u of Labor Statistics BOE: Bank of England BOJ: Bank of Japan CAGR: compound annual growth rate CDS: credit de

e appreciation of the yen, once again pushing the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ’s) 2% inflation target further into the futu

75 70 65 60 55 50 1/1/2010 5/1/2011 8/4/2012 = 1/1/2014) 5/1/2015 = 9/1/2016 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research true against the JPY given the Bank of Japan is pegging 10y JGB yields at zero. We are cognizant of the possibility that the willingness of Japanese investors — who have already bought record am

last week’s biggest losers were Korea’s KOSPI and India’s NIFTY, which each returned -0.8% week-over-week. In Japan, the Nikkei fell 0.3%. On Friday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its monetary policy unchanged—it will continue to control the yield curve via its negative benchmark rate and its asset purchasing program

should profit in the medium term. e Longer-term debt issues and weak competitiveness of major exporters are hurting the Japanese economy. Therefore the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance will maintain an expansive policy and continue to try weaken the JPY. However, current positive growth dynamics are supportiv

Foreign Exchange We remain underweight the Japanese yen. The Japanese economy continues to weaken against its peers, leading to rising pressure for the Bank of Japan to engage in further quantitative easing. We have closed our preference for the Canadian dollar following its recent strength, and therefore close ou

lar to QE itself. Beyond that, this is another small step towards perceptions that monetary policy is no longer independent from fiscal policy, like the Bank of Japan’s joint statement with two government ministers last month. Nobody knows the tipping point at which these perceptions feed into much higher inflation e

believe inflation comes after growth and therefore isn't a threat to this cycle of easy monetary policy. We expect the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan will continue to promote "easy money." There is going to be an inflation shock that will come with accelerating growth-we just don't see it next year

uities could go nowhere for years to come. Fixed Income • Yesterday was a study in central bank contrasts, with the ECB sitting on its hands, while the Bank of Japan launched the most aggressive easing at a single meeting by any G-4 central bank. The BoJ surprise came in both the size of its programme — it will

shift back to stock specific fundamentals with earnings season underway. Bank of Korea unexpectedly cut rates for the first time since 2009, while the Bank of Japan boosted its asset-purchase program by Y5 trillion but cut its loan facility by the same amount. And Brazil cuts rates for the 8th consecutive time

's "no new model to replace it." Domestic demand will prove an inadequate substitute. Central banks (the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan) have tried to fill the void with hyper-easy money policies. Smick fears damaging outcomes: currency wars as countries strive to capture greater sh

than trend shifts. • Last week, we raised our USD/JPY forecasts from a 2013 range of 75.85 to a range of 80-90. We have always been sceptical that the Bank of Japan would be able to drive up Japanese inflation and drive down real yields versus the US to power USD/JPY higher throughout 2013, but there is no deny

d 1.9% in CY16 (Chart 13). One explanation is that private consumption is simply being underestimated in demand- side GDP statistics: researchers at the Bank of Japan recently produced experimental supply-side estimates of GDP that were significantly higher than existing expenditure- side statistics. We find the Bo

e maintaining our recommen- dation to underweight the Japanese yen. The Japanese economy continues to weaken against its peers, raising pressure on the Bank of Japan to engage in further quan- titative easing. We have also closed our preference for the Canadian dollar, which is less attractively valued after sol