profit per share S&P 500 EPS discount model 5 steps to value: 1) Estimate normalized S&P 500 EPS 2) Adjust normalized EPS for pro forma accounting quality 3) Estimate a fair long-term real return on S&P 500 ownership (CoE) 4) Capitalize normalized and accounting quality adj. EPS at real CoE 5) Consider long-term potential for value added growth opportunities Real cost of equity Sensitivity matrix of S&P fair value at 2015 yearend to normalized EPS and Real CoE Normal 2015E S&P 500 EPS 5.00% 5.25% 5.50% 5.75% 6.00% $118 2227 2124 2031 1945 1867 $120 2270 2165 2070 EFTA01476416

1983 1903 $122 2313 2206 2109 2020 1939 $125 2377 2267 2168 2077 1993 $130 2484 2370 2265 2170 2083 $135 2591 2472 2363 2264 2173 $750 2.67 18.2 2000 2.67 18.2 $68.75 7.50% 1.50% 4.00% 5.50% 2.00% 7.50% * S&P 500 ERP usually 300-400bps, w/ real CoE Source: Deutsche Bank 5.5% 6.5% EFTA01476417

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights 30 EPS Tracker 479 S&P 500 companies comprising 98% of S&P earnings have reported. 62% of companies beat on EPS with a weighted average beat of 3.9% (5.3% ex Fin). 33% of companies beat on sales with a weighted average miss of -0.4% (-0.5% ex Fin). Big banks posted soft profits to start the earnings season, on moderate loan growth, a still challenging rate environment and lulls in trading and capital markets. Industrials companies reported weak results and guidance. Sizable beats from Tech giants GOOG, MSFT & AMZN brightened 3Q earnings season. Health Care companies (PFE, BMY, GILD, BAX) had large beats on both EPS and sales. Large Oil & Gas companies (XOM, CVX, MPC, VLO) had big beats on EPS on very low bars. Retailers (M, JWN, FOSL) reported weak results. The blended (actual for reported and estimate for remaining) bottom-up 3Q EPS is $30.02. Less litigation charges vs. a year ago at JPM, BAC, C, and GS is $0.60 tailwind to 3Q15 EPS, adding 2% to 3Q S&P EPS y/y growth. We think 3Q EPS will finalize around $30.00, flattish y/y, with sales down —4%, margins up —3%, and —1% from share count shrink. Analysts continue to cut 4Q15 EPS and btm-up 4Q EPS is $29.72 now, down from $31.21 on 9/1/2015. Our 4Q EPS estimate is $30.25, essentially flat y/y. We think 4Q growth will be slow: (1) FX will be a smaller drag; (2) Oil still a negative; (3) Mfg, exports, and capex continue to deteriorate; (4) Low interest rates continue to challenge NIM of Banks; (5) Less bank litigations is a positive; (6) Slower buybacks a smaller contribution to EPS growth; (7) Fair value pension charges at year end hit 4Q operating EPS. (8) Oct Mfg. ISM is 50.1, weakest since Dec 2012. Latest core capital goods new orders are -5.8% y/y, worst since Dec 2009. Mfg. IP ex Auto growth is weak. Analysts have cut 2015 S&P 500 EPS by 1.2% since June end, led by the 6.8% and 7.9% cuts in Energy and Materials earnings, on renewed worries of lower for longer oil and commodity prices. The consensus 2015 btm-up EPS is $118.63, about $0.35 lower than our estimate of $119. Blended EPS y/y growth is -0.2% for S&P 500, 7.0% ex. Energy, and 6.4% ex. Energy & Financials. Blended sales y/y growth is -4.1% for S&P, 1.3% ex. Energy, and 1.6% ex. Energy & Financials. Blended sales growth is strongest at Health Care (9.2%) again, followed by Cons. Disc. (3.8%). All other sectors (except Telecom) have sales decline or low single digit sales growth. Tech sales growth is 0.5% y/y (-4.7% ex AAPL & GOOG) due to continuing weak enterprise spending. There is significant revenue recession at Energy (-36.5%), Materials (-13.3%) and Industrials (5.3%). Blended EPS y/y growth is strongest at Cons. Disc. (17.1%), followed by Telecom (15.3%), Health Care (13.9%), Financials (9.2%) and Tech (7.5%). Tech ex AAPL & GOOG EPS is -0.1% y/y. There is significant profit recession at EFTA01476418

Energy (-57.0%) and Materials (-16.6%). Industrials EPS is flat y/y. S&P net margins remains at historic highs. Blended net margin is 10.8% for S&P 500, 11.3% ex. Energy, and 10.5% ex. Energy & Financials. Margins at Cons. Disc. expanded to 7.8%, its highest during this cycle. Health Care (10.6%) and Tech (19.4%) margins continued to hold up well. As sectors with Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 27 EFTA01476419

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights high foreign currency didn't hurt margins much revenue and costs and flattish from plummet. Figure 53: % of EPS reported S&P 500 S&P 500 ex. Financials S&P 500 ex. Energy S&P ex. Tech Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Materials Telecommunication Utilities Source: IBES, Deutsche 3Q15 Summary (Based on EPS (% of of co's) # Cos reported 97.8% 97.3% 97.7% 98.5% 97.9% 95.5% 100.0% 100.0% 97.0% 98.7% 95.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 479 392 439 413 77 32 40 sales, they demonstrated that the stronger dollar despite a significant hit to sales as foreign currency were fairly well aligned. Energy margins were 5.4% in 3Q 1H, but much lower than the 8%+ before the oil price Summary statistics on 3Q 2015 EPS reporting Technology Services Bank reported companies) EFTA01476420

87 52 63 66 28 5 29 65% 62% 61% 57% 63% 70% 52% 79% 68% 68% 46% 80% 52% 25% 23% 25% 26% 26% 19% 25% 34% 10% 21% 15% 46% 20% 38% EPS EPS Sales (% of co's) 3.9% 0.0% 33% 5.3% -2.1% 34% 3.2% 7.4% 33% 3.6% -1.8% 31% 50% 52% 49% 54% 56% 50% 65% 43% 31% 67% EFTA01476421

24% 75% 20% 72% Sales Sales % beat % miss surprise (%) y/y (%) % beat % miss surprise (%) y/y (%) 62% -0.4% -4.4% -0.5% -5.1% -0.6% 1.3% -0.5% -5.0% 4.2% 17.6% 43% 2.5% -2.8% 34% 20.9% -57.0% 30% -1.2% 9.2% 28% 7.5% 14.3% 52% 3.8% 1.8% 17% 5.4% 8.1% 39% -2.1% -16.6% 14% 3.5% 15.3% 40% 0.3% -2.0% 21% 0.0% 3.0% -1.2% 1.4% 1.3% -36.5% 0.0% -0.1% 0.6% 8.5% -1.2% -4.7% 0.6% 1.2% -5.1% -13.3% -2.1% 12.3% -4.6% -2.0% Figure 54: Fish hooks: S&P 500 quarterly btm-up EPS revisions 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 4Q14 S&P 500 quarterly btm-up EPS revisions 3Q14 4Q13 3Q13 EFTA01476422

4012 4011 3011 2011 2Q12 3012 1Q12 1Q13 2Q13 1Q14 2Q14 2015 3Q15 4Q15 1015 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Figure 55: Change in quarterly EPS before and during reporting (1Q11 — now) -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Avg (1Q11-2015): 3.3% Avg: -3.9% EPS beat during reporting EPS cut prior to reporting Source: IBES, Deutsche Bank Source: IBES, Deutsche Bank Page 28 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 EFTA01476423

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct -12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct -13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct -15 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 EFTA01476424

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Figure 56: Change in btm-up 3Q15 EPS since 6/30/2015 (current 3Q EPS is blended: actual for reported and consensus for the rest) -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 6.1% 3.9% 0.0% 1.2% 1.1% 1.7% -0.2% -0.4% -3.0% 0.0% -4.6% 1.7% -2.5% -2.4% 7.1% Figure 57: Change in btm-up 2015 EPS since 6/30/2015 -14.5% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% Change in btm-up 2015 EPS since 6/30/2015 -1.2%-1.0% -1.0%-1.2% -2.8% -0.7% 0.0% 3.2% 2.2% -0.6% -2.1% -2.0% -1.5% -1.4% -6.5% -7.9% Source: IBES, Deutsche Bank Source: IBES, Deutsche Bank EFTA01476425

Figure 58: S&P EPS (earnings weight) to be reported each week 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% S&P 500 EPS (earnings weight) to be reported each week 32.2% 27.0% 16.7% 12.4% 3.2% 1.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% Figure 59: Sector EPS (earnings weight) to be reported each week 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Reported After 11/22 #21 Source: IBES, Deutsche Bank Source: IBES, Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 29 S&P Pre-season # 19 W1 (10/5-10/9) #5 ex. Tech En, Fin. W2 (10/12-10/16) #34 Ex. En, Fin W3 (10/19-10/23) W4 (10/26-10/30) W5 (11/2-11/6) W6 (11/9-11/13) W7(11/16-11/20) After 11/23 EFTA01476426

#114 #168 #102 #19 #18 #21 Materials Telecom Utilities Ex. En, Fin, HC Disc. Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Tech ex. Fin ex. En Disc. S&P Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Tech Materials Telecom Utilities Health Care Industrials Tech Materials Telecom Utilities Ex. En, Fin, HC Disc. Staples Energy Financials ex. Fin ex. En ex. Tech En, Fin. Ex. En, Fin EFTA01476427

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Figure 60: S&P 500 quarterly EPS & Sales growth and Net Margins by sector (3015 is blended with actual for reported and consensus for the rest) 2011 EPS growth (y/y) S&P 500 S&P 500 ex. Financials S&P 500 ex. Energy S&P 500 ex. Tech S&P ex. Energy & Financials S&P ex. Energy, Financials, Healthcare Consumer Discretionary Multiline & Specialty Retail Cons. Disc. ex. Auto & Home Builders Consumer Staples Energy Energy Equipment & Services Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Financials Financials ex. BAC, C & 3PM Health Care Industrials Industrials ex. Defense Information Technology Tech ex. AAPL & GOOG Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities 1011 2011 3Q11 4Q11 1012 2012 2012 3012 4012 1013 8.8% 8.2% 3.2% 8.8% 18.4% 15.2% 13.1% 11.3% 10.7% 5.9% 2.4% 4.5% 20.4% 16.7% 13.2% 11.3% 12.0% 5.5% 2.4% 5.0% 3.1% 5.5% 6.4% 3.2% 3.3% 2013 2013 3013 EFTA01476428

4Q13 1Q14 2014 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2015 2Q15 3Q15 18.4% 12.3% 17.5% 9.9% 10.5% 8.3% 3.3% 7.3% 5.1% 6.3% 5.8% 10.4% 5.2% 9.3% 10.8% 6.7% 2.8% 1.7% -0.2% 21.1% 19.2% 19.8% 11.6% 9.3% 2.2% -0.2% 5.9% 15.9% 8.0% 11.9% 9.4% 11.8% 12.7% 6.1% 6.4% 17.1% 9.9% 19.0% 7.5% 1.3% 7.2% 7.5% 6.5% 13.5% 9.5% 9.1% -0.3% -1.7% -2.3% 8.3% 7.7% 13.3% 5.9% 8.2% 10.8% 10.6% 11.1% 9.4% 7.0% 8.3% 5.0% 10.2% 4.5% 7.7% 10.9% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% -2.0% 3.0% 10.0% 10.6% 7.7% 12.7% 9.3% 14.4% 9.7% 7.4% 6.4% 2.4% 10.2% 10.8% 7.0% 11.5% 8.0% 12.9% 7.7% 6.0% 4.8% 18.1% 7.6% 20.7% 13.5% 11.3% -0.1% 8.1% 13.7% 8.1% 14.3% 21.6% 7.1% 7.3% 7.6% -1.5% 15.7% 9.3% 12.3% 17.1% 15.7% 19.4% 18.6% 14.9% 20.5% 9.3% 10.1% 13.2% 8.8% 17.3% 13.8% -6.3% 0.6% 7.7% 11.4% 22.6% 17.2% 11.2% 15.1% 13.1% 21.9% 19.9% 17.4% 18.9% 8.5% 11.3% 11.1% 11.6% 17.1% 13.5% 5.1% 14.4% 11.0% 10.3% 14.6% 6.2% 7.7% 12.2% 8.5% 11.3% 10.3% 6.4% 7.6% 3.8% 1.4% 9.9% 3.5% 2.4% 6.0% 4.2% 4.0% 7.4% 6.5% 0.0% 4.0% 0.9% -2.4% 36.6% 41.6% 62.7% 13.2% 2.7% -14.3% -11.9% 13.3% 2.3% -7.6% -7.4% -8.5% 0.0% 18.6% 10.9% -24.3% -57.6% -56.1% -57.0% -3.6% 19.0% 26.8% 26.1% 30.9% 15.7% 8.6% -4.9% -1.9% 1.0% 10.7% 16.5% 15.8% 20.9% 16.7% 22.2% -22.3% -44.9% -55.1% 42.6% 44.5% 68.3% 11.2% -0.3% -17.7% -14.5% 16.5% 2.9% -9.1% -10.4% -12.2% -2.4% 18.2% 9.7% -33.5% -63.4% -58.3% -57.5% 6.3% -23.9% 6.6% 0.9% 16.0% 54.9% 23.3% 15.4% 14.0% 30.6% -0.9% 24.7% -0.1% -6.5% 17.0% -3.4% 16.2% 17.3% 9.2% 10.8% 3.5% 0.9% 0.6% 25.1% 16.8% 42.5% 13.3% 11.3% 27.4% 11.1% 22.1% 7.3% 6.7% 11.6% 3.9% 7.1% 1.9% -5.4% 10.6% 8.6% 12.5% 11.2% 5.4% 7.8% 2.2% 1.9% 38.7% 16.2% 17.5% 18.6% 19.3% 16.8% 5.6% -3.9% 5.7% 45.3% 17.1% 19.0% 19.5% 19.8% 18.2% 6.2% -2.9% 5.4% 23.9% 23.3% 11.5% 18.5% 17.5% 8.7% 3.5% 2.4% 17.1% 11.8% 5.2% 3.6% 2.7% 3.7% 5.8% 0.5% 2.7% 8.5% 1.4% -1.3% -6.8% -8.5% -7.9% 9.0% 2011 Sales growth (y/y) EFTA01476429

S&P 500 S&P 500 ex. Financials S&P 500 ex. Energy S&P 500 ex. Tech S&P ex. Energy & Financials S&P ex. Energy, Financials, Healthcare Consumer Discretionary Multiline & Specialty Retail Cons. Disc. ex. Auto & Home Builders Consumer Staples Energy Energy Equipment & Services Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Financials Financials ex. BAC, C & 3PM Health Care Industrials Industrials ex. Defense Information Technology Tech ex. AAPL & GOOG Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities 1011 2011 3011 4011 9.2% 9.1% 7.1% 1012 2012 2012 3012 4012 9.8% 12.7% 12.3% 8.6% 9.8% 11.1% 10.5% 8.6% 10.8% 12.0% 10.9% 9.2% 10.2% 9.7% 11.5% 8.9% 3.8% 5.1% 4.8% 5.2% 6.2% 3.9% 2.7% 6.6% 6.2% 1.7% 1.0% 5.0% 6.9% 4.0% 2.8% 4.6% 7.1% 3.2% 2.3% 3.9% 11.0% 10.4% 12.3% 10.1% 8.7% 8.1% 10.2% 12.8% 9.9% 1.7% 2.7% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.7% 1013 1.4% 3.4% 1.4% EFTA01476430

3.3% 2 6% 2.7% 11.9% 12.8% 6.1% 15.5% 7.8% 9.1% 2.5% -0.2% -0.1% 5.8% 8.8% 9.7% 10.9% 18.2% 15.8% 22.5% 18.4% 13.3% 13.9% 2.3% 8.8% 20.5% 3.0% 14.6% 14.9% 14.0% 10.3% -0.1% 0.0% 1.8% 8.6% 22.0% 1.2% 15.6% 15.7% 12.7% 11.8% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% -2.2% 9.2% 10.9% 8.1% 17.0% 10.5% 18.2% 10.4% 7.9% 7.5% 5 0% 56.5% 60.3% 23.6% -16.9% -3.0% -13.2% -21.9% 13.8% 0.1% -3.4% 9.0% 17.5% -1.2% 10.4% 20.0% 3.4% 2.1% 8.2% -16.6% -6.0% -3.8% 3.7% -19.2% 9 9% 13.2% 12.9% 3.7% 10.4% 5.4% 8.9% 23.6% 15.7% 4.0% 3.6% 7.3% 0 8% 9.7% 15.3% -5.5% 1.9% -2.8% 2.1% -4.9% 22.4% 0.4% 1.8% 9.4% 2.4% 4.2% -2.0% 2013 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2014 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2015 2Q15 3Q15 10.2% 12.9% 12.1% 8 9% 6.7% 2.2% 1.3% 5.2% 1.7% 2.9% 3.7% 2.2% 3.3% 4.9% 4.3% 1.4% -3.2% -3.7% -4.1% 12.3% 15.1% 13.7% 10.4% 7.3% 2.1% 1.2% 3.5% 7.8% 2.6% 4.2% 3.6% 3.8% 5.2% 4.1% 1.7% -4.2% -4.4% -4.7% 3.8% 3.9% 2.8% 3.8% 5.3% 5.8% 4.7% 2.2% 1.1% 1.3% 3.0% 3.6% 1.8% 3.2% 4.5% 3.9% 0.5% -4.3% -4.5% -4.7% 3.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 5.8% 5.7% 5.8% 2.0% 1.2% 1.6% 3.3% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 4.6% 4.4% 4.1% 0.5% -0.4% -0.1% 7.1% 1.6% 2.6% 3.9% 6.1% 8.3% 4.1% 3.8% 3.4% 3.8% 1.8% 3.6% 2.6% 6.7% 5.9% 4.0% 4.5% 4.7% 4.1% 3.7% 0.8% 2.1% 3.8% 5.1% 4.4% 1.3% 3.2% 5.8% 5.1% 5.5% 4.0% 3.9% 5.1% 5.6% 5.0% 3.9% 5.3% 5.9% 5.3% 4.6% 1.8% 2.6% 3.3% 2.8% 2.5% 3.3% 1.4% 3.3% 2.8% 1.4% 1.8% 0.6% 1.3% 24.7% 34.8% 29.7% 19.3% 9.1% -5.9% -5.4% -1.6% -7.1% -2.2% 2.3% -0.8% 0.6% 2.3% -3.5% -18.0% -34.8% -31.7% -36.5% 30.8% 34.4% 26.6% 26.3% 25.7% 17.5% 11.3% 16.5% 4.7% 9.3% 8.9% -0.4% 7.2% 3.2% 7.0% 5.0% -10.3% -24.8% -33.6% EFTA01476431

24.2% 34.8% 30.0% 18.7% 7.7% -7.9% -6.9% -3.4% -8.3% -3.4% 1.6% -0.8% 2.2% -4.7% -20.9% -37.8% -32.5% -36.9% -1.4% 3.9% 5.3% 0.0% 2.0% -0.9% 2.7% 3.2% 2.3% 17.8% 3.7% 6.6% 1.9% 0.3% 6.9% 8.1% 5.4% 5.1% 12.6% 10.2% 11.1% 8.3% 15.5% 12.8% 13.6% 7.9% 8.3% 6.2% 2.7% 29.1% 33.6% 16.5% 6.0% 2.5% -2.7% 2011 Net margins S&P 500 S&P 500 ex. Financials S&P 500 ex. Energy S&P 500 ex. Tech S&P ex. Energy & Financials S&P ex. Energy, Financials, Healthcare Consumer Discretionary Multiline & Specialty Retail Cons. Disc. ex. Auto & Home Builders Consumer Staples Energy Energy Equipment & Services Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Financials Financials ex. BAC, C & 3PM Health Care Industrials Industrials ex. Defense Information Technology Tech ex. AAPL & GOOG Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities Source: IBES, Deutsche Bank 1Q11 9.7% 9.3% 9.9% 8.6% 9.4% 9.2% 6.5% 4.9% 6.6% -0.2% EFTA01476432

6.4% 8.6% 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 5.6% 8.1% 5.3% 8.5% 6.6% 5.1% 1.5% 1.9% 7.6% 6.0% 2.1% 2.7% 4.0% 3.1% -0.5% 3.1% 14.7% 14.9% 10.2% 11.7% 10.8% 6.7% 4.6% 7.0% 8.9% 4.6% -2.6% -5.9% 3.8% 7.8% 6.0% 10.2% 8.0% 2.7% 2.3% 2.1% 8.3% 2.8% 6.3% -3.3% -2.4% 0.8% 5.1% 2012 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 9.2% 9.4% 9.3% 9.1% 8.7% 8.9% 8.9% 8.2% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 9.2% 9.4% 9.6% 9.4% 9.3% 5.7% 4.7% 6.3% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 1Q13 9.3% 9.0% 9.4% 9.3% 3.3% 8.6% 23.6% 4.3% 7.1% 0.3% 0.7% 4.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.6% 5.6% 4.4% 0.3% -6.1% -0.1% 2.5% 6.2% -1.1% 3.0% 0.7% -0.1% 3.3% -0.9% -8.0% 1.0% 4.3% 6.7% -0.2% 4.0% 0.9% 1.0% 5.6% 9.2% 8.8% 8.9% 11.8% 11.7% 13.6% 9.1% 8.1% 9.2% 1.0% 1.6% 2.5% 1.6% 3.7% 4.5% 3.9% -2.3% -3.5% -5.3% 1.4% 2.2% 3.5% 2.3% 4.6% 5.3% 3.9% -2.4% -4.1% -6.1% 1.5% 4.2% 5.5% 3.7% 8.5% 7.9% 8.2% 5.5% 2.5% 0.5% 0.8% 4.1% 4.8% 3.1% 8.6% 6.9% 2.5% 0.2% -3.3% -4.7% 2.0% 6.1% 3.5% 1.5% 3.2% 2.4% -1.7% -9.2% -9.5% -13.3% 2.2% 2.6% 2.1% 3.7% 3.1% 3.0% 5.2% 2.5% 2.4% 12.3% 8.8% 2.5% 2.7% 16.8% 3.1% 4.7% 9.1% -2.5% -4.6% -2.0% EFTA01476433

2013 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2014 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2015 2Q15 3Q15 9.5% 9.8% 9.3% 9.8% 9.8% 9.9% 9.4% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.1% 10.4% 10.5% 10.4% 10.6% 10.8% 10.8% 9.6% 9.6% 9.0% 9.2% 9.5% 9.3% 9.4% 9.7% 9.8% 9.8% 9.6% 9.9% 10.0% 9.6% 10.0% 9.7% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 9.6% 10.3% 10.6% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.7% 10.8% 10.8% 11.1% 11.4% 11.3% 8.5% 8.9% 8.0% 9.7% 9.7% 9.3% 9.6% 9.5% 9.3% 9.2% 9.0% 8.7% 9.0% 9.4% 9.5% 8.9% 9.4% 9.8% 9.7% 9.6% 9.9% 9.6% 9.6% 10.0% 10.1% 10.2% 10.2% 10.5% 10.5% 9.5% 9.9% 9.8% 9.5% 10.0% 10.2% 10.4% 10.0% 10.4% 10.5% 7.1% 6.7% 6.2% 5.6% 4.6% 6.0% 7.3% 7.2% 7.3% 7.1% 6.9% 6.5% 8.9% 9.1% 7.5% 8.0% 8.4% 8.2% 6.3% 6.8% 6.9% 6.6% 5.2% 6.7% 6.2% 6.9% 6.6% 6.8% 7.9% 7.9% 8.3% 8.4% 8.0% 7.7% 7.5% 7.8% 6.3% 5.3% 7.0% 6.4% 8.5% 7.9% 7.1% 7.8% 6.6% 6.4% 7.1% 7.1% 7.2% 6.7% 7.5% 7.8% 6.0% 4.9% 5.6% 4.9% 5.8% 5.0% 6.2% 5.3% 6.0% 5.5% 7.8% 7.9% 7.4% 7.4% 7.9% 8.0% 7.9% 7.4% 8.0% 8.7% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.4% 7.1% 7.0% 6.7% 6.5% 7.0% 6.8% 7.3% 7.3% 7.6% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 6.9% 5.4% 5.2% 5.4% 11.7% 11.6% 11.8% 11.9% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 11.4% 11.2% 11.0% 11.0% 11.4% 11.6% 12.0% 12.2% 12.6% 12.3% 11.6% 8.5% EFTA01476434

7.8% 7.8% 7.5% 7.2% 7.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.3% 6.7% 5.9% 5.0% 12.2% 8.7% 11.4% 11.5% 13.8% 13.0% 13.6% 11.3% 15.0% 16.1% 13.5% 15.0% 14.6% 14.7% 14.4% 16.6% 16.7% 16.0% 11.7% 10.9% 10.3% 12.0% 14.0% 12.3% 13.4% 10.9% 14.7% 15.0% 14.9% 14.5% 15.6% 15.2% 15.4% 14.9% 15.7% 15.1% 14.6% 10.7% 10.3% 10.5% 9.7% 10.3% 10.0% 10.0% 9.1% 6.9% 7.0% 8.0% 8.2% 8.1% 8.1% 8.4% 8.2% 7.6% 8.7% 8.4% 7.5% 7.7% 8.9% 8.6% 7.7% 8.5% 8.2% 6.2% 9.9% 12.2% 7.6% 9.3% 8.8% 6.7% 6.9% 8.5% 9.3% 8.9% 6.1% 9.0% 9.6% 12.0% 8.5% 9.8% 7.9% 8.0% 9.3% 8.9% 9.3% 9.9% 9.8% 9.0% 9.9% 10.3% 10.1% 9.7% 10.8% 11.0% 10.6% 8.8% 9.0% 8.7% 7.9% 9.7% 9.8% 9.5% 8.7% 9.7% 10.0% 8.9% 9.2% 8.9% 7.8% 9.9% 10.0% 9.7% 8.7% 9.9% 10.6% 19.1% 18.7% 18.7% 20.7% 19.8% 18.6% 18.2% 19.6% 18.7% 17.7% 18.7% 20.2% 19.0% 18.5% 18.6% 21.2% 19.3% 18.9% 19.4% 18.0% 17.2% 17.4% 18.6% 17.3% 17.0% 17.1% 18.1% 17.4% 17.0% 18.1% 19.2% 17.7% 17.7% 17.8% 19.8% 17.6% 17.7% 18.7% 10.1% 10.0% 8.1% 6.2% 8 1% 9 0% 8.5% 7.1% 7.9% 9.0% 8.9% 8.2% 8.0% 9.7% 10.4% 7.7% 9.1% 9.0% 7.1% 10.2% 10.5% 10.4% 8.3% 11.0% 11.1% 11.3% 9.0% 12.1% 7.9% 9.9% 8.9% 11.9% 8.0% 10.4% 9.7% 12.1% Page 30 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 15.0% EFTA01476435

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Figure 61: 3Q15 Sales and EPS growth by sector Sales y/y EPS y/y -20% Cons Disc Ex Auto & Home Builders Cons Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Tech Ex AAPL & GOOG Materials Telecom Utilities -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 4% 17% 3% 12% 1% -2% -37% -57% 0% 9% 9% 14% -5% 0% 0% 8% -5% 0% -13% -17% 12% 15% -2% -2% 10% 15% 20% S&P 500 EFTA01476436

-4% 0% S&P 500 ex Energy S&P ex Energy & Fin. Source: Deutsche Bank, IBES 1% 2% 7% 6% Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 31 EFTA01476437

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Figure 62: S&P 500 quarterly EPS GAAP 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 E Q4 E EPS Write-offs 22.79 23.38 EFTA01476438

23.16 18.02 87.35 18.35 18.23 15.36 -17.18 34.77 9.01 0.26 1.43 0.21 2.21 4.11 2.15 4.24 4.69 14.70 16.23 16.92 56.87 19.18 21.44 21.74 22.01 84.37 22.76 24.36 24.38 22.36 93.86 24.49 23.21 22.74 22.91 93.34 26.06 27.34 26.58 27.72 107.70 25.13 27.64 28.04 23.16 103.98 21.95 22.40 24.44 23.25 Year E 92.04 EFTA01476439

2016 Year E 113.00 23.84 34.92 4.37 1.33 0.94 0.18 6.83 1.29 0.87 1.06 1.25 4.47 1.27 0.40 1.68 2.96 6.30 1.69 3.09 3.75 3.71 12.24 1.05 0.42 1.16 1.36 3.99 2.66 2.13 2.19 7.26 14.25 6.62 7.72 5.58 7.00 26.91 12.00 Source: Deutsche Bank, IBES, Company data EPS 23.06 24.81 23.36 20.24 91.47 20.50 22.47 20.05 6.66 69.69 EFTA01476440

13.39 16.03 17.17 17.10 63.69 20.47 22.31 22.81 23.25 88.85 24.03 24.75 26.06 25.32 100.16 26.18 26.30 26.49 26.62 105.59 27.12 27.76 27.74 29.08 111.69 27.79 29.78 30.23 30.43 118.23 28.56 30.12 30.02 30.25 118.95 125.00 S&P 500 Quarterly EPS ($/sh) Pro-forma EPS 10.0% 3.6% -11.7% -11.1% -9.4% -14.2% -67.1% -34.7% -28.6% -14.4% 156.9% 53.0% 0.20 39.1% 0.00 EFTA01476441

32.8% 0.15 36.0% 0.30 0.65 17.4% 0.21 11.0% 0.33 14.2% 0.20 8.9% 0.26 1.00 8.9% 0.27 6.2% 0.04 1.7% 0.24 5.1% 0.39 0.94 3.6% 0.21 5.6% 0.13 4.7% 0.92 9.2% 0.34 1.61 2.5% 0.54 7.3% 0.79 9.0% 0.81 4.7% 0.48 2.61 2.8% 0.14 1.2% 0.23 -0.7% 0.23 -0.6% 0.10 0.70 0.20 20.68 22.31 22.96 23.55 89.50 24.24 25.09 26.25 25.58 101.16 26.45 26.33 26.74 27.01 106.53 27.33 27.89 28.66 29.42 113.30 28.33 30.56 EFTA01476442

31.04 30.90 120.84 28.70 30.35 30.25 30.35 119.65 125.20 Litigation EPS ex. EPS y/y % Charges Litigation 10.4% S&P 500 180.4 194.3 184.9 161.8 721.4 166.7 182.9 165.5 54.9 570.0 110.5 133.5 145.6 146.8 536.5 178.2 194.8 199.2 204.5 776.7 17.2% 213.0 12.5% 219.3 14.3% 230.1 8.6% 9.1% 5.0% 1.8% 5.6% 3.3% 5.9% 7.2% 8.9% 3.7% 9.6% 8.3% 5.1% 1.3% y/y % EFTA01476443

S&P 500 Quarterly Pro-forma Net Income ($ bn) Non-financials Financials Y/Y % 12.0% 11.7% 3.9% -8.5% -7.6% -5.9% -10.5% -66.1% -33.7% -27.0% -12.0% 167.4% 61.2% 45.9% 36.8% 39.3% 222.0 884.4 230.6 233.0 234.1 235.8 933.5 239.8 245.5 245.1 256.4 986.8 248.3 265.1 268.5 269.6 1051.5 252.3 -0.7% 265.3 -2.6% 264.8 -1.8% 278.0 1060.4 1114.9 19.6% 12.6% 15.5% 8.5% 8.2% 6.2% 1.7% 6.2% EFTA01476444

4.0% 5.3% 4.7% 8.7% 3.5% 8.0% 9.6% 4.7% 2.8% 1.2% -0.7% -0.6% 47.2 48.9 39.9 8.4 144.4 18.8 22.8 5.0 -66.7 -20.1 8.1 21.5 17.1 3.5 50.3 31.9 31.1 33.6 32.2 128.7 36.5 25.7 34.3 34.0 130.5 42.4 39.7 41.9 39.2 163.1 47.8 51.4 41.6 48.9 189.6 47.7 47.7 48.2 46.5 EFTA01476445

190.0 54.5 55.1 52.0 58.0 219.5 230.0 Y/Y % 14% 12% -7% -81% -60% -53% -88% NM -57% -6% 244% NM 295% 44% 96% 812% 15% -17% 2% 6% 16.2% 54.5% 22.2% 15.2% 12.8% 29.5% -0.9% 24.7% -0.3% -7.1% 15.9% -4.9% 14.3% 15.5% 7.9% 24.8% 133.1 145.4 145.0 153.4 576.9 147.9 160.1 EFTA01476446

160.5 121.7 590.1 102.5 112.0 128.5 143.3 486.2 146.3 163.7 165.7 172.3 647.9 176.5 193.6 195.8 187.9 753.9 188.2 193.3 192.2 196.6 770.4 192.0 194.1 203.5 207.6 797.2 200.7 217.4 220.3 223.2 861.5 197.8 210.3 212.8 220.0 840.9 884.9 Y/Y % 11% 12% 7% 17% 11% 10% 11% -21% -31% -30% -20% EFTA01476447

18% 43% 46% 29% 20% 21% 18% 18% 9% 6.6% -0.2% -1.8% 4.6% 2.0% 0.4% 5.9% 5.6% 4.5% 12.0% 8.3% 7.5% -1.4% -3.3% -3.4% -1.4% Page 32 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. EFTA01476448

US Equity Insights 20 November 2015 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc Page 33 Strategy Flashcard Strategy Flashcard S&P 500 to reach 2250-2300 by 2016 end on a long expansionary cycle of moderate growth Reasons to still buy stocks: 2015 end target: 2050-2100 EPS PE on yearend S&P targets DPS EPS/DPS growth Market strategy and tactics: Lower S&P returns than history likely, but still decent and few alternatives - stay involved, buy on dips Consider lesson of 2014: Interest rates stayed very low despite better growth and tighter labor market Next 5%+ move is likely: Balanced Risk Thematic and sector strategy: Tilt toward: 1) Secular Growth Sectors - industries with strong sales growth in the middle of economic cycles 2) Sales Growth near 5% - industries not dependent on margin expansion to drive 5%+ EPS growth 3) High ROE or long competitive advantage - ability to defend ROE/margins amidst low interest rates 4) Dividend Growth - stocks with ability to significantly raise dividend payout ratios 5) Debt Capacity - companies that can issue cheap debt for acquisitions and share buybacks Tilt away from: 1) Consumer companies w/tired brands or facing tough competition (seek unique products/experiences) 2) Smaller cap cyclical plays which are still expensive, prefer big-cap banks and select retailers 3) Commodity and industrial capital goods producers, prefer Transports Risk of near-term correction: Moderate "S&P PE stands on the shoulders of bonds 2014A $118 17.4 $38 2015E $119 17.4 $41 2016 end target: 2250-2300 2016E EFTA01476449

$125 18.2 $44 6%/6% 1%/7% 5%/7% Quarterly EPS 1Q14A 2Q14A 3Q14A 4Q14A $28.00 $29.75 $30.00 $30.25 Div Yld: 2% 1Q15A 2Q15A 3Q15E 4Q15E $28.60 $30.10 $30.00 $30.25 1) -2.25% US GDP likely in 2015 2) S&P EPS will rise despite $/oil 3) PEs justifiable and been higher 4) Bond yields are nil after inflation Dare to ask: Why not 2500+ S&P cycle-high? 2500+ = —18x 2018E EPS of -$145 S&P 500 avg. trailing 4qtr PE: 1960-2014 1985-2014 1995-2014 2005-2014 16.0 17.6 18.6 15.9 Sectors/Industries: Health Care, Tech Health Care, Tech, Consumer Disc. Tech, Health Care, some Consumer Big Banks, Mega-cap Tech Tech, Health Care, some Consumer Staples Be selective and valuation mindful Energy, Industrial Capital Goods Risks - US tax on foreign profits, whether repatriated or not, threatens large multinationals and would cause margin contraction - EM economy weakness that causes a steep decline in commodity prices, EFTA01476450

especially oil, and threatens US exports and investment spending - A surge in long-term interest rates or any global economic shock would threaten our constructive view on the S&P for 2015 EFTA01476451

US Equity Insights 20 November 2015 Page 34 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. EPS outlook, Performance & What to buy now Figure 63: The Seven Signs (cross asset class market signals) suggest Cautious / Neutral stance on equities Current Change vs Change vs "The Seven Signs" Cross Asset Class Market Signals Interest Rates and Inflation 10yr Treasury yield 10yr TIPS yield 10yr Treasury - TIPS spread 5yr Treasury yield 30yr Treasury yield Fed Fund Rate 2015 End (Futures) Fed Fund Rate 2016 End (Futures) Duration US Treasury yield curve slope (10-2yr) US Treasury yield curve slope (10-5yr) Credit Corporate IG credit spreads (bps) Financial Industrial Financial spreads over Industrial Corporate HY credit spreads (bps) TED spreads (bps) Muni spreads (bps) Sovereign spreads (bps) Germany France Italy Spain Currency US Dollar index USD/EUR JPY/USD CHF/USD USD/Gold (real $) Commodities CRB Brent Oil WTI Oil Natural gas Copper Uncertainty VIX 1M Implied Vol 1M Realized Vol 1M Vol Premium (Implied - Realized) EFTA01476452

Correlation (S&P 500) 1M Implied Correlation 1M Realized Correlation 1M Correl Premium (Implied - Realized) LTM PE / 3m Avg. VIX (mkt emotion) Offered Equity Risk Premium LTM PE PE on 2015E EPS PE on normalized 2015E EPS Implied real return offered by S&P 500 Implied ERP offered by S&P 500 14.2 14.3 -0.1 35.4 27.3 8.1 0.85 17.5 17.5 17.1 5.7% 5.1% -1.2 1.5 -2.8 -3.8 4.4 -8.2 0.01 1.7% -1.7% 0.1% 13.4 13.3 0.1 31.3 25.2 6.1 0.85 17.4 5.7% 5.1% -3.2 -5.5 2.2 -3.9 -26.3 22.4 0.01 4.7% EFTA01476453

-4.5% -6.9% 11.2 9.9 1.3 33.9 24.1 9.8 1.17 17.5 5.7% 5.2% 14.9 13.8 1.2 40.1 37.0 3.1 0.95 15.2 6.7% 6.2% 18.6 16.9 1.6 36.9 32.4 2.6 0.98 18.5 6.5% 3.6% 33% 48% 26% 51% 44% 73% 33% 63% 35% 75% 382.59 44.18 40.54 2.28 4651.5 -0.3% 0.3% -2.9% 0.7% EFTA01476454

-3.8% 389.50 46.88 43.87 2.27 4987.4 -2.5% -5.0% -5.5% -8.5% -3.9% 451.97 78.10 74.58 4.37 6755.0 481.12 98.48 87.45 3.56 7427.5 347.21 56.79 54.89 4.49 4535.7 62% 45% 43% 13% 54% 94.10 1.0734 122.87 1.0128 449.5 0.0% -0.7% 0.2% 1.3% -1.5% 92.59 1.0852 122.09 0.9985 469.4 1.4% -3.8% 1.8% 3.4% -3.2% EFTA01476455

82.80 1.2554 117.97 0.9570 502.2 77.27 1.2934 96.12 0.9254 616.7 86.57 1.2193 108.22 1.2356 350.3 71% 23% 88% 27% 69% 71% 77% 12% 73% 138.7 169.2 -30.5 637.2 25.8 19.78 -176.8 -144.8 -75.1 -54.4 -0.7 1.7 -2.4 15.8 2.6 1.0 -4.8 -4.8 -5.0 -4.2 142.1 169.0 -27.0 611.9 27.5 21.9 -165.6 EFTA01476456

-131.9 -63.1 -46.9 -13.5 -10.6 -3.0 -45.1 -5.1 -13.9 -17.8 -22.1 -25.0 -24.8 130.3 135.3 -5.0 488.7 23.1 15.5 -151.1 -116.4 -3.0 -23.2 182.7 141.8 40.9 527.7 25.6 22.1 -75.4 -16.0 171.5 182.3 174.8 156.1 18.7 609.7 43.6 2.5 -47.4 -25.3 65.4 53.2 51% 71% 23% 63% 40% 63% 0% 1% EFTA01476457

10% 21% 1.40% 0.59% -0.06% -0.02% 1.43% 0.62% 0.00% -0.07% 1.84% 0.72% 1.93% 1.03% 1.25% 0.61% 64% 75% Level 2.25% 0.65% 1.60% 1.67% 3.01% 0.21% 0.78% 1 Wk Ago 4 Week Avg. 4 Wks Ago -0.06% -0.10% 0.04% -0.04% -0.08% 0.00% -0.06% 2.22% 0.67% 1.55% 1.60% 3.00% 0.20% 0.76% 0.17% 0.11% 0.06% 0.24% 0.12% 0.01% 0.14% Level lyr Ago 2.36% EFTA01476458

0.52% 1.84% 1.64% 3.08% 0.53% 1.47% 0.21% 2.14% 1.32% 3.34% 0.25% 0.25% 4.18% 1.75% 2.43% 3.57% 4.79% 2.66% 2.66% 5yr Avg. 20yr Avg. Rel to Hist. Rel to Hist. 2.35% 4% 12% 3% 8% 4% 96% 88% 3% 92% 96% PCTL Risk Aver. Risk Aversion Incremental Level High High High Low High High High High Normal 36% Normal 25% Normal Normal 51% Normal High 71% 23% Low 63% Normal EFTA01476459

40% Normal 63% Normal 0% 1% 10% 21% Low Low Low Low High High High Low High 69% Normal Normal 38% Normal 55% Normal 57% Normal 87% High 46% Normal Normal 33% Normal 48% Normal 26% Low 51% Normal 44% Normal 73% High 67% Normal Normal 37% Normal Normal Normal 35% Normal 75% Normal Risk Aversion Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Up Up Up EFTA01476460

Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Up Up Up Down Down Down Up Up Up Up Up Up Down Down Down Up Down Down Up Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Source: FRB, Bloomberg Finance LP, I/B/E/S, Deutsche Bank A signal's risk aversion is based on its current level expressed as a percentile of all the observations in its long-term history. Monthly observations from 1960 for Interest Rates & Inflation, Duration, LTM PE and Implied ERP; 20 yr history for the rest. Not Safe No No Neutral No Safe Yes Yes Yes EFTA01476461

Yes Yes Yes Yes Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Yes below 18 below 18 below 3 below 40 below 40 below 10 0.8 - 1.2 below 18 below 17 below 17 above 5.5% above 4% $70 - $100 $70 - $100 Strategic Safety Caution Yes Caution Yes Caution Yes Yes Yes Neutral Yes Caution Neutral Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Neutral Caution $1.20 - $1.40 EFTA01476462

Safe Criteria 2 - 4% 0.5% - 2% bet. 1 - 3% 1.5% - 3% 2.5% - 4.5% below 2.5% below 2.5% above 100bps above 60bps below 200 below 200 below 50 below 600 below 50 below 25 below 0 bps below 100 bps below 100 bps below 100 bps EFTA01476463

US Equity Insights 20 November 2015 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc Page 35 Figure 64: S&P 500 Advised Sector and Industry Allocation (2014/15 PE based on DB US Equity Strategy top down sector and industry EPS estimates) Market Advised Weight (%) Weight (%) Sector 2015 2016 PE PE Biotechnology Health Care Equipment & Supplies 14.5% 18.0% Health Care 17.0 15.9 Health Care Technology Life Sciences Tools & Services Pharmaceuticals Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Internet Software & Services IT Services 21.0% Overweight 16.4% 17.2% Financials 21.0% Information Technology 17.5 16.5 Semiconductors Software Communications Equipment Electronic Equipment Banks Capital Markets 14.0 13.2 Consumer Finance Electric Utilities Gas Utilities 2.9% 2.3% 3.4% 2.6% Utilities 15.7 15.2 Independent Power Producers Multi-Utilities Telecom 12.6 13.0 Telecommunication Services Overweight EFTA01476464

2015 2016 PE PE 15.1 13.5 21.8 20.4 27.2 23.6 19.5 18.8 17.1 16.3 12.2 11.5 29.8 26.6 19.0 17.9 16.6 16.1 21.4 20.2 12.2 11.7 17.5 16.3 12.1 11.5 Diversified Financial Services 15.0 13.9 Insurance 11.7 11.2 REITs Real Estate Mgmt. & Development Thrifts & Mortgage Finance 15.0 14.7 21.2 19.8 10.8 9.8 17.1 16.5 12.6 13.0 Auto Components Automobiles Distributors Equalweight 13.0% 13.2% Consumer Discretionary 21.1 19.5 Household Durables Leisure Products Multiline Retail Specialty Retail Internet & Catalog Retail Media Food & Staples Retailing 9.6% 8.5% Consumer Staples 20.6 20.1 Airlines Underweight 10.3% 8.5% EFTA01476465

Industrials 16.8 16.5 7.3 8.3 Building Products Air Freight & Logistics Commercial Services & Supplies Industrial Conglomerates Professional Services Road & Rail Chemicals 3.0% 2.6% Materials 17.9 16.7 24.2 18.8 19.6 23.0 20.1 15.9 17.3 13.7 8.6 19.5 16.6 21.2 14.5 21.1 80.7 18.9 18.1 12.7 Diversified Consumer Services 8.2 Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 18.2 Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods 14.7 20.0 13.6 19.4 64.6 17.8 17.5 Beverages Food Products Household Products Personal Products Tobacco 22.6 Aerospace & Defense 17.6 Construction & Engineering 18.7 Electrical Equipment 21.8 Machinery EFTA01476466

18.3 Trading Companies & Distributors 15.0 16.5 Construction Materials Containers & Packaging Metals & Mining Paper & Forest Products 7.0% 5.0% Energy 28.5 Aggregate PE of DB Industry allocations S&P 500 Index Source: Deutsche Bank Markets Research 24.6 Overweight 15.6 2081.24 14.9 Equalweight 2015 & 2016 DB Strategy EPS Bottom-up Cons. EPS 18.5 17.4 Energy Equipment & Services Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Underweight 119.0 125.0 2015 & 2016 DB Strategy PE 118.8 128.5 Bottom-up Cons. PE 23.1 22.9 21.3 20.4 20.6 20.0 27.7 24.2 20.3 20.6 17.7 16.7 13.7 13.7 16.3 16.3 15.5 16.0 16.7 15.9 45.6 38.0 16.1 15.4 28.3 18.5 11.0 11.0 20.9 29.9 30.6 23.8 21.3 20.0 17.5 16.6 17.5 16.2 18.3 16.7 25.0 22.8 23.6 21.5 EFTA01476467

20.9 12.3 18.8 17.4 33.2 19.3 11.7 18.0 16.1 11.7 Equalweight 2015 2016 PE PE Underweight Health Care Providers & Services 2015 2016 PE PE 16.0 15.2 EFTA01476468

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights Figure 65: Sector and Industry ETFs Note: Please see DB note "Equity ETPs capture $4.1bn during last week" published on May 27 2015. Click here for complete report Source: Deutsche Bank Page 36 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. EFTA01476469

US Equity Insights 20 November 2015 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 37 Figure 66: S&P 500 Annual EPS Outlook and PE (based on current constituents in the index unless specified) EPS Y/Y 2005A S&P 500 EPS (historical index) S&P 500 EPS (current constituents) Sector ($ bn) Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities S&P 500 ($ bn) S&P ex. Financials ($bn) S&P ex. Energy ($bn) S&P ex. Tech ($bn) Energy & Financials ($bn) S&P ex. Energy and Financials ($bn) Key Macro Forecast Global GDP growth (real, DB est.) US GDP growth (real, DB est.) US Bus. FI (Equip + IPP, DB est.) US Unemployment Rate (year-end, DB est.) US 10yr Treasury Yield (year-end, Our est.) Bank Litigation (post-tax, $bn) Loan Loss Provisioning (% of loans, Our est.) US$/Euro (average/year-end, Our est.) US$/Euro (year-end, DB est.) Avg Oil Price (WTI/Brent, $/bbl) Avg Natural Gas Price (Henry Hub $/mmbtu) $76.28 $79.53 51.6 94.0 133.8 68.6 63.2 83.6 17.4 13.9 21.4 EFTA01476470

603.1 469.3 509.1 519.5 227.8 375.3 2006A $88.18 $91.14 53.9 57.0 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A $85.12 $65.47 $60.80 $85.28 $93.81 $71.79 $64.23 $88.54 2007 - 14 shown below is agg. net income, 2014 y/y is EPS growth: 55.6 52.5 61.1 114.3 173.1 73.0 71.0 97.6 21.2 18.0 23.4 702.6 529.4 588.3 605.0 287.5 415.1 118.7 143.8 81.8 83.9 121.4 24.8 26.4 25.9 740.2 596.5 621.6 618.8 262.4 477.8 40.9 66.8 EFTA01476471

141.5 -19.9 86.7 75.3 122.1 21.0 27.0 26.9 588.2 608.1 446.7 466.1 121.6 466.6 48.6 68.9 59.0 56.6 88.3 51.7 105.6 13.2 21.8 26.6 540.3 483.7 481.3 434.7 115.6 424.7 74.1 73.6 94.5 129.0 101.3 73.8 151.4 24.9 23.2 28.2 773.9 644.9 679.4 622.5 223.5 550.4 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A $97.82 $103.75 $110.39 $118.82 7.6% EFTA01476472

$99.73 $105.09 $111.63 $117.75 5.5% $118.84 0.9% $128.55 8.2% 84.0 78.0 129.7 132.5 109.6 88.2 175.2 31.7 22.4 29.5 880.7 748.2 751.0 705.4 262.1 618.5 90.4 78.7 122.1 162.6 112.5 94.3 185.7 29.2 23.9 29.8 929.1 766.6 807.0 743.5 284.6 644.5 99.5 84.2 113.9 189.1 117.9 102.5 193.1 30.5 25.1 30.4 986.2 797.1 872.3 793.1 303.0 683.2 102.9 86.2 $119 EFTA01476473

112.3 189.9 136.3 113.4 209.8 32.7 30.7 33.2 1047.4 857.5 935.1 837.6 302.2 745.2 4.7% 5.2% 5.3% 2.7% -0.4% 5.2% 3.9% 3.2% 2.8% 3.4% 3.4% 2.7% 1.8% -0.3% -2.8% 2.5% 1.9% 2.8% 1.9% 2.6% 8.4% 7.1% 3.8% -3.1% -14.1% 9.4% 9.2% 5.9% 4.1% -5.5% 4.9% 4.4% 5.0% 7.3% 9.9% 9.5% 8.6% 7.8% 7.0% 5.7% 4.4% 4.7% 3.9% 2.5% 3.8% 3.3% 1.9% 1.8% 3.0% 2.2% 8.9 5.7 8.4 14.3 23.3 0.8% 0.7% 1.3% 3.0% 4.2% 2.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 1.25/1.18 1.26/1.32 1.37/1.46 1.47/1.40 1.39/1.32 1.33/1.29 1.39/1.30 1.28/1.32 1.33/1.38 1.33/1.21 56/54 8.67 66/65 6.74 72/72 6.96 100/97 8.88 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities S&P 500 S&P ex. Financials S&P ex. Energy S&P ex. Tech Energy & Financials S&P ex. Energy & Financials EFTA01476474

Trailing Pro-forma PE (year-end prices) 2005 17.3 15.8 10.1 15.0 17.9 18.6 20.0 16.8 13.2 15.1 15.9 14.6 17.0 15.3 13.0 17.7 2006 20.7 16.5 10.4 13.9 17.8 18.2 18.8 15.1 15.7 16.6 15.7 14.3 16.8 15.3 12.5 18.0 2007 18.9 17.3 12.9 14.9 16.5 16.9 18.0 16.4 16.4 17.3 16.2 15.9 16.8 15.8 14.0 EFTA01476475

17.4 61/61 3.95 79/79 4.40 95/111 3.99 94/111 2.75 98/108 3.73 93/99 4.26 Bottom-up 2008 15.5 13.9 7.0 NA 11.3 10.8 10.3 10.8 11.0 11.6 12.9 13.8 14.7 13.5 17.4 11.7 2009 18.4 14.8 18.2 26.0 12.6 18.6 18.9 26.3 13.6 12.7 17.6 18.5 17.5 17.3 22.1 16.4 2010 16.6 15.2 EFTA01476476

13.5 14.5 11.4 16.5 14.4 17.8 14.2 12.3 14.4 14.9 14.5 14.4 14.0 14.6 2011 14.8 15.6 10.5 12.2 11.6 13.4 12.5 12.4 15.8 13.7 12.8 13.6 13.1 12.8 11.4 13.3 2012 16.4 16.3 11.4 12.6 13.4 14.1 13.4 15.6 16.2 14.0 13.8 14.5 14.1 13.9 12.1 14.5 2013 20.8 18.4 EFTA01476477

14.7 14.4 17.9 18.0 16.4 18.3 15.7 15.5 16.8 17.5 17.1 16.9 14.5 17.8 2014 21.4 20.4 13.3 16.2 18.7 17.4 17.8 17.5 14.2 17.8 17.5 18.3 18.0 17.5 15.1 18.5 2015 21.1 20.7 27.4 14.0 17.0 16.6 17.6 17.7 12.5 15.8 17.5 18.4 17.1 17.5 16.4 17.9 2016 18.3 19.4 EFTA01476478

27.4 12.9 15.6 15.9 16.2 15.8 12.1 15.3 16.2 17.0 15.7 16.2 15.3 16.5 Note: 2005-2013 PE based on year end prices, 2014/2015 PE based on current prices and FC and DB US Equity Strategy EPS estimates for 2014 and 2015. Dividend yield and payout is based on indicated dividend. Source: Company reports, First Call, Deutsche Bank Markets Research 3.4% 115.5 2.4% 85.1 -1.5% 46.8 0.4% 216.8 15.6% 155.0 10.7% 116.3 8.6% 224.1 7.4% 30.6 22.1% 33.7 9.2% 33.2 6.2% 1057.1 7.6% 840.3 7.2% 1010.3 5.6% 833.0 -0.3% 263.6 9.1% 793.5 -1.3% 91.0 -58.4% 46.8 14.2% 235.5 13.7% 168.9 2.6% 121.5 6.8% 243.3 -6.5% 34.3 9.8% 34.9 -0.1% 34.4 0.9% 1143.4 -2.0% 907.9 8.0% 1096.6 -0.6% 900.1 -12.8% 282.3 6.5% 861.1 15.0% 115.5 6.9% 85.5 EFTA01476479

0.1% 45.0 8.6% 218.0 9.0% 154.5 4.4% 115.0 8.6% 225.0 12.0% 30.3 3.4% 33.5 3.7% 33.5 8.2% 1055.7 8.0% 837.7 8.5% 1010.7 8.1% 830.7 7.1% 263.0 8.5% 792.7 3.1% 2.1% -4% 4.8% 2.25% 4.5 0.6% -$1.10 1.05 -$50 -2.50 1.1% $125 All 2015/16 estimates are aggregate earnings representative of EPS 12.3% 132.8 12.2% 125.0 -0.8% 87.5 -59.9% 52.0 14.8% 230.0 13.4% 165.0 1.4% 117.0 7.3% 239.0 -7.5% 32.5 9.1% 32.5 0.7% 34.5 5.0% $122 8.3% 115.5 2.3% 85.5 15.6% 80.0 5.5% 218.0 6.8% 151.5 1.7% 112.2 6.2% 225.0 7.3% 31.4 -3.0% 33.5 3.1% 33.5 1.1% 1114.9 5.0% 1086.0 -2.3% 884.9 EFTA01476480

5.6% 868.0 8.1% 1062.9 5.2% 1006.0 -0.8% 875.9 -13.0% 282.0 6.4% 832.9 5.4% 861.0 7.2% 298.0 5.1% 788.0 3.5% 2.7% -4% 4.5% 2.75% 2 0.5% -$1.05 0.90 -$55 -2.75 DB US Equity Strategy 2015 21.1 20.6 28.5 14.0 17.0 16.8 17.5 17.9 12.6 15.7 17.5 18.5 17.0 17.5 16.4 17.9 2016 19.5 20.1 24.6 13.2 15.9 16.5 16.5 16.7 13.0 15.2 16.6 17.5 16.2 EFTA01476481

16.6 15.3 17.0 <3% 0.75% $1.10-1.15 -$65 - 3.00 Indicated Dividend Yield 1.5% 2.7% 3.4% 2.0% 1.7% 2.3% 1.6% 2.2% 5.2% 3.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.3% 2.4% 2.0% 103% 100% 100% 178% 100% 98% 98% 100% 104% 100% 100% 103% 104% 100% 104% 113% 99% 2015E Y/Y Bottom-up 2016E Y/Y 2015E DB US Equity Strategy Y/Y EFTA01476482

2016E Normalized 2015 Y/Y ($) % of 2015 Payout (2015) 32.0% 56.1% 94.7% 27.9% 28.9% 37.8% 27.5% 39.6% 66.3% 61.5% 37.3% 39.7% 34.7% 39.9% EFTA01476483

US Equity Insights 20 November 2015 Page 38 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 EFTA01476484

07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 EFTA01476485

01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 EFTA01476486

07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 Figure 67: EPS revisions — The % below shows the change in 2015 consensus estimate since July end Cons. Disc. ($bn) — down 0.3% Cons. Staples ($bn) — down 1.9% 110 130 150 30 EFTA01476487

50 70 90 2010 2011 2008 2009 2016 2015 2014 2012 2013 60 70 80 90 2012 2011 2009 2010 2008 100 110 2013 2015 2016 2014 100 120 140 160 180 200 40 60 80 2008 2012 2011 2009 2010 2016 2015 Energy ($bn) — down 8.1% Financials ($bn) — down 2.3% 2013 2014 100 150 200 250 300 2008 50 EFTA01476488

0 2009 2016 2014 2015 2011 2012 2010 2013 Healthcare ($bn) — up 1.6% Industrials ($bn) — down 0.2% 100 120 140 160 180 200 80 2016 2015 2014 2012 2013 2011 2008 2009 2010 100 110 120 130 140 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2016 2015 2013 2014 2012 2011 2010 2009 50 Technology ($bn) — down 0.5% 100 150 200 250 300 EFTA01476489

2016 2013 2012 2011 2008 2009 2010 2015 2014 Materials ($bn) — down 6.0% 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 5 2016 2013 2012 2011 2008 2010 2009 2015 2014 Telecom ($bn) — up 1.3% Utilities ($bn) — up 0.2% 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 2015 2016 2014 2011 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 24 26 EFTA01476490

28 30 32 34 36 2016 2015 2014 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2010 S&P ex. Fin ($bn) — down 0.8% 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 20152016 2014 2008 2009 2013 2012 2011 2010 S&P 500 EPS ($/sh) — down 1.1% $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 2015 2009 2008 2012 2013 2014 2011 2010 2016 Source: I/B/E/S and Deutsche Bank Markets Research EFTA01476491

US Equity Insights 20 November 2015 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 39 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 EFTA01476492

07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 EFTA01476493

01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 EFTA01476494

07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 Figure 68: Sales revisions — The % below shows the change in 2015 consensus estimate since July end Cons. Disc. ($bn) — down 0.2% Cons. Staples ($bn) — down 1.4% 925 1025 1125 1225 EFTA01476495

1325 1425 1525 1625 1725 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2009 2008 2010 2011 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2008 20092010 2011 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2008 Energy ($bn) — down 5.5% Financials ($bn) — down 0.7% 2012 2013 2014 2011 2016 2015 2009 2010 900 EFTA01476496

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 2016 2015 2011 2009 2010 2008 2012 2014 2013 Healthcare ($bn) — flat Industrials ($bn) — down 1.4% 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2009 2010 2008 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 2013 2012 2011 2008 2010 2009 2016 2014 2015 Technology ($bn) — down 0.6% EFTA01476497

600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 2016 2015 2013 2014 2011 2012 2009 2008 2010 Materials ($bn) — down 3.6% 2013 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 2012 2008 2010 2011 2009 2014 2015 2016 Telecom ($bn) — down 2.0% Utilities ($bn) — down 0.7% 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 2016 2014 2015 2013 2012 2008 EFTA01476498

2009 2010 2011 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 350 360 2016 2011 2009 2008 2013 2014 2012 2010 2015 S&P ex. Fin ($bn) — down 1.4% 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 2016 2014 2015 2013 2012 2011 2008 2009 2010 S&P 500 ($bn) — down 1.3% 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 2016 2014 2015 EFTA01476499

2013 2009 2010 2008 2011 2012 Source: I/B/E/S and Deutsche Bank Markets Research Cons. Disc. 2010/11 jumped in Nov 2010 after GM was added to S&P. Cons. Staples 2013 jumped in Oct 2012 due to KRFT IPO. Health Care 2012/13 jumped after ESRX's acquisition of Medco. Telecom 2011/12 jumped due to CTL's Qwest and Savvis acquisition. EFTA01476500

US Equity Insights 20 November 2015 Page 40 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Figure 69: What to buy now (large caps)? DB Buy-rated S&P 500 stocks in our OW industries with market cap > $10bn, PE on 2015 EPS < 22, 2015 EPS growth > 0% DB Ticker Company Name BAC 3PM MTB PNC STI USB Bank of America Corp 3PMorgan Chase & Co M&T Bank Corp PNC Financial Services Group Inc SunTrust Banks Inc U.S. BANCORP WFC Wells Fargo & Co AMP Ameriprise Financial Inc BK BLK ABT MDT SYK Bank of New York Mellon Corp BlackRock Inc TROW T. Rowe Price Group Inc ABBOTT LABORATORIES Medtronic Inc Stryker Corp AGN Allergan plc ENDP Endo International PLC MYL Mylan Inc PRGO Perrigo Company PLC AAL DAL LUV UAL Southwest Airlines Co CSCO Cisco Systems Inc ADS United Continental Holdings Inc Alliance Data Systems Corp AEP EXC NEE EFTA01476501

American Airlines Group Inc Delta Air Lines Inc GICS Sector Financials Financials Financials Financials Financials Financials Financials Financials Financials Financials Financials Health Care Health Care Health Care Health Care Health Care Health Care Health Care Industrials Industrials Industrials Industrials CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp Information Technology AMAT Applied Materials Inc LRCX Lam Research Corp American Electric Power Company IncUtilities Exelon Corp NextEra Energy Inc Utilities Utilities GICS Industry Banks Banks Banks Banks Banks Banks Banks Capital Markets Capital Markets Capital Markets Capital Markets DB Rating Buy Buy Buy Buy EFTA01476502