Integrated Oils Table Of Contents Executive Summary 3 The Non-OPEC growth outlook to 2017 8 Looking for rapid declines? Don't hold your breath Non-OPEC growth: Late to the party 8 Where is the growth coming from? 10 Capex Reductions 15 Show me the money (or lack thereof) 15 Setting the stage

. ixialiamaat ions.lainwe pojr0 But. there is a call on US onshore oil growth - the new swing producer Although we don't expect a rapid decline in Non-OPEC production, stronger than expected global crude demand will still result in a call on US onshore production growth, although not likely until 2H 20

l crude production (ex-OPEC, ex-US onshore, ex-NGLs), and the outlook for the coming 2-5 years. Key takeaways: 1) Don't expect a major roll-over in Non-OPEC supply through 2017, 2) we still see a call on US onshore growth of 500 Mb/d in 2017 with 2H16 ramp 3) we likely need $65-$70/bbl oil to incentiviz

l crude production (ex-OPEC, ex-US onshore, ex-NGLs), and the outlook for the coming 2-5 years. Key takeaways: 1) Don't expect a major roll-over in Non-OPEC supply through 2017, 2) we still see a call on US onshore growth of 500 Mb/d in 2017 with 2H16 ramp 3) we likely need $65-$70/bbl oil to incentiviz

017, we estimate annual, major project-driven growth barrels of 1380 Mb/d, vs. the historical rate of 970 Mb/d between 2004- 2013, supporting annual Non-OPEC supply growth of 500 Mb/d through 2017. Leading drivers: US GoM, Brazil, Canada, and slower declines on recent redevelopment projects in the North

risk to the current supply outlook and decline rates may eventually tick higher, the reality is that those looking for a rapid negative response in Non-OPEC production are likely to be disappointed. The reason? 1) Despite frequent jokes to the contrary, 4+ years of -$100/bbl crude generated significant

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Figure 15: Brazil and Canada: Exclude them and Non-OPEC crude production is down -1500 MMIard horn 2014-2020. include them and production is up 400 Mbid 43000 38000 r , 1 . 1 r________, 23000 180

cted to be relatively flat through 2020. Figure 13: ,_014-20 I 7 Cumulative Growth (Mbid) Figure 14 2014.2020 Cumulative Growth (Mbrkt Mexico MI Non-OPEC Mickile East Colombia ■ North Sea • Alaska r Caspian Sea India Europe Non-OECD Other Non-OECD Asia Angola Other FSU Australia Other Non

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Figure 22: While the current Non-OPEC production mix is .-V3 medium Extra Light Li 1% ght 15% Extra Heavy 1% Heavy 17% Medium 66% Sower Punch, eat 1410o0PAaalerum IRA Han/ b

fe (ex US. Canada) Sane Detach* M. Vitat Irnoine •Shallow •OW IlUDW •Canada Offshore. Oil Sands s LNG There are clearly risks to this outlook, as Non-OPEC supply has historically disappointed (see figure below), but there is no avoiding the fact that the outlook for Non-OPEC supply is more robust than

d Crude Inventory Builds A 4# San', dissent Se* ?EA I \ ,--\, i \ 7 \ 1 41141° +f "lied' ft' a it ---,, - \,, 1 ‘ ! ‘ i' i \ .., Y Non-OPEC Supply Disappointment There are clearly risks to this outlook, as Non-OPEC supply has historically disappointed (see figure below), but there is no

wa .0+ Marva and urokotes US Ortillat erci OPEC greacoon Asa Wen, Meals Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Figure 62: A +1/4 0,10 revision to modeled Non-OPEC decline rates increases implied onshore crude growth by -150 mbpd in 2017 over our base case -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% San Doan Ora Moe naliont 114