Epstein Secrets

Eye on the Market July 11, 2011 J.P.Morgan Topics: Portfolios, US corporate profits and the Twilight of the Gods in the US, Europe, China and the IEA) Here's what our U.S. Balanced portfolio l

, 5% Balanced Diversified Model Portfolio Hedge Funds, _Private equity, 6% 5% Real Estate Single Strategy 3% Hard Assets, Hedge Funds, 4% 18% Source: J.P. Morgan Private Bank, as of July 2011. These portfolios may not be suitable for all investors & are shown for illustrative purposes only PROFITS The primary (and perhaps

nd 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 benefits as a percentage Total increase in pre-tax margins of revenue Source: Corporate reports, Empirical Research Partners. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Source: Standard & Poor's, Empirical Research Partners. Last week's train wreck of a labor rep

decade. Some of these assumptions seem aggressive to apply in perpetuity. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030808 --- PAGE BREAK --- Eye on the Market July 11, 2011 J.P.Morgan Topics: Portfolios, US corporate profits and the Twilight of the Gods in the US, Europe, China and the IEA) Hourly compensation for production worker

gn debt restructuring within the next 18 months (see chart from "Five Stages of Greece", June 30, 2011). Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer * JP Morgan's Prime Money Market Fund is indicative of industry concerns about a liquidity squeeze. The fund holds no Greece, Portugal, Ireland or Spain. Its Italy

1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1954 1967 1981 1995 2008 Source: DepartmentofLabor, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payroll

Eye on the Market | March 15, 2012 J.P Morgan Topics: Is US data as good as it looks? Is Chinese data as bad as it looks? Is European data as bizarre as it looks? What a diff’rence a day makes.

-2 25% “4 2.0% 6 < 0 -8 1.5% 10 1.0% -12 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1954 1967 1981 1995 2008 Source: DepartmentofLabor, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BEA, OMB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. ' Our chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau

oduction Source: Nationa Bureau of Statistics, PROC, China Automotive Information, China Economic Information Network, CLSA-Markit, Haver Analytics. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. * PMI data areindexlevel. Housingprice toincome, cement production and steel productionare as of

ient and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A, and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), Member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchased or

tained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the views ex

60% ceiling AX 50% =e Debt limit to 3x 40% gov. receipts 30% —> 2x 20% 1x 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 Source: OMB, BEA, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Over the last few days, the Gang of Six plan, the Reid-McConnell plan and the Obama-Boehner plan have all been raised up the flagpole and then lowe

explain how they get to the President’s baseline in the first place. 1 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025221 --- PAGE BREAK --- Eye on the Market | July 25, 2011 J.P Morgan Topics: US debt ceiling negotiations, a more ambitious European bailout plan (finally), and how large cap growth stocks and rising corporate profits

Industrial production Index, 100 = January 2007 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 15 2007 2009 2010 2011 Source: INE, CSO, ISTAT, NSS, Eurostat, Bundesbank, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Periphery = Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain. 2008 * The current EFSF lending capacity is Eur 255 b

Statistics, PBOC,ChinaAutomptive Infonnatbn, China Economic Information Network, CLSA•Marbt. HaverAnalytics. J.P. Morgan Securities 11O, ISI Group, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. • PMIdata are index levet Housingprice to income. cementpiodudion and steel productional.° as of Dec.2011. All theother dataareas of Feb.2012. Mic

ere is China heading? There is a roiling epistemological debate as to whether China's current decline is structural or cyclical. As an aside, two of JP Morgan's investment banking analysts (one an economist, the other an equity market strategist) have taken opposite sides of the debate, which is in and of it

tained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further. the views expressed

ient and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank. N.A. and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC(JPMS). Member NYSE. FINRA and SIPC. Securities products purchase

) is not intended or written to be wed. and cannot be wed. in connection with the promotion. marketing or recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with JPAforgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. Note that J.P. Morgan is nor a licensed insurance

6 2.0% • -8 1.5./. • -10 1.0% 12 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1954 1967 1981 1995 Source: Depanmentot Labo r, BLS, Empirical Research Partners. Source: CBO, BE ,OMB. Morg an Private Bank The importance of the US consumer Private Investment Gov. Net Billions of USD Consumption Spend

Eye on the Market | april 9, 2012 J.P Morgan Q&A on the USA, with a watchful eye on the risk of giant man-eating plants; Spain Our view for 2012 was that economic and equity market conditions

SAAR million units 1.0 10 0.5 0.0 -0.5 mJapan -1.0 mUS+Other -1.5 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: BEA/Wards, DB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Box indicates impact Source: DB, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Shadings indicate Cash for of Japanese earthquake. Clunkers and Japanese earthquake, resp

6.4 4 | 20% 29 10% 27 2.5 0% 2.3 -10% °” Lennar KBHome Toll Hovnanian DR Horton NVR Pultegroup 2001 2008 2008 200% e008 ann .. Source: BuildFax. Empirical Research Partners. Source: Corporate Reports. Empirical Research Partners. Has the data really been that good? I heard better US economic data has a lot to do with th

ient and is serviced through distinct legal entities licensed for specific activities. Bank, trust and investment management services are provided by JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A, and its affiliates. Securities are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), Member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC, and its affiliates globally as lo

tained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those of Michael Cembalest and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the views ex

raising the debt ceiling YS , , + . + . 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 Debt limit to gov. receipts nd Source: OMB, BEA, J.P. Morgan Private Bank Over the last few days, the Gang of Six plan, the Reid-McConnell plan and the Obama-Boehner plan have all been raised up the flagpole and then lower

on. Attractive valuations for US large cap growth stocks Percent g% 7 70, 70 Nominal free cash yield Post-dividend free cash flow margin Source: Empirical Research Partners Q2 earnings season in the US is off to a good start. Nearly 30% of the S&P has reported, and results have generally been positive. Earnings are beat

antee of future results. References to the performance or character of our portfolios generally refer to our Balanced Model Portfolios constructed by J.P. Morgan. It is a proxy for client performance and may not represent actual transactions or investments in client accounts. The model portfolio can be

2005 2007 2000 2011 Lennar KBHome Toll Hovnanian OR Horton NVR Pultegroup Source: Corporate Reports. Empinaal Research Partners. Source: BuildFax, Empirical Research Partners Has the data really been that good? I heard better US economic data has a lot to do with the weather. Parts of the US experienced the warmest March

million units 1.0 id 0.5 0.0 nn oS Ss oo BJapan -1.0 BUS+Other 4 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 4 2009 2010 2011 2012 source: BEA Wards DB, J.P. Morgan Privale Bank. Box indicates impact Source: DB, JP. Morgan Private Bank. Shadings indicate Cash for of Japanese earthquake, Clunkers and Japanese earthquake, respe