Epstein Secrets

ae ee ee ae fre ne ee eee ee ee eee C7) 5 Oo ¢ a D 10% fn ° Le 0% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Note: *Oil exporters include Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, lraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria. KP Source: Dept. of

ercent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We note that while Reinhart and Rogoff’s observations are based on ‘gross debt’ data, in the U.S., debt held by the public is closer to the European countries’ definition of government gro

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cent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. . We note that while Reinhart and Rogoff's observations are based on ‘gross debt’ data, in the U.S., debt held by the public is closer to the European countries’ definition of government gr

ment Strategy Group, Datastream, Global Financial Data. * We define “severe” recessions according to those identified by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in “Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes” (2014), as well as the 1937 recession (a continuation of the 1929 recession) and the

hina, South Africa and Brazil—have negative outlooks from at least two rating agencies, raising the potential for downgrades.! A potential default by Venezuela and its national oil company could also sour sentiment, as could unfavorable tariffs or trade restrictions from the new US administration. Finally, t

Meeting 12 m November 2016 Agreed Cut 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 ran raq Libya UAE Total Algeria Angola Ecuador Kuwait Nigeria Qatar Saudi Venezuela Data as of November 30, 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, OPEC. Exhibit 97: US Energy Sector Ratio of Capital Spending (Capex) to