Epstein Secrets

n. Further exchange rate depreciation is expected to help through the ongoing adjustment process, but some large countries like Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, and Peru do need to see a bigger correction in their current account deficits. Weaker currencies and depressed economic activity will create a gro

long term real rates Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg EFTA01476084 Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Eurostat, BEA, CAO Similarly, the output gap has mirrored the dynamics of credit, as the unemployment rate peaked mid-2013 in the euro area vs. late 2009 i

(Fwd. Rates) Hungary EUR/HUF Latin America Currency Argentina USD/ARS (Fwd. Rates) Brazil USD/BRL (Fwd. Rates) Chile USD/CLP (Fwd. Rates) Colombia USD/COP (Fwd. Rates) Spot 3M 6M 12M 5.49 5.60 5.98 6.62 - 4.63 4.87 5.33 2.26 2.12 2.15 2.17 - 2.31 2.35 2.44 509 505 502 500 - 516 521 531

gure 35: The basic balance remains in an uptrend... Figure 36: ...as current account surplus outweighs the FDI outflows Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Source: DB FX Research and Eurostat Page 30 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc EFTA01464361 30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Fina

nge YIY As%of 2009 Budget World Surplus / Total Deficit ($B) As % of World Gross Unemploy- Deficit 2009 ment Rate YIY (pps) Tunisia Ethiopia Colombia Cyprus Poland Spain Kenya Norway Ghana Bolivia Sweden Brazil Switzerland Latvia Malawi Malaysia Denmark Gabon Finland Turkey Czech Republic Slovenia

ll public sector employees e Reduce state payroll via attrition e 50% bonus tax on top bank executives e Privatize state-owned industries Source: Eurostat, European Commission, IMF, New York Times, Financial Times, BBC, Wall Street Journal. USA Inc. | Consequences of Inaction 426 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_02105

rish (not foolish) For the year ahead, we recommend being bearish 5y US rates, long USDJPY and short a basket of LatAm long bonds (Mexico, Brazil and Colombia). ¢ But in the near term, we urge caution with the reflation trade. Short 10y US real rates offers the best risk-reward after recent moves. US rate

e 2% proportionate to index weights 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 — 2% —<0% 4 0.5 1 1.5 2 Source: Eurostat, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Source: Eurostat, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Core inflation at 0.8% is barely above the 2015 low of 0.6%