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14.5 13.0 12.6 France 3.6 3.8 4.9 4.5 8.0 7.5 7.3 Germany 8.2 10.3 10.3 9.6 9.5 9.1 8.8 Greece 1.2 1.7 3.6 3.7 5.0 4.9 4.4 Hungary 7.3 7.4 6.5 Iceland 5.1 6.0 5.5 8.3 12.9 13.8 12.9 Ireland 4.2 7.2 10.7 10.5 9.4 8.8 7.5 Israel 10.7 8.1 6.3 Italy 2.8 3.8
80s, the thinking on taxation underwent an important shift in the context of market-oriented policy reforms enshrined in the so-called Washing- ton Consensus. The prescription was that a broad- based low tax rate model — Development Tax Model 2.0 — was the most appropriate for developing and developed co
nland Greece Portugal Ireland United Kingdom Denmark Norway Sweden Switzerland Canada Australia New Zealand EEMEA Czech Republic Egypt Hungary Israel Kazakhstan Nigeria Poland Romania Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Turkey Ukraine United Arab Emirates Asia (ex-Japan) China Hon
l GDP Growth (IMF data and forecasts) -1 0 1 2 EFTA01476160 3 4 5 6 7 % yoy 2011 forecast 2012 forecast 2013 forecast 2014 forecast Consensus 2015 forecast % yoy 2015 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Source: IMF, Deutsche Bank Research Page 67 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997
recommend outright long duration positions in US rates at present given that the sharp election-induced selloff could extend over the coming weeks. Consensus expects rising inflation Instead, we focus on contrarian views regarding the outlook for inflation, which underpinned some of short rates positionin
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014753 →ad | 16 November 2016 43 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014773 --- PAGE BREAK --- Chart 73: Fundamentals — CEE beats periphery Chart 74: Poland and Hungary wide relative to Chart 75: HUF vol lagging EUR and PLN Italy and Spain 190% 5% 12 140% ©) am "8 @ | 3% 90% ® ay 10 40% 1% -10% 0% 5 Spain France P
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014774 →Entities connected to both Hungary and Consensus

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