recommend outright long duration positions in US rates at present given that the sharp election-induced selloff could extend over the coming weeks. Consensus expects rising inflation Instead, we focus on contrarian views regarding the outlook for inflation, which underpinned some of short rates positionin

80s, the thinking on taxation underwent an important shift in the context of market-oriented policy reforms enshrined in the so-called Washing- ton Consensus. The prescription was that a broad- based low tax rate model — Development Tax Model 2.0 — was the most appropriate for developing and developed co

0.0 - 0.5 1.2 Unless othenvaa noted. all metrics ate based on Morgan Stanley ModetWare framework (please see explanabon later in Ills note) § a Consensus data is provided by Thomson Reuters Estrne: a a Morgan Stanley Research estimates Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies cove

0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Unless othenwse noted. all meek, are based on Morgan Stanley MoelelWare framework (please see explanabon later in this note). § a Consensus dela es provided by Thomson Reuters Estenales. e a Morgan Steely/ Research oslimalas Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies c

19% reduction in revenue. We note that CSX declined the most peak to trough in 2008/09 (due to its run-up ahead of the recession) followed by CP as Consensus EPS forecasts for 2009 fell 56% vs. 37% on avg. for the rest of the group. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc Page 35 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R

e. This compares to 7.3% in 3Q and double-digit growth in 3014.2015. Slow growth is likely to continue in 1H16, but we expect healthy growth in 2H. Consensus qtrly EPS y/y growth ex Energy is -1%, 2%, 7% and 13% for 2016. Figure 15: S&P ex. Energy EPS growth deteriorated in 4015. and likely won't reacce

e. This compares to 7.3% in 3Q and double-digit growth in 3014.2015. Slow growth is likely to continue in 1H16, but we expect healthy growth in 2H. Consensus qtrly EPS y/y growth ex Energy is -1%, 2%, 7% and 13% for 2016. Figure 15: S&P ex. Energy EPS growth deteriorated in 4015. and likely won't reacce

cember quarter. When comparing guidance on a like for like basis (i.e. ex the accounting change) Apple guided 4Q GM's to —38% which was in line with Consensus on reve=ues of $57B +/- $1.5B which is above Consensus, suggesting improving iPhone 55 supply. Several catalysts ahead We expect strong holiday de

S. Q1 Mar Q2 Jun Q3 Sep 6 EFTA_R1_01940073 EFTA02671126 Q4 Dec Year' P/E Ex Ex Ex 7 EFTA_R1_0 1940074 EFTA02671127 Change </=pan> Consensus estimates are f=om Thomson First Call. * Numbers may not add up due to rounding. <=p> Click here to view the full =eport: Rene=ed Interest by Larg

l GDP Growth (IMF data and forecasts) -1 0 1 2 EFTA01476160 3 4 5 6 7 % yoy 2011 forecast 2012 forecast 2013 forecast 2014 forecast Consensus 2015 forecast % yoy 2015 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Source: IMF, Deutsche Bank Research Page 67 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997