Epstein Secrets

n curve (Jan 21) and we closed Jan 19 receivers. We think there is room for some short term bull flattening in Mexico, and we keep paying ly IBR in Colombia and receive 2y Camara in Chile. We stay neutral on most LatAm FX as valuations are not attractive. We like to short MXN at current levels. Position

ore 2011 Sitcom's Is also uncorrelated to Treasury securities or the VIX Lastly, we test the correlation of bitcoin to other liquid markets such as Treasuries and the VIX and our own BofA Merrill Lynch GFSIIU. Once more, the correlation between bitcoin and both near-term and long-term Treasury bonds and b

ia Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka EFTA01476183 Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezuela G7 Advanced economies EM economies Global 2015F 2.4 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.7 3.2 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.1 -0.1 1.5 5.2

has also been historically correlated with the US current account deficit as much of it was financed by the foreign official sector, which bought Treasuries for Official Reserves. The present current account deficit points to 25% of the lOy yield, so similar (55bps) but slightly higher BRP. Credit sprea

nge YIY As%of 2009 Budget World Surplus / Total Deficit ($B) As % of World Gross Unemploy- Deficit 2009 ment Rate YIY (pps) Tunisia Ethiopia Colombia Cyprus Poland Spain Kenya Norway Ghana Bolivia Sweden Brazil Switzerland Latvia Malawi Malaysia Denmark Gabon Finland Turkey Czech Republic Slovenia

r than Treasury yields with corresponding maturities as they include incremental credit risk associated with the banks that provide swaps compared to Treasuries, which are viewed as risk-free. 2)10-year Treasury swap spread turned negative on 3/24/10, while 30-year Treasury swap spread turned negative in 10/0

rish (not foolish) For the year ahead, we recommend being bearish 5y US rates, long USDJPY and short a basket of LatAm long bonds (Mexico, Brazil and Colombia). ¢ But in the near term, we urge caution with the reflation trade. Short 10y US real rates offers the best risk-reward after recent moves. US rate

nks hold a 10% capital ratio. This plan would probably decrease the availability of leverage, and could also result in reduced demand for short-dated Treasuries in HQLA portfolios. Another risk to 30y swap spread normalization in particular would be a material increase in deficit spending as part of a fiscal