31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Other Risks to the Outlook Global oil demand and Decline Rates Our base case assumes global product demand growth of 1.2 Mb/d in 2016 and 2017. To date in 2015, demand has generally surprised to the upside, with gasoline demand growth in the US (+2% YoY) stronger than anticipated, while Europe and Asia have also shown surprisingly robust growth. 10%+ incremental upside to YoY product demand growth results in a -+100 mbpd increase in the 2017 implied call on US onshore crude growth. On decline rates, we assume an average global decline rate of 1/4%/yr. We estimate a swing of 150 mbpd in the 2017 implied call on US onshore crude growth call for each 1/4% change in modeled decline rates (ex-US onshore and OPEC and compounded from 2015+). 'Figure 59: 2017 Call on US Crude Onshore Growth (YoY) 'Figure 60: 2020 Call on US Crude Onshore Growth (YciY) 9C0 I 8 ° ) € 003 SOO b 0)) g 303 XO 6 WO 0 I SW ease edl .1a14. Re I* Mold al One Odes • 10%M to VW* Clean Groan Sean* DancIft ant, nod Mann /£4 Yol'Ona nand a th. be:~ 2017 W col LIS °Wry fradctob, - Db 2026 US Onshom pool-crib, Resnt sand aon eau ca. t ippon se Me /news wont,* waScollymaleiedour eh (*Snow enlaratocks US *IMO. re OPEC teo0a6k0 adiele two Moab I O ICOO 000 0:0 0 I 600 enr In* eP • In RI*b MOSI010 OW.* Ras *IS% Arn lo YoY Orin Goal San Dena fin nanneeola a E9 Ita Cant n CMJMa //wawa* 2020 CAI we US Onion notaion - 2019 C Oca LAS Onn Froesten &vont, Permed Sanitises envenom co Mon wan we Ain spnon mono at an.. riga and exclas US eviler at oni OPEC loads» *a can itrodo Figure 61: A +5% premium to '17 demand growth increases implied onshore crude growth by -50 mbpd • • • • -10% 10% 30% San Dane. Sy* Moe AM0lonse. IEI E614 Y0Y Crown Is calcubred Se Ivied 2077 W on us Gigot Ottascrico - Dee 202605 Galva ttootakn Rotates romccitst0 *ova raw one iraelos So $0 ropers wo Ma sprokary ~en wa .0+ Marva and urokotes US Ortillat erci OPEC greacoon Asa Wen, Meals Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Figure 62: A +1/4 0,10 revision to modeled Non-OPEC decline rates increases implied onshore crude growth by -150 mbpd in 2017 over our base case -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% San Doan Ora Moe naliont 114 E(A. VOY Grow", d cabAr40 as me v‘amPo 2017 Can al US Onshore Frofurnon- Dee 2016 US Ortnartprectcotee nee romarce0 Oak,. roes on nom to mon Aqaba St ha* weal05* inn/ at 01 a no an send US ant* Oro OPEC IYOPACIXO 411041 &Yen *WO Page 3/ CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058888 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205072 EFTA01367355