1.6 1.0 0.7 Pace & magnitude of supply response Other non.OPEC 44.4 44.8 45.1 45.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 Risk of delays, disruption & capes cuts Non-OPEC Supply 54.0 50.6 57.8 688 IS 1.3 1.3 OPEC Nair 6.3 8.4 117 68 0.1 0.3 0.1 Libya 0.9 OA 0.7 0.7 0.9 -0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 Is thew furthe

EC supply), there is clearly a robust slate of projects on the horizon. Figure 1: Since 2004, higher contributions from major projects have driven Non-OPEC Supply growth 2000 1500 1000 500 0 ---- 000 1528 1134 TIP L Is 400 400100014M IMO - 1203 WO a12001441 sms Grow, Bet CaltrtOlon .vallorOPEC 4

ining at an elevated 1275 Mb/d per year through the rest of the decade. Figure 9: Since 2004, higher contributions from major projects have driven Non-OPEC Supply growth 2000 1500 1030 0 -500 TIP 1100-10:0 1.0t1 1000 • 1200 MM 1525 >1X0 MM1 •My Poe. Obi Ccneltution .0/0 000PEC 500 0000 (1010 Sant D

pointed (see figure below), but there is no avoiding the fact that the outlook for Non-OPEC supply is more robust than usual. I Figure 12: However, Non-OPEC Supply has often disappointed (lEA Non- OPEC supply projection revisions) rn 1.0 0.8 a 0.6 (1, ^ 0 o OA t 0.2 1.2 E 0.0 c • (0.2) (0.4) 8. •