Epstein Secrets

Koruna/US$ (Fwd. Rates) Forint/US$ (Fwd. Rates) Latin America Spot Currency Rate Argentina ARS/USD 5.04 5.18 5.50 6.10 (Fwd. Rates) Brazil Chile 4.63 4.87 5.33 BRL/USD 1.98 1.95 2.00 2.05 (Fwd. Rates) CLP/USD 473 476 490 505 (Fwd. Rates) 480 485 495 Colombia COP/USD 1,814 1,770 1,750 1,

igure 1: The basic balance has turned positive... Figure 2: ...as current account surplus outweigh the net FDI outflows Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Figure 3: EUR/USD strongly correlated (0.88) with bilateral basic balance with the US Figure 4: Bilateral bas

are expected to remain weak through much of 2016. Changes to commodity prices in the last three years have greatly harmed countries like Venezuela, Chile, Colombia and Peru, with accumulated income loses since 2012 of 8.0% of GDP, 4.5%, 4.0%, and 2.3%, respectively. Weaker economies have also exace

long term real rates Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg EFTA01476084 Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Eurostat, BEA, CAO Similarly, the output gap has mirrored the dynamics of credit, as the unemployment rate peaked mid-2013 in the euro area vs. late 2009 i

k Republic 27 Mexico Portugal 27 Mexico Italy 28 Spain 28 Spain 29 Italy 29 Luxembourg 30 Greece 30 Greece 34 Israel 31 Israel 32 Turkey 32 Turkey 33 Chile 33 Chile 34 Mexico 34 Mexico KP Note: *USA ranking out of OECD countries in PISA (Program for international Student Assessment for 15-Year Olds). Sou

ll public sector employees e Reduce state payroll via attrition e 50% bonus tax on top bank executives e Privatize state-owned industries Source: Eurostat, European Commission, IMF, New York Times, Financial Times, BBC, Wall Street Journal. USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 426 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_02105

e 2% proportionate to index weights 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 — 2% —<0% 4 0.5 1 1.5 2 Source: Eurostat, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Source: Eurostat, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Core inflation at 0.8% is barely above the 2015 low of 0.6%

f a disorderly depreciation, as it has been already the case in the last few days with small interventions in the forward market. On the other hand, Chile’s growth remains anemic and the economy is expected to continue growing sub 2% in 2017 (Chart 71). The CLP is overvalued but recent flows Chart 70: