Epstein Secrets

isis highs. % 700 639 600 500 + 400 300 + 1951 1959 1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 Data through 03 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Datastream. The anemic (but steady) pace of this recovery has fueled a debate about its causes. The theories fall into six categories: e A “hangover” from the

” Second, to what extent will the rise of populism influence policies in the Eurozone? Here, Germany will probably provide a litmus test. Chancellor Angela Merkel and her coalition government are likely to respond to recent terrorist attacks there by proposing a stronger police and military presence, according

rorist suspects have already been arrested among them.°* With German elections scheduled for September 2017, it remains to be seen whether Chancellor Merkel will adjust her immigration policy. 28 | Goldman Sachs | JANUARY 2017 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014561 --- PAGE BREAK --- While populism is on the rise and

for September 2017, it remains to be seen whether Chancellor Merkel will adjust her immigration policy. 28 | Goldman

n politics. Will Europe follow the route to populism (revolt from the voters) or will we find relief for the markets by the end of 2017 from a Fillon/Merkel duo being in charge of the Euro area’s two largest economies. We think investors will demand a higher risk premium until the French Elections in May

0 066 = G/99—s—«<OG/O2—sC«OG/OS.s«OG/OS=—OG/11 (06/14 06/96 8606/99) (OG/02—sCO6/NSsC«G/OSS(G/11 S(O /14 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Datastream, MSCI, IBES Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Datastream, MSC The other metric that illustrates the valuation overhang in Europe is the ri

est political risk event for European (and possibly global) equity markets in 2017. By 22 October 2017: German Federal elections Current Chancellor Angela Merkel has announced that she intends to stand for re- election. Current polls have Merkel’s CDU ahead followed by SDP with the euro- sceptic Alternative fu

ancial markets. Our central case is that centre right President is elected in France (with Francois Fillon now the official Republican candidate) and Merkel is returned at the head of a coalition government in Germany. Chart 19: German polls show a consistent lead for Merkel’s CDU party Chart 20: Fillon

tedtt yield 12/80 12/84 12/88 12/92 12/96 12/00 12/04 12/08 12/12 200 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, MSCI, Datastream Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Datastream European Yield Screen The rising rates backdrop has left yield not quite as scar