Epstein Secrets

rrency weakness, and more inclined to continue to push through rate cuts, if not regardless of FX, at least as long as FX depreciation is orderly. Hungary's NBH have made it very clear that the focus is on growth, and that inflation is taking the back-seat for now. Consequently, the NBH rate cutting

atter cumulative fportfolio lows, bn Sfr -900 -700 -500 -300 -100 100 99 inflows outflows 250bn u/weight 02 05 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP 08 11 Swiss Franc Is Last "Safe Haven" To Turn 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 0 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 Source: Deutsche Ban

1.22 7.48 7.30 7.20 7.10 - 7.51 7.54 7.61 8.45 8.20 8.10 8.00 - 8.47 8.49 8.54 Source: Datastream, Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP, DB forecasts Hungary Indonesia IDR/USD 9,686 9,950 9,900 9,850 (Fwd. Rates) Malaysia MYR/USD 3.10 3.07 3.05 3.02 (Fwd. Rates) 3.12 3.13 3.16 Philippines PHP/USD 40.

87 1.22 1.25 1.25 1.25 - 1.22 1.22 1.22 7.48 7.30 7.20 7.10 - 7.51 7.54 7.61 8.45 8.20 8.10 8.00 - 8.47 8.49 8.54 Source: Datastream, Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP, DB forecasts Hungary Indonesia IDR/USD 9,686 9,950 9,900 9,850 (Fwd. Rates) Malaysia MYR/USD 3.10 3.07 3.05 3.02 (Fwd. Rates) 3.12 3.13 3.16

76014 0.5 2.1 -1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 2.4 -0.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.3 0.3 EEMEA Poland Hungary Czech Republic Romania Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Israel Turkey South Africa GDP (% yoy) 2015F 2016F 2017F 1.0 3.4 2.7 4.5 3.7 1.9 3.

Rising means easier, falling means tighter # of standard deviations 20140101 20140618 20141203 20150520 20151104 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Bloomberg Finance LP, Haver Analytics LP Figure 7: Bottom-up fiscal stance estimates underestimating extent of fiscal easing in 2016 1.5 0.5 1 -0.5 0 -1.5 -1

nland Greece Portugal Ireland United Kingdom Denmark Norway Sweden Switzerland Canada Australia New Zealand EEMEA Czech Republic Egypt Hungary Israel Kazakhstan Nigeria Poland Romania Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Turkey Ukraine United Arab Emirates Asia (ex-Japan) China Hon

rilsk, Alcoa, Glencore, Southern Copper, Anglo American and Vale Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Company reports, Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloomberg Finance LP 2017E Glencore 1Y CDS spread Grant Sporre, (44) 20 754 58170 Michael Hsueh, (44) 20 754 78015 EFTA01476156 Page 66 Deutsche Bank AG/London D

Source: Datastream, Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP, DB forecasts Emerging Europe Currency Czech Rep. EUR/CZK (Fwd. Rates) USD/CZK (Fwd. Rates) Hungary EUR/HUF Latin America Currency Argentina USD/ARS (Fwd. Rates) Brazil USD/BRL (Fwd. Rates) Chile USD/CLP (Fwd. Rates) Colombia USD/COP (Fwd.

87 1.23 1.25 1.25 1.24 - 1.23 1.23 1.23 7.86 7.35 7.25 7.15 - 7.88 7.91 7.97 8.58 8.25 8.05 8.00 - 8.60 8.62 8.66 Source: Datastream, Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP, DB forecasts Emerging Europe Currency Czech Rep. EUR/CZK (Fwd. Rates) USD/CZK (Fwd. Rates) Hungary EUR/HUF Latin America Currency Argentin