oil prices is not currently high enough to alter our base-case view. Indeed, even with the recent cut in oil production coordinated between OPEC and non-OPEC members, the size of today’s oil-supply glut and the historical tendency for producers to exceed their quotas greatly reduce the risk of a price spik

on and Republican sweep of Congress on November 9th. Later that same month, OPEC reached a historic deal to reduce crude production by 1.2mn b/d with non-OPEC producers delivering an additional 600k b/d of cuts — the first such joint curb since 1998. Risk assets responded with 30-year Treasury reaching a yi

lutense University of Madrid. Key topics of discussion: 1 — OPEC / Saudi Policy - OPEC agreed to cut production by 1.2mb/d, along with 600kb/d from non-OPEC producers. Francisco believes Saudi’s key objective will be to push the oil forward curve into backwardation to 1)lower global refinery margins 2) l

wth means growth in the OECD plus the six largest non-OECD members. LILI anticipates the CLI by four months,

Iraq: 0.8 mn b/d; other OPEC crude: 1.7 mn b/d; 0.4 mn b/d OPEC NGLs. Non-OPEC production will not reach 2015 levels before 2020 at the earliest... Non-OPEC producers have massively reduced capex spending, down US$290bn or 42% from 2014 to 2016, in response to the low price environment. Should capex start

oun- tries (including the United States) and five non-OECD member countries (Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, the

able to take us from this stage in less than 8 months. The work of a very great effort has been done in the oil agreement with the OPEC countries and non-OPEC countries is an agreement for the first time in history. We have always known in the past that the agreements were held between the OPEC countries on

the developed world has been falling, followed by non-OECD countries (see first chart). This is not meant to