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Eye on the Market July 11, 2011 J.P.Morgan Topics: Portfolios, US corporate profits and the Twilight of the Gods in the US, Europe, China and the IEA) Here's what our U.S. Balanced portfolio l

, 5% Balanced Diversified Model Portfolio Hedge Funds, _Private equity, 6% 5% Real Estate Single Strategy 3% Hard Assets, Hedge Funds, 4% 18% Source: J.P. Morgan Private Bank, as of July 2011. These portfolios may not be suitable for all investors & are shown for illustrative purposes only PROFITS The primary (and perhaps

decade. Some of these assumptions seem aggressive to apply in perpetuity. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030808 --- PAGE BREAK --- Eye on the Market July 11, 2011 J.P.Morgan Topics: Portfolios, US corporate profits and the Twilight of the Gods in the US, Europe, China and the IEA) Hourly compensation for production worker

gn debt restructuring within the next 18 months (see chart from "Five Stages of Greece", June 30, 2011). Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer * JP Morgan's Prime Money Market Fund is indicative of industry concerns about a liquidity squeeze. The fund holds no Greece, Portugal, Ireland or Spain. Its Italy

ession derailed them, leaving Italy with the same elevated debt burden they started with 20 years ago. I believe that eventually, the constituency of the European Monetary Union will have to change. However, my colleagues in J.P. Morgan Securities' economics group disagree. They believe that the EMU will survive intact, and b

60% ceiling AX 50% =e Debt limit to 3x 40% gov. receipts 30% —> 2x 20% 1x 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 Source: OMB, BEA, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Over the last few days, the Gang of Six plan, the Reid-McConnell plan and the Obama-Boehner plan have all been raised up the flagpole and then lowe

explain how they get to the President’s baseline in the first place. 1 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025221 --- PAGE BREAK --- Eye on the Market | July 25, 2011 J.P Morgan Topics: US debt ceiling negotiations, a more ambitious European bailout plan (finally), and how large cap growth stocks and rising corporate profits

Industrial production Index, 100 = January 2007 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 15 2007 2009 2010 2011 Source: INE, CSO, ISTAT, NSS, Eurostat, Bundesbank, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Periphery = Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain. 2008 * The current EFSF lending capacity is Eur 255 b

EU leaders meeting to finalize a deal March 1 - 30 Central Bank meetings in Brazil, Mexico, Norway, Indonesia, India, Taiwan, Korea, etc Source:. Morgan Prrvate Bank Instead of the traditional EoTM commentary, this week I wanted to share some charts on oil, Europe, equity markets and monetary policy that speak

and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed or or specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by Morgan Chase Bank. • and its affiliates. Securities are offered through.. Morgan Securities LLC (MIS). Member NYSE. FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or s

ment risks. including possible loss of the principal invested. Not all investment ideas referenced are suitable for all investors. Speak with your.. Morgan Representative concerning your personal situation. This material is nor intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Note that. Morgan is not a licensed insurance provider. 0 2011 !Morgan Chase & Co 5 EFTA00610628

al risk across the Arab world has been something of a surprise, although conditions leading to it were well understood for years. As for problems in the European Monetary Union and the impact of tightening policy in Asia, they have been familiar refrains around here for months, and were central to our 2011 Outlook. The whol

Eye on the Market | August 4, 2011 J.P Morgan Today This is a little unorthodox, but here is the text of an internal note that I just sent to our integrated Private Bank client coverage teams a

almost twice the debt load as a percentage of its GDP. Absent a decision by Germany to move to Federalism or a lot more debt monetization by the ECB, the European Monetary Union (as it is currently configured) could be facing its final stretch. Today’s reported move by Italian regulators to seize documents at Moody’s regardin

ient and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A, and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), Member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or

tained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes JP. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the views exp

raising the debt ceiling YS , , + . + . 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 Debt limit to gov. receipts nd Source: OMB, BEA, J.P. Morgan Private Bank Over the last few days, the Gang of Six plan, the Reid-McConnell plan and the Obama-Boehner plan have all been raised up the flagpole and then lower

antee of future results. References to the performance or character of our portfolios generally refer to our Balanced Model Portfolios constructed by J.P. Morgan. It is a proxy for client performance and may not represent actual transactions or investments in client accounts. The model portfolio can be

on IMF International Monetary Fund HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025219 --- PAGE BREAK --- IF Institute of International Finance ECB European Central Bank EMU European Monetary Union AMT Alternative Minimum Tax A White Castle hamburger is smaller than its competitors’ offerings, measuring 2.5 inches square. The material containe

stment risks, including possible loss of the principal invested. Not all investment ideas referenced are suitable for all investors. Speak with your J.P. Morgan Representatiw oonceming your personal situation. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. P

suitable investors through a confidential offering memorandum which fully describes all terms, conditions, and risks. IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: JPAimgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates do not provide tar advice. Accordingly any discussion of U.S. tax matters contained herein (including any attachments) is not int

10-24-11_ EOTM_-_Emu jdromaius_novaehollandiae].pdf Eye on the Market, October 24, 2011 Topics: A biological look at the latest attempt to resolve the European Monetary Union debt crisis; US Q3 earnings The EMU (technical name: Economic and Moneiwy Union, common name: European Moneiwy Union) is beginning to bear more and

and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank. trust and investment management services are provided bvllt Morgan Chase Bank. and its affiliates. Securities are offered through. Morgan Securities LLC (Mak Member NYSE. FNMA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or sold th

ed. Not all investment ideas referenced aresuitable for all investors. These recommendations may not be suitable for all investors. Speak with your. Morgan Representative concerning your personal situation. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale ofany financial instrument. P

eside the point. Last week's EoTM summarized our take on the market, economic, political and investment implications of the continued unraveling of the European Monetary Union. What would change our views? A full-scale German underwriting of the EMU problem. How likely is that? Wenn Schweine fliegen k6nnen (when pigs fly)

antee of future results. References to the performance or character of our portfolios generally refer to our Balanced Model Portfolios constructed by J.P. Morgan. It is a proxy for client performance and may not represent actual transactions or investments in client accounts. The model portfolio can be

Union IMF International Monetary Fund HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031163 --- PAGE BREAK --- IF Institute of International Finance ECB European Central Bank EMU European Monetary Union AMT Alternative Minimum Tax A White Castle hamburger is smaller than its competitors' offerings, measuring 2.5 inches square. The material contained

almost twice the debt load as a percentage of its GDP. Absent a decision by Germany to move to Federalism or a lot more debt monetization by the ECB, the European Monetary Union (as it is currently configured) could be facing its final stretch. Today’s reported move by Italian regulators to seize documents at Moody’s regardin

antee of future results. References to the performance or character of our portfolios generally refer to our Balanced Model Portfolios constructed by J.P. Morgan. It is a proxy for client performance and may not represent actual transactions or investments in client accounts. The model portfolio can be

almost twice the debt load as a percentage of its GDP. Absent a decision by Germany to move to Federalism or a lot more debt monetization by the ECB, the European Monetary Union (as it is currently configured) could be facing its final stretch. Today's reported move by Italian regulators to seize documents at Moody's regardin

antee of future results. References to the performance or character of our portfolios generally refer to our Balanced Model Portfolios constructed by J.P. Morgan. It is a proxy for client performance and may not represent actual transactions or investments in client accounts. The model portfolio can be