Epstein Secrets

relative price vs 52wk average (SD) Source: Re BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg place this text Chart 6: Rapid relative de-rating for Staples — relative PE for Food & Beverage still 6-10% above 2010 / 2014 levels 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 =———PE-relative FOOD & BEV 110 eee German

ex/depreciation - 2yma pushed 2y fwd (RS, %) Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Datastream, IBES Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Factset Margin upside, capex discipline and FX tailwind provide additional support. Third, profit margins in Europe are not elevated: in the bottom third of

. deduct.-recur.impact -3.50 -5.00 -6.00 Recurring impact 7.00 1.50 -3.50 One-time repat. tax 8.50 -8.50 Source: BofAML US Equity & Quant Strategy, FactSet, Compustat, S&P “Assumes end to interest deductibility only applies to new debt, where we estimate 70-90% of debt is long-term. Note: For this exhib

ctor Est. cash Overseas cash Effective tax Net % imported vs Sector overseas ($bn) = % mkt cap rate LTM exported COGS Discretionary 15 2.9% 28% -14% Staples 68 3.2% 29% -13% Energy 39 26% 21% -3% Health Care 187 10% 23% A% Industrials 127 6.0% 26% 1% Technology 647 14.9% 20% -9% Materials 24 40% 23% 3% Te

ons Tactical (6 months) e¢ We have adopted a neutral allocation between defensive and cyclical sectors. e Among defensives, we still like Consumer Staples, while IT is a preferred cyclical sectors. We also like Energy. e We are cautious on Materials, where we expect margin pressure to continue, as well

et revisions, in %; MSCI Europe) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% Jun.05 Jun.06 Jun.07 Jun.0&8 Jun.09 Jun.10 Jun.11 Jun.12 Source: FactSet, UBS CIO, as of 27 June 2012 Note: Past performance is no indication for future returns. 21 Please see important disclaimer and disclosures at the