Epstein Secrets

1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1954 1967 1981 1995 2008 Source: DepartmentofLabor, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payroll

Eye on the Market | March 15, 2012 J.P Morgan Topics: Is US data as good as it looks? Is Chinese data as bad as it looks? Is European data as bizarre as it looks? What a diff’rence a day makes.

oduction Source: Nationa Bureau of Statistics, PROC, China Automotive Information, China Economic Information Network, CLSA-Markit, Haver Analytics. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. * PMI data areindexlevel. Housingprice toincome, cement production and steel productionare as of

ient and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A, and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), Member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or

tained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the views ex

reau of Statistics, PROC, China Automotive Information, China Economic Information Network, CLSA-Markit, Haver Analytics. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. * PMI data areindexlevel. Housingprice toincome, cement production and steel productionare as of Dec. 2011. All the other

Statistics, PBOC,ChinaAutomptive Infonnatbn, China Economic Information Network, CLSA•Marbt. HaverAnalytics. J.P. Morgan Securities 11O, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. • PMIdata are index levet Housingprice to income. cementpiodudion and steel productional.° as of Dec.2011. All theother dataareas of Feb.2012. Mic

ere is China heading? There is a roiling epistemological debate as to whether China's current decline is structural or cyclical. As an aside, two of JP Morgan's investment banking analysts (one an economist, the other an equity market strategist) have taken opposite sides of the debate, which is in and of it

tained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further. the views expressed

ient and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank. N.A. and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC(JPMS). Member NYSE. FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchase

) is not intended or written to be wed. and cannot be wed. in connection with the promotion. marketing or recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with JPAforgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Note that J.P. Morgan is nor a licensed insurance

nal Bureau& Statistics, PBOC,ChinaAutomptive Infonnatbn, China Economic Information Network, CLSA•Marbt. HaverAnalytics. J.P. Morgan Securities 11O, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. • PMIdata are index levet Housingprice to income. cementpiodudion and steel productional.° as of Dec.2011. All theother d

EU leaders meeting to finalize a deal March 1 - 30 Central Bank meetings in Brazil, Mexico, Norway, Indonesia, India, Taiwan, Korea, etc Source:. Morgan Prrvate Bank Instead of the traditional EoTM commentary, this week I wanted to share some charts on oil, Europe, equity markets and monetary policy that speak

and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed or or specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by Morgan Chase Bank. • and its affiliates. Securities are offered through.. Morgan Securities LLC (MIS). Member NYSE. FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or s

ment risks. including possible loss of the principal invested. Not all investment ideas referenced are suitable for all investors. Speak with your.. Morgan Representative concerning your personal situation. This material is nor intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Note that. Morgan is not a licensed insurance provider. 0 2011 !Morgan Chase & Co 5 EFTA00610628

ning worldwide Billions of barrels/GDP 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 Source. ISI Group. 2004 2007 2010 Two views on the impact of an oil price shock %decline GDP 0.0% Australian • U.K Euro land Japar• Brazil • Poland Hungary •

and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank. trust and investment management services are provided bvllt Morgan Chase Bank. and its affiliates. Securities are offered through. Morgan Securities LLC (Mak Member NYSE. FNMA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or sold th

ed. Not all investment ideas referenced aresuitable for all investors. These recommendations may not be suitable for all investors. Speak with your. Morgan Representative concerning your personal situation. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale ofany financial instrument. P

ng up again Residential units sold. 5-day moving average 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Oc -09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Source: BCA Research, ISI Group. Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 EFTA00751567 Some clarifications are in order. First, inflation in China is mostly related to food (32% of Chinese CPI).

tters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Note that J.P. Morgan is not a licensed insurance provider. O 2010 JPAlorgan Chase & Co 5 Proposition 25 reduces the legislative vote required to pass a budget to a simple majority from a two thirds majority. Proposition 26 broadens the

0 Oct-09 Dec.09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Source: National Bureau of Statistics, J.P. Motgan Securities, LLC. Source: BCA Research, ISI Group. Some clarifications are in order. First, inflation in China is mostly related to food (32% of Chinese CPI). Chinese govern- ment responses have a d

m"; it is used less often to increase growth rates of biomass itself. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030814 --- PAGE BREAK --- Eye on the Market November 21, 2011 J.P.Morgan Topic: The quixotic search for energy solutions Today's US energy reality: electricity generation Before exploring why some of these ideas did not pa

ied to be conservative. I am sure you will let me know if I wasn't. 2 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030815 --- PAGE BREAK --- Eye on the Market November 21, 2011 J.P.Morgan Topic: The quixotic search for energy solutions Question #3: What if the world ends up relying on coal for the next 100 years, and seeks to prevent f

2 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Source: The Intemational Council on Clean Transportation, United Source: ISI Group, International Energy Agency, World Bank. Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. There is also room for reduced fuel consumption, althoug