Epstein Secrets

ng India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka EFTA01476183 Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezuela G7 Advanced economies EM economies Global 2015F 2.4 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.7 3.2 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.1 -0.1

800 1000 1200 0 2011 2012 2013 Base case 2014 2015E 2016E Risk case Note: *Mkt cap weighted BHPB, Rio, Barrick, Freeport, Alcoa, Norilsk, Alcoa, Glencore, Southern Copper, Anglo American and Vale Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Company reports, Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloomberg Fi

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 2011 2012 2013 Base case 2014 2015E 2016E Risk case Note: *Mkt cap weighted BHPB, Rio, Barrick, Freeport, Alcoa, Norilsk, Alcoa, Glencore, Southern Copper, Anglo American and Vale Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Company reports, Source: Deutsche Bank Resear

ood Group USA United Kingdom Canada USA Switzerland Turkey Greece Finland Morocco USA Canada United Kingdom USA France United Kingdom Chile USA Russian Federation Italy United Kingdom Kuwait Kuwait United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates Switzerland Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

or and Political Commentator Vice-President, Intel Capital and Managing Director Senior Editor-at-Large President Group Chief Financial Officer. Alcoa Global Rolled Products Chairman of the Board and Managing Officer Chief Executive Officer Chief Executive Officer Executive Chairman Albert L.

A Indonesia USA Malaysia United Kingdom Japan Nigeria Kuwait Nigeria Greece Canada Denmark United Kingdom Spain France United Kingdom Chile Russian Federation Italy United Arab Emirates Kuwait Kuwait United Arab Emirates Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting EFTA_R1_021

and Chief Executive Officer Director Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Permanent Representative of Latvia Executive Vice-President, Alcoa, and Group President, Engineered Products and Solutions Professor Acting Chief Executive Officer Founder and Executive Director Chief Executive

are expected to remain weak through much of 2016. Changes to commodity prices in the last three years have greatly harmed countries like Venezuela, Chile, Colombia and Peru, with accumulated income loses since 2012 of 8.0% of GDP, 4.5%, 4.0%, and 2.3%, respectively. Weaker economies have also exace

s taken the industry lead in the base metals, with cuts of 500kt in mined zinc (c.3.5% of the market) and copper (c.2% of the market). In aluminium Alcoa announced cuts of 500kt (1% of global supply), but we think more cuts from China is needed to be truly effective. More recently, Chinese smelters