Epstein Secrets

minic Konstam Francis Yared Oleg Melentyev Jim Reid David Bianco Sebastian Raedler Alan Ruskin Ge

800 1000 1200 0 2011 2012 2013 Base case 2014 2015E 2016E Risk case Note: *Mkt cap weighted BHPB, Rio, Barrick, Freeport, Alcoa, Norilsk, Alcoa, Glencore, Southern Copper, Anglo American and Vale Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Company reports, Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloomberg Fi

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 2011 2012 2013 Base case 2014 2015E 2016E Risk case Note: *Mkt cap weighted BHPB, Rio, Barrick, Freeport, Alcoa, Norilsk, Alcoa, Glencore, Southern Copper, Anglo American and Vale Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Company reports, Source: Deutsche Bank Resear

company. The CFO Richard Palmer and Mike Manley/Reid Bigland who run FCA U.S. could definitely manag

egment. Arconic. has a 10% EBITDA margin lag relative to PCP. which features a similar product catalogue) 2) Misunderstanding of quality nature of Alcoa's core businesses 3 ) Aluminum market may remain oversupplied. but alumina should be supportive (China will likely replace its high cost smelters.

offman President, CNBC NBC Universal Inc. USA Reid Hoffman Executive Chairman and Founder Linkedln

or and Political Commentator Vice-President, Intel Capital and Managing Director Senior Editor-at-Large President Group Chief Financial Officer. Alcoa Global Rolled Products Chairman of the Board and Managing Officer Chief Executive Officer Chief Executive Officer Executive Chairman Albert L.

te cycle than the US and due to valuations. Jim Reid, (44) 20 754 72943 Nick Burns, (44) 20 754 71970

s taken the industry lead in the base metals, with cuts of 500kt in mined zinc (c.3.5% of the market) and copper (c.2% of the market). In aluminium Alcoa announced cuts of 500kt (1% of global supply), but we think more cuts from China is needed to be truly effective. More recently, Chinese smelters