Epstein Secrets

perspective and then owning outright thereafter. And =iven how you and Jeffrey have more flexibility (you don't answer to =utside investors), since Le Pen seems a low risk, you might be willing =o be more aggressive. Investors are underweight Europe overall and =ithin Europe, underweight European bank

folio we are long SX7E + EURUSD for higher EUR Rates so thought an =pdate necessary 4 points we would make - 5 EFTA_R1_01899703 EFTA02655032 1. Ralf Preusser =akes the point that this is a further indication of the rift between =he hawks and doves and therefore makes June a more heated meeting.. in =tself

urope, especially France and Germany. Because of the winner takes all system in France we find investors are more concerned with the situation there. Marine Le Pen and the Front National look likely to make it to the second round of voting (again according to polls) and until the vote comes in we suspect investo

to the second round of voting (again according to polls) and until the vote comes in we suspect investors will be cautious about European markets. A Le Pen victory could likely bring the future of the EU and the Euro into question as she has talked about France withdrawing from both. That in turn has arg

t EUR/JPY Athanasios Vamvakidis | 21/01/20 30/09/2016 Short EUR/USD Athanasios Vamvakidis | 08/07/20 04/11/2016 Short EUR 5Y5Y inflation breakevens Ralf Preusser 22/01/20 23/01/2016 Buy 30y real rates (bp) Ralf Preusser 22/01/20 24/05/2016 Receive EUR pay US 5y5y fwd (bp) Ralf Preusser 22/01/20 27/05/2016 F

rate cut. The risk to this view is if tail risk scenarios unfold in European politics, such as an early election in Italy with Five Star winning, or Le Pen wining the second round in the French elections. Although we expect markets to be more concerned about European politics following the US elections,

ut it earlier if Renzi loses the referendum. The 2017 French election is another concern. President of the far-right party and presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is ahead in the polls to win the first round. Winning the second round is much more difficult, as she will need more than 50% of the votes, but inves

of America “2 Global Rates, FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016 27 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014757 --- PAGE BREAK --- Best Vol Trades Ralf Preusser, CFA Herve Belmas MLI (UK) MLPF&S ralf [email protected] [email protected] Sphia Salim Christopher Xiao MLI (UK) MLPF&S [email protected]