estment Residential investment Net Exports Real GDP (q/q annualized) mi Consumption mi Capital expenditures @ Inventories li Government Source: Thomsen Datastream, UBS CIO, as of 20 June 2012 US fiscal cliff at year-end 2012 Fiscal effects of change in provisions under current law, USD billion annualized 1Q1

te investment Residential investment Net Exports Real GDP (q/q annualized) li Consumption mi Capital expenditures @ Inventories Government Source: Thomsen Datastream, UBS, as of 15 October 2012 Budget impact of US fiscal cliff in 2013 Cumulative budget effects of fiscal cliff components, in % of UBS estimate of