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Microsoft Word - 07-25-11 - EOTM - White Castle.docx
60% ceiling AX 50% =e Debt limit to 3x 40% gov. receipts 30% —> 2x 20% 1x 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 Source: OMB, BEA, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Over the last few days, the Gang of Six plan, the Reid-McConnell plan and the Obama-Boehner plan have all been raised up the flagpole and then lowe
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025221 →explain how they get to the President’s baseline in the first place. 1 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025221 --- PAGE BREAK --- Eye on the Market | July 25, 2011 J.P Morgan Topics: US debt ceiling negotiations, a more ambitious European bailout plan (finally), and how large cap growth stocks and rising corporate profits
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025222 →Industrial production Index, 100 = January 2007 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 15 2007 2009 2010 2011 Source: INE, CSO, ISTAT, NSS, Eurostat, Bundesbank, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Periphery = Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain. 2008 * The current EFSF lending capacity is Eur 255 b
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025223 →gn funding needs (including deficits) through 2013 - Billions, EUR 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 Greece package (in one worst-case scenario, Alliance Bernstein estimates that the EU lending facility would have to increase from 440 bn to 1.7 trillion Euros, mostly from Germany). Italy es EFSM 600 400 200 f
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025223 →TOP OPPORTUNISTIC INVESTMENT THEMES FOR 1Q 2012 Global Investment Opportunities Group J.P. Morgan Private Bank w O LLz O a cr, This presentation is intended for your personal use only and should not be circulated to any other person without our permissi
e or sale of any financial instrument. The investment strategies and views expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. including research. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future results. Please read the Important Information at the end of this document
is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used. in connection with the promotion. marketing or recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with JPMorgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Each recipient of this presentation, and each age
g Cost Henry Hub Natural Gas 121 1=1MIP -- Longer Term Liquefaction Pipelines Pipelines Exploration & Production End Users Source: JPMorgan, Alliance Bernstein, Guggenheim Research. Cheniere Energy. Data as of: 12/30/11 SO 30 $2.00 $1.75 $3.50 LNG Costs - $8 Liquefaction E&C firms focused on global
Eye on the Market, July 25, 2011
raising the debt ceiling YS , , + . + . 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 Debt limit to gov. receipts nd Source: OMB, BEA, J.P. Morgan Private Bank Over the last few days, the Gang of Six plan, the Reid-McConnell plan and the Obama-Boehner plan have all been raised up the flagpole and then lower
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025215 →ks). If Italy or Belgium entered Europe’s Liquidity Hospital, a lot more money might be needed from European parliaments (in one worst-case scenario, Alliance Bernstein estimates that the EU lending facility would have to increase from 440 bn to 1.7 trillion Euros, mostly from Germany). Italy faces a multi-notch down
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025217 →antee of future results. References to the performance or character of our portfolios generally refer to our Balanced Model Portfolios constructed by J.P. Morgan. It is a proxy for client performance and may not represent actual transactions or investments in client accounts. The model portfolio can be
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025220 →Eye on the Market, July 25, 2011
ks). If Italy or Belgium entered Europe's Liquidity Hospital, a lot more money might be needed from European parliaments (in one worst-case scenario, Alliance Bernstein estimates that the EU lending facility would have to increase from 440 bn to 1.7 trillion Euros, mostly from Germany). Italy faces a multi-notch down
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031161 →antee of future results. References to the performance or character of our portfolios generally refer to our Balanced Model Portfolios constructed by J.P. Morgan. It is a proxy for client performance and may not represent actual transactions or investments in client accounts. The model portfolio can be
Page: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031164 →Entities connected to both JPMorgan Chase and Alliance Bernstein
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
ORGANIZATIONMichael Cembalest
PERSON
Harry Reid
PERSON
Barack Obama
PERSON
Ronald Reagan
PERSON
Mitch McConnell
PERSON
Eleanor Roosevelt
PERSON
Bundesbank
ORGANIZATIONthe European Monetary Union
ORGANIZATION
the Institute of International Finance
ORGANIZATION
Belgium
LOCATION
Empirical Research Partners
ORGANIZATIONJ.P. Morgan U.S. Private Bank
ORGANIZATION
Eurostat
ORGANIZATION
Moody’s
ORGANIZATION
Office of Management and Budget
ORGANIZATION
FactSet
ORGANIZATION
Maastricht
LOCATIONThe Peterson Foundation
ORGANIZATION
Bernard Connolly
PERSON